181
FXUS64 KLZK 141144
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A weak stationary SFC boundary is draped over portions of central
AR...generally along/north of the AR River Valley east of Little
Rock...to along the I-40 corridor east of Little Rock. This is where
areas of convection have developed and moved east over the past
couple hrs as weak disturbances pass over this SFC boundary around
the base of an upper shortwave centered over SERN MO. This area will
continue to be the focus for convection this morning. The primary
concern with this setup will remain locally heavy rainfall as any
new convection will likely train over the same areas along or
in vicinity of the SFC boundary. Some potential for flash flooding
will exist with this training convection. While the SVR threat is
limited...this convection has occasionally pulsed up to
strong...briefly SVR levels. Large hail will be primary threat with
strongest TSRA...with some strong winds also possible.

By later this morning...the upper shortwave will shift east...with
the morning training convection potential decreasing as the upper
energy shifts east. Flow aloft will be NW behind this upper
shortwave by this afternoon...and a new upper disturbance over SRN
KS may trigger new convection NW of AR. This upper disturbance will
move SE into AR during the afternoon hrs...with a potential complex
of convection dropping SE into AR. With the SFC boundary remaining
nearby...and any outflows from morning convection in the area...the
potential for a complex of SHRA/TSRA if they develop...should drop
SE along/south of these SFC boundaries...where instability should be
best. Further north...less instability will be seen with some weak
NRLY flow and potential remaining cloud cover.

Latest hi-res guidance suggests this possible complex weakening as
it drops SE over central/SERN AR...but there may be enough
instability ahead of this complex in this region of the state to see
this system progress further SE with some decent intensity. Some
other factors that could limit the system moving too far SE would be
the the weak SWRLY SFC flow away from the SEWD moving
convection...and with relatively weak NW flow aloft. As with any NW
flow generated convective systems...the primary threat would be
damaging winds...with some large hail also possible.

All this to say...this is all dependent of convection forming W/NW
of AR by midday. Otherwise...some marginally severe
isolated/scattered convection may be seen...more of the pulse-type
summertime convection from afternoon heating...especially near any
residual outflow boundaries.

For Sun into Sun night...another upper shortwave will be dropping
E/SE north of AR...with some upper disturbances dropping SE into the
state. This could be the trigger for additional convection for Sun
into Sun night. Timing...intensity...and overall organization of any
convection is uncertain as details regarding this convective
potential are unclear. Even so...some additional convection will
remain possible into the latter half of the weekend. Whatever
develops could become strong...maybe briefly SVR. Some locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible with any TSRA that develops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

NW upper flow is anticipated to be in place between an upper ridge
over the Srn Rockies and an upper trough centered just W and
parallel to the MS River. Surface winds will be S/SWrly ushering
plenty of rich gulf moisture into the region through at least Friday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday as the upper
trough axis slowly moves across the region. Best PoP chances will be
over Ern AR ahead of the upper trough. Precipitation should diminish
from NW to SE through the early evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday appear have the least coverage and lowest PoP
chances thus far owing to no notable features moving across the Srn
CONUS. Can not totally rule out some diurnally driven convection
although activity should be sparse. One more upper level system is
progged to sweep across the region on Thursday as the ridge out W
flattens and gives way to a progressive low amplitude trough
swinging across the nations mid-section.

While a few storms could become strong to severe through Thursday,
the threat for organized severe weather appears low at this time.
Gusty winds would be the primary thunderstorm hazard followed by
large hail. With aforementioned NW flow in place at times in
combination with multiple systems expected to pass through this
flow, the potential of MCS activity is possible and will need to be
closely monitored via hi-res CAM guidance. If MCS`s develop, the
threat for damaging winds will increase markedly across the state.

Thursday evening into Friday should feature an expanding amplifying
upper ridge over the Srn CONUS, aka more typical pattern you`d
expect to see in mid-June. With this summer time pattern in place,
temperatures will climb and rain chances will dwindle due to large
scale subsidence over the region. These conditions can be expected
to last into the weekend.

High temperatures are expected to range from the mid 80s to low/mid
90s with lows generally in the 70s. Heat index values most days
should range from 90 to 100 degrees with the warmest readings
arriving mid to late week. Some location may see heat index values
between 100 and 105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected across Cntrl and E AR. PoPs
should decrease by mid-morning, with scattered SHRA/TSRA
redeveloping during the afternoon across Cntrl and Srn AR. Due to
low confidence, went with PROB30`s to account for afternoon
convection. Over Nrn AR, thinking an MCS will develop and move SE
into the state from KS/OK/MO this afternoon. Outside of
convection, VFR conds are expected to prevail. Winds should be SW
at around 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  69  88  71 /  20  10  40  20
Camden AR         88  71  86  71 /  50  30  60  20
Harrison AR       84  67  84  68 /  10  10  40  30
Hot Springs AR    87  71  87  71 /  50  20  50  10
Little Rock   AR  87  72  86  72 /  50  20  50  20
Monticello AR     87  72  85  72 /  60  30  70  20
Mount Ida AR      86  70  85  71 /  50  20  50  20
Mountain Home AR  84  68  86  68 /  10  10  40  30
Newport AR        87  71  90  73 /  20  10  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     87  72  86  72 /  50  20  60  20
Russellville AR   87  71  88  72 /  40  20  50  20
Searcy AR         87  71  88  71 /  40  10  40  20
Stuttgart AR      86  74  88  74 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70