458
FXUS61 KLWX 132026
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west through Friday night.
A warm front is expected to move through Saturday afternoon
before a cold front tracks across the area by Sunday morning.
A secondary cold front sweeps through on Monday. High pressure
briefly returns, but another quick moving low pressure may
approach from the west Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Locally we remain in a tight pressure gradient between low
pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over the
lower Ohio and Mississippi Valleys. The gusty northwesterly
winds and dry air combined with dry fuels is resulting in
elevated fire weather conditions which will continue until
sunset.

The surface high will move over the southern Appalachians
tonight. Skies should be mainly clear except some thin high
clouds. It may be a night of widely varying temperatures, as
ridges and exposed areas will likely keep a light west wind and
only drop into the mid 30s. Areas which can decouple completely
will fall close to the dew points in the mid 20s to around 30.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be one of the more quiescent days of the week as
the center of high pressure settles over the southeastern
states. Winds will be much lighter, accompanied by seasonable
temperatures. Mid level clouds will begin to increase through
the afternoon however. As a secondary lobe of high pressure
north of Lake Ontario will help strengthen the thermal gradient
along a warm front that develops southeastward from a low
pressure system over the northern plains. Temperature forecasts
have trended upward Friday night as more areas are expected to
experience mostly cloudy skies. The clouds will hold
temperatures in the 40s. The northeastern edge is uncertain
though, with some areas northeast of the Potomac still
potentially dropping in the lower to mid 30s. The warm/moist
advection combined with an upslope component to the wind may
allow some light showers to form along and west of the Allegheny
Front the second half of the night.

Upper ridging flattens as it moves toward the east coast
Saturday ahead of a trough in central Canada. A secondary low
will form along the frontal zone and translate across the Great
Lakes. The main question for the daytime hours is how quickly
the warm front progresses through the area and how thick cloud
cover is. These factors could result in a temperature gradient
between mid 50s across northeastern Maryland and close to 70 in
central Virginia. The morning should remain dry east of the
Allegheny Front (where some upslope showers may continue).
Things get a bit more interesting during the afternoon and
evening as vorticity advection and the left exit of an upper jet
streak approach and interact with the warm frontal zone. Winds
are generally westerly above the surface, and most models
indicate showers tending to dry up as they move east of the
mountains. The highest chance of rain will be across northern
areas and the Alleghenies, but even then, rainfall amounts may
be fairly light. Another aspect is that there may be enough
instability to combine with the shear to produce some enhanced
(but generally low topped) convection. SPC has highlighted areas
west of the Alleghenies in a Marginal Risk for severe weather,
with the thought that any convection will be weakening and
elevated in nature as it crosses our area during the evening.
The trailing cold front will approach during the second half of
the night, which may result in some additional showers moving in
from the northwest. It will be mild, as clouds and the warm
sector keep temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s. Winds will
start increasing across the higher elevations through the night,
and especially after the cold front crosses. Some gusts in
excess of 40 mph are possible on the exposed ridges.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By Sunday, the area of low pressure over the Great Lakes will be
shifting into the northeast CONUS, pushing the cold front through
the region likely by early in the day. This will usher in much drier
and cooler conditions. Current forecast is for temperatures in the
low to mid 60s, but given recent faster trends with the frontal
passage, could see that go down in the coming days. Either way,
should expect temperatures to come back down closer to average for
mid-November. Gusty northwest flow is expected behind the front as
well, with gusts to 25 to 35 mph Sunday afternoon (isolated higher
gusts in the mountains).

High pressure briefly returns in the wake of this area of low
pressure Sunday night into Monday. Gusty northwest winds continue,
albeit about 5 to 10 mph lighter than Sunday overall. Pending the
amount of rain that does manage to fall on Saturday night into
Sunday morning, some fire weather concerns could arise as well, see
the fire weather discussion below for details.

Another area of low pressure approaches the region Monday night into
Tuesday, but this time out of the Central Plains. There is seemingly
very little moisture connection with this system, and a lack in
substantial upper-level forcing. So, as a result, this will likely
be pretty low impact in terms of precipitation. However, it will
usher in even cooler temperatures, likely pushing the region below
average into Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A dry forecast ahead through Friday will maintain VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Gusty W/NW winds of 20-30 kt
this afternoon will subside with sunset as high pressure
approaches from the west. By Friday, winds will be much lighter
than recent days, but still can`t rule out some rogue gusts up
to 20 kt.

A warm front will approach the area Friday night and gradually
lift north across the area Saturday. Ceilings will gradually
lower but largely remain VFR. MRB, BWI, and MTN have the highest
chance of seeing MVFR during this time. Those terminals also
have the highest chance of seeing some showers during the
afternoon and into Saturday night as the associated cold front
approaches. There`s low potential (less than 20 percent) of a
few embedded thunderstorms with this activity.

A strong cold front will be sweeping through the region and offshore
Sunday morning, ushering in dry and cool air. This will also bring
some gusty NW winds along with it on Sunday, with gusts in the 25 to
30 knot range. VFR conditions are expected during this time, with
winds being the primary concern. Gusty NW winds will then continue
on Monday, but decrease to around 20 to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
A tight pressure gradient is resulting in strong W/NW winds
today. Small Craft Advisories cover all waters through 5 PM.
Even though interior waters will decouple, a northwesterly
gradient remains overnight. Colder temperatures over the warmer
waters result in advisory conditions persisting along the bay
into the night, longest in the mid bay. The advisories have been
extended as a result. Overall winds will be much lighter on
Friday, remaining W/NW. However some occasional gusts of 18-20
kt are possible. At this time, the situation would favor a
marine weather statement versus additional advisories, but will
continue to monitor.

A warm front lifts through the area Saturday, resulting in a
wind shift to the south. Winds will likely remain light through
the day, ramping up quickly during the evening when advisories
will likely be needed.

Gusty NW flow behind a strong cold front will likely yield wind
gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range, which would necessitate SCAs. Gale-
force gusts can`t completely be ruled out over the northern portions
of our waters either, but doesn`t look likely at this time. Winds
will taper down a bit on Monday, but should still be well in the SCA
range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement for elevated fire danger is in effect
through 5 PM this afternoon for most of the area except north
central/northeast Maryland and west of the Allegheny Front. Behind a
clipper-like system, a breezy westerly wind will dominate today with
gusts to around 25 to 30 mph (35 to 45 mph over the mountains). This
lowers relative humidities into the 20 to 35 percent range east of
the Alleghenies (35 to 50 percent for the Alleghenies). Some
isolated locations are even nearing Red Flag conditions this
afternoon, so the Storm Prediction Center has actually highlighted
our area in the enhanced fire danger category. This is somewhat rare
in this region, so it is always pretty notable when this occurs.

Poor recoveries seem likely again tonight in the higher elevation
locations above 2000 feet or so due to the high pressure moving
directly overhead. This could especially be an issue for ongoing
fires in those higher elevation locations.

Looking ahead to Friday, conditions are again dry, but with winds
decreasing as high pressure tracks in. While conditions may not
quite be met for a Fire Danger Statement for most areas, the ridges
could see wind gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range Friday afternoon.
While RH values may not be quite as low as today, thinking that the
combination of weather conditions and antecedent dry conditions on
the ground could lead to an active day for any ongoing fires,
especially along the Allegheny Front and in the Potomac Highlands.

Winds will pick up Saturday afternoon out of the SW, but RHs
should be rapidly increasing during this timeframe as well. This
is in response to a warm front lifting through the region. Some
rain is possible on Saturday night into Sunday morning as the
cold front pushes through. Rainfall amounts look to be a tenth
of an inch or less unfortunately, which will do little to
provide any long-term relief.

Further drying and additional gusty northwesterly winds are expected
on Sunday behind a strong cold front. This continues into Monday,
which is likely to be the next really dry day post-front. Depending
on the final totals from Saturday, this could be the next day to
look at for really concerning fire weather potential.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ530>532-
     538>540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ533-534-537-
     541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CJL
AVIATION...ADS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/CJL
FIRE WEATHER...CJL