394
FXUS61 KLWX 060730
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
330 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain offshore early this week. A strong
cold front will move through during the middle of the week. High
pressure will build back in behind the cold front for the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies remain clear this morning and winds have gone calm in most
locations. This has allowed for efficient radiational cooling,
and temperatures have dropped back to near the dewpoints in the
50s as a result. Patchy fog is also beginning to form in spots,
especially to the east of the Blue Ridge. Any fog will quickly
burn off after sunrise this morning. Sunny skies are expected
for all today. Winds will be light out of the south with high
pressure in place offshore. Temperatures will run well above
average, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most (70s in the
mountains).

Skies will stay mostly clear tonight. Winds will likely remain
light out of the south, which should act to limit fog formation
relative to previous nights. However, some guidance hints that
patchy fog may be possible across northeastern Maryland.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than preceding nights,
with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will retreat further offshore on Tuesday while
heights simultaneously start to fall aloft ahead of an upper
trough moving through the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase
throughout the day, and showers will become possible to the
west of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon hours. Showers and
potentially a stray thunderstorm or two are expected areawide
Tuesday night as large scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
approaching trough increases. The system`s cold front will move
through the area from northwest to southeast late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Rain will come to an end and winds will
shift to out of the northwest behind the front. Rain with this
system should be beneficial in nature given the ongoing drought
conditions across much of the area. Precipitation totals are on
average expected to be around a half of an inch.

Some breaks of sunshine may be possible late Wednesday afternoon
as low-level moisture scours out behind the front. Winds will
likely gust to around 20 to 30 mph out of the northwest
Wednesday afternoon. Much colder air will advect into the area
as high pressure builds to our north Wednesday night. As of now,
Wednesday night looks like it may be the coldest night of the
season thus far, with most locations dropping into the upper 30s
and lower 40s. Frost and/or freezing temperatures may be
possible in sheltered mountain valleys where winds go calm.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Thursday, a broad longwave trough will be in the process of
lifting toward the Canadian Maritimes. In the wake, a brief lull in
the jet pattern is noted before a closed low evolves somewhere
across the eastern U.S. by the upcoming weekend. Ensembles are
fairly consistent in the evolution of such a feature. It appears
this system becomes centered in the vicinity of the Carolinas and
southeastern U.S. The guidance favors an inverted surface trough
extending near this negative height anomaly. Additionally, a number
of solutions support low pressure development along this trough
axis. As this system slowly pulls northward, it would bring
increasing shower chances to the I-95 corridor and points eastward.
This would mainly occur during the second half of the weekend,
possibly into early next week. However, uncertainty is fairly high
with the strength and position of this trough/low configuration.

A shift to below average temperatures is likely for much of the
period. This is in response to the strong dome of Canadian high
pressure setting up over the Great Lakes to northeastern U.S.
Forecast highs on Thursday and Friday are in the low/mid 60s, with
50s across the mountains. Chilly nights also lie ahead with possible
frosty conditions west of the I-95 metros on Thursday night.
Temperatures rebound slightly into the weekend, but this could be
too optimistic given the northerly flow and possible rain/cloud
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy fog could potentially develop over the next few hours,
especially to the east of the Blue Ridge. Any fog that forms
should quickly dissipate after sunrise, giving way to VFR
conditions for all. Winds today will be light out of the south.
Conditions should remain VFR tonight. A few models hint that
some fog or low clouds may form late tonight across northeastern
Maryland, but the current thinking is that southerly winds
should help to suppress fog development.

High clouds will increase through the day tomorrow, but
conditions are expected to remain VFR through the daylight
hours. Showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will move
through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, potentially
leading to sub-VFR conditions at times. Conditions will improve
back to VFR by Wednesday afternoon as a cold front clears the
area. Winds will shift from southerly ahead of the cold front to
gusty out of the northwest behind the front.

VFR conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday with dry weather
during this period. A strong area of Canadian high pressure builds
over the Great Lakes into the northeastern U.S. Initial winds will
be out of the north-northeast on Thursday with afternoon gusts to
around 15 to 20 knots. Winds eventually shift to easterly by Friday
with a downtick in wind speeds.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will gradually increase out of the south over the course
of the day today. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for
the main channel of the Bay this evening through tonight where
gusts to around 20 knots will be possible within channeled southerly
flow. Small Craft Advisories may be needed across all waters on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds should be out of the south Tuesday
into Tuesday night, before turning out of the northwest behind
a cold front on Wednesday.

Behind an earlier cold front, breezy north-northeasterly winds are
expected on Thursday. This will likely necessitate Small Craft
Advisories as gusts rise to around 20 knots. Winds shift to easterly
by Friday with wind gusts falling to 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Anomalies are expected to hold relatively steady over the next
few days within southerly flow, before decreasing behind a cold
front in northwesterly flow on Wednesday. Several sites may
potentially reach into Action stage around the time of high tide
today and tomorrow, but no flooding is expected.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ530>534-539>541.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJP