900
FXUS61 KLWX 060531
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
131 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Previous forecast remains on track. Showers slowly drifting
south into central/southern Virginia. Should exit FA by
daybreak.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures and lower
  humidity today into early parts of the week.

- 3) Shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier conditions with seasonable temperatures
and lower humidity Sunday into early next week.

Broad high pressure over the Great Lakes will track over the
Mid-Atlantic through Mon. This will bring a change in airmass
with notably lower dew points. Highs in the low 80s for most
today and Mon. Overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

Sfc high pressure begins to transition south of the Mid-
Atlantic on Tue as upper level ridging builds over the
SE. Temps likely begin to creep up again during this time,
accompanied by increasing humidity as mid-level dry air tracks
S of the region with more humid air coming in from the N.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower and thunderstorm chances return by mid
week.

Upper-level ridging over the Appalachians starts to flatten into
zonal flow beginning Wed. As this occurs, a trough forming over
Quebec will begin to track east across NE, with a stemming cold
front moving across the East Coast by Thu. Temps gradually
increase during this time, along with increasing humidity ahead
of the front. By Thu, temps potentially reach the lower 90s
across the metros.

As this frontal boundary tracks through the Mid-Atlantic, additional
shower & t-storm activity is possible across the region
beginning Wed evening and into Thu. As of the 00Z model runs,
the GFS and ECMWF both indicate a Thu afternoon time of arrival
for most precip, but the exact coverage and nature of
precip remains uncertain. Some diurnal t-storm development
remains possible during this period given the increasing
instability in the atmosphere by this time.

As this cold front transitions offshore towards the end of next week,
temps drop again & conditions become much drier heading into
the weekend as high pressure moves in overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few showers may linger over the next few hours near CHO, but
these will be more or less off and on.

Thereafter, VFR conditions should persist through Wed evening.

Showers & t-storm associated with an incoming cold front could
temporarily bring sub-VFR conditions to terminals beginning
Thu afternoon. Ahead of the front on Thu, winds could gust
between 20-25 knots before diminishing overnight. S`ly winds
shift NE`ly by Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are expected through the holiday weekend.
Generally light flow is expected, though onshore gusts could
approach marginal SCA levels late this afternoon. Currently
favoring a Marine Weather Statement given brief duration.

NE`ly winds Mon shift S`ly on Tue, remaining below SCA levels.

SCAs are possible across the Bay by Wed evening ahead of an
incoming cold front. Winds could remain elevated throughout
Thu as this frontal boundary tracks east across the coast.
S`ly winds shift NE`ly Thu night in the wake of the front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies remain elevated over the next several days due
to an onshore flow. Minor tidal flooding is possible at
Annapolis, and could also be possible in the other sensitive
tidal locations in the northern Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJL/CPB/SRT
AVIATION...CJL/CPB/SRT
MARINE...CJL/CPB/SRT