704
FXUS61 KLWX 201440
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
940 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and dry conditions look to continue through tonight with weak
wedging high pressure nearby. Rain chances return Friday into early
Saturday as an area of low pressure and series of fronts cross the
region. High pressure briefly builds back into the area Sunday and
Monday. Another wave of low pressure and front look to cross the
area Tuesday into the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to push east across northern New England
today while remaining wedged east of the Appalachians. This will
lead to the continuation of a weak/hybrid CAD set up across the area
which will promote abundant cloud cover compared to sun. Some
filtered sun has been noted up across central/northeast MD this
morning and will likely linger into the mid-afternoon before cloud
cover fills back in from the west as low pressure advances toward
the region.

Winds will remain light and variable this morning before switching
to the south and southeast later this afternoon and evening. This
may help scrub out some of the low level cloud cover east of the
Alleghenies with increasing mid and high level cloud cover expected
through the afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours.

Overall it will be another cloudy/gray day across the region with
cool daytime temps and relatively mild lows. Highs will range from
the low to mid 40s along the PA/MD border to mid 50s across the
central VA Piedmont/Shenandaoh Valley. Lows will fall back into the
upper 30s and low to mid 40s with increased clouds and light
south/southeast winds at less than 10 mph. Dry conditions will
prevail for most locations with perhaps some patchy
drizzle/sprinkles across the western slopes of the Allegheny
Mountains at times this afternoon and evening.

Patchy fog is possible again late tonight given increased low level
moisture across the region. Confidence is low due to increased cloud
cover although areas north of I-66/US-50 could see a few breaks
leading to greater fog development. Dry conditions will prevail with
rain moving into the western mountains and Shenandoah Valley at or
around daybreak Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The high pressure wedge will attempt to break down and lift away
as a warm front lifts toward the Mid-Atlantic ahead of low
pressure over the Midwest. Milder temperatures are expected as a
result Friday into Saturday.

As low pressure approaches, forcing for ascent will increase.
Broad troughing aloft attendant to the surface low will scoot
across the region through early Saturday resulting in widespread
rain, albeit light. Amounts of 0.10-0.25" are expected with
locally higher amounts possible in the terrain.

Although showers are possible with the warm front lifting
through during the day Friday, more widespread rain is expected
Friday night as the low makes its closest approach.

The system`s cold front will move through early Saturday. This
should bring the threat of rain to an end by roughly midday for
most of the region. Temperatures will again be mild as cold
advection behind the front is weak and lags a bit.

Northerly winds and clearing skies should bring temperatures
down into the 20s and 30s Saturday night with dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad upper-level troughing pivots off the East Coast Sunday
and Monday ahead of a ridge moving overhead Tuesday. At the
surface, high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic Sunday
through Monday morning ahead of a cold front pushing through the
forecast area Monday afternoon. A low pressure system tracking
across the Great Lakes from the central Plains pushes the
associated frontal systems through the forecast area Wednesday.

Dry conditions are expected Sunday through Monday morning with high
pressure in place. Precipitation chances begin increasing along the
Alleghenies Monday afternoon as the aforementioned cold front
approaches from the northwest. Precipitation chances overspread the
area Tuesday and linger through Wednesday. Overall, beneficial rain
showers are expected Tuesday with showers becoming more isolated in
nature on Wednesday.

High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s each day with highest
elevations staying in the upper 40s. Overnight low temperatures drop
into the 30s and 40s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overall looking at MVFR conditions amongst the terminals this
morning with a pocket of IFR conditions in and around the Potomac
Highlands. MVFR conditions look to persists throughout the day at
most of the terminals given light onshore northeast to southeasterly
flow. Some improvements to VFR are possible later this morning and
into the evening, especially across central and northeast MD (i.e
BWI and MTN) where cigs have already lifted. This is due largely in
part to light northeast winds switching to the southeast this
afternoon which will weaken a subsidence inversion aloft. As a
result, expect less low level clouds and a scattered/broken mid-high
level cloud deck.

With increased low level moisture expect a continuation of a chaotic
cigs forecast as most of the terminals bounce between low end VFR
and MVFR throughout the day with pockets of IFR mainly west of a
line from MRB/CHO as low pressure approaches from the Ohio River
Valley. AMDs will be needed throughout the day to encompass these
near term trends. Cloudy skies continue tonight with rain shower
activity moving into locations west of KMRB/KCHO near daybreak
Friday. Some fog is also possible in areas that see breaks within
the clouds. Highest confidence for this would be north of KIAD and
KDCA although uncertainty remains with added cloud cover.

Winds shift to the south Friday as a warm front lifts through. Some
sub-VFR conditions are possible in lower CIGs and -RA at times.
Low pressure and its cold front will follow Friday night into
Saturday with increasing potential for lower CIGs and VSBYs due to
more widespread rain through early Saturday morning. VFR is expected
to return by Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves away and
drier air moves in.

VFR conditions are expected Sunday and Monday as high pressure
builds over the region. Light southerly winds around 5 knots on
Sunday shift to westerly on Monday, increasing slightly to 5 to
10 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Light north to northeast flow is expected through this morning,
becoming more southeasterly this afternoon. Dry but cloudy
weather is expected through tonight.

Winds shift to southerly Friday as a warm front lifts through.
This warm front may bring a few rain showers. An area of low
pressure and its associated cold front will glide across the
area Friday night into early Saturday bringing more widespread
rain. Winds may increase out of the south for a time ahead of
the low late Friday, then increase a bit more readily in the
wake of the cold front Saturday. SCAs are possible late Friday
through Saturday before winds become lighter under building high
pressure Saturday night.

Surface high pressure builds over the waters Sunday and Monday.
Southerly winds on Sunday shift to westerly on Monday with winds
expected to stay below SCA criteria.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...EST
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...AVS
AVIATION...AVS/DHOF/EST
MARINE...AVS/DHOF