518
FXUS61 KLWX 041427
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
927 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No changes this morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Above normal temperatures continue with the first rain chances
in two weeks Thursday and Friday.

- 2) Cooler temperatures and mountain showers expected this
  weekend as another strong front crosses early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures continue with the first
rain chances in two weeks Thursday and Friday.

Broad high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to
maintain above normal temperatures and quiet conditions through this
evening. Expect light winds out of the south and southeast (gusting
15-20 mph) yielding highs for most in the low to mid 70s. A few
locations could punch into the upper 70s in the lee of Alleghenies
and south/east of Washington, D.C. this afternoon given increased
southerly flow. Mostly sunny skies to prevail giving way to
increasing cloud cover during the afternoon and evening as the
incumbent trough/front approach from the Ohio River Valley.

After a 2+ week hiatus, rain chances return from the west late
tonight into Thursday and Friday. This is largely due in part to the
ridge of high pressure shunting east and an incumbent trough/front
entering from the upper Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Model
consensus continues to trend downward on widespread rain chances
with this system given the bulk of the forcing north and west of the
region. Most of the guidance has low pressure ejecting out of the
northern Great Lakes into eastern Ontario with it`s associated cold
front ejecting from the Ohio River Valley Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon. The front will stall along and east of I-95
Thursday night into Friday. Another area of low pressure will
develop along the front down across the Carolinas riding north to
the Delmarva and southern New England coast Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning. As a result, expect the greatest rain chances
along west of the Alleghenies and in areas along/east of I-95 with
somewhat of a skip in between. Rainfall amounts will range between a
quarter to a half an inch areawide through Friday with locally
heavier totals along and east of I-95 (southern MD) as well as over
the mountains. Highs will remain in the upper 60s and low 70s
Thursday and Friday despite the added cloud cover (low 60s
mountains). West to northwest flow may contribute to some
downsloping east of the mountains leading to the warmer conditions.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler temperatures and mountain showers expected
this weekend as another strong front crosses early next week.

One upper level trough exits with a more potent one to follow toward
the back half of the weekend into early next week. Upslope showers
may linger over the mountains and in locations east of I-95 Saturday
morning as the upper level trough/cold front push offshore. Weak
high pressure will build from the south Saturday afternoon into
Sunday ahead of a more pedant trough heading into the first half of
next week. Once again the main forcing with this system will be up
toward the Hudson Bay of Canada while the resultant surface fronts
cross the region. Overall guidance has trended downward in
precipitation with this system with any shower chances Sunday and
Monday confined to the mountains. These areas have a better bet of
precipitation given the terrain influence compared to the locations
further east where any mentionable forcing is lacking. Broad 1020-
1022 mb high pressure builds back in from the southeastern US Monday
into Tuesday with another cold front to follow by the middle of next
week. Overall synoptic pattern turns zonal for much of next week.

Seasonable temperatures are expected to return this weekend and into
much of next week. Highs will settle back into the upper 50s and mid
60s (40s mountains). Overnight lows will fall back into the 30s and
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through tonight outside of some patchy
sub-VFR vsbys from fog this morning. Winds will remain out of the
south and southeast with occasional gusts between 15-20 kts this
afternoon and evening. High pressure pushing offshore and an
incumbent cold front/trough from the west will yield in the uptick
in winds this afternoon. Any patchy fog will occur through 13z/8am
this morning before quickly burning off just beyond sunrise. The
greatest confidence for fog will be at terminals along and east of I-
95, in particularly close to waters.

VFR conditions continue into Thursday although brief sub-VFR
reductions are possible at times with showers Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon. PROB30s will be added between 06-18z time window
for the greatest coverage of showers as the front pushes across.
Additional PROB30S/prevailing lines will be needed for rain chances
Thursday night into Friday as the front stalls in the vicinity of
the I-95 corridor terminals. South to southwesterly winds continue
at less than 15 kts.

Additional sub-VFR reductions are possible at times Friday into
Saturday as a secondary trough of low pressure moves along the
stalled front to the east of the corridor. Winds will shift to the
west Friday and eventually northwest Friday night into Saturday. VFR
conditions return Saturday into Sunday with another round of sub-VFR
conditions late Sunday into Monday as a secondary cold front pushes
through.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through this morning. Winds will
remain light out of the south and southeast as high pressure pushes
offshore. By this afternoon into Thursday, expect the potential for
southerly channeling due to the high offshore and incumbent trough
from the northern Ohio River Valley. Confidence in this occurring is
low with a focus over the middle and open waters.

Low pressure and a strong cold front will work across the waters
Thursday into Friday. Widespread showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon through Friday
afternoon. Winds will remain around SCA levels both days with west
to northwest gusts up to 20 kts. Weak high pressure returns Saturday
before another strong front crosses late Sunday into Monday. This
front will bring a greater likelihood of SCA conditions across the
waters heading into early next week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EST
AVIATION...BRO/EST
MARINE...BRO/EST