290
FXUS64 KLZK 301649
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1049 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 + Cold air has settled over the area in the wake of the cold
   front that moved through earlier in the weekend.

 + Temperatures will struggle to get out of the mid 30s Monday as
   moisture overspreads the area resulting in out first taste of
   winter weather this season.

 + Guidance is now indicating less snow and more in the way of
   freezing rain starting Monday morning. Overall amounts will
   be light and impacts generally minor but there remains the
   possibility of higher ice amounts in central Arkansas.

 + Temperatures will run well below seasonal averages the entire
   period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Residual showers continue over far southern Arkansas at this time
but are largely expected to be south of the CWA very early this
morning. Latest guidance indicates sub freezing temperatures will
be in place by sunrise across all but the SE part of the state in
the wake of the frontal system that brought the widespread showers
to the area Friday night and Saturday.

Quasi-zonal flow will be in place today across the state but surface
high pressure to the north will keep low level winds out of the
N/NE. After starting out the day in the mid 20s to mid 30s,
temperatures are only expected to rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Meanwhile, a strong upper trough will be digging into the central
Rockies during the day Sunday. Surface low pressure is expected to
develop along Saturdays frontal boundary which will be stretched out
along the gulf coast come Monday morning. As the western trough
sharpens up, it will be located over the TX/OK panhandles midday
Monday and moving through Arkansas Monday night, taking on a
positive tilt as it does. This will turn the upper flow back to the
southwest while surface winds remain generally out of the N/NE.

Low level warm air advection and a surge of gulf moisture will
overrun the sub freezing surface temperatures starting early on
Monday. Thermal profiles continue to show some light snow over
the far north but widespread, albeit light, freezing rain is
looking increasing likely over the majority of the CWA. Models
are indicating the cold air trying to retreat with most of the
guidance now pointing towards more icing as opposed to snow.

Amounts of ice accretion look to be just a few hundredths
but there could be areas where upwards of a tenth of an inch of
ice is possible. Overall minor impacts are expected as deepest
moisture does not stick around for very long with precipitation
ending from NW to SE Monday night. Winter weather advisories will
likely be hoisted for this event but with model uncertainty
remaining (although they are in better agreement versus the past
few nights)and the onset of the winter weather not until later
Monday morning, will hold off for the time being on any winter
weather headlines.

Temperatures on Monday will struggle to get out of the mid 30s but
are expected to be back in the 40s Tuesday so longer term impacts
should be minimal. Temperatures warm a little more on Wednesday
before a fast moving cold front knocks them down once again.
Overall, temperatures will average well below seasonal averages
through the entire period. The next chance of precipitation will
be Thursday with some light winter weather possible over the north
but the set up is not nearly favorable as what we will see Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR flight category will begin the period across all sites around
midday on Sunday. Surface winds may gust in excess of 21 knots at
the terminals of KPBF and KLLQ to begin the period for which I have
included TEMPO groups to capture this. Sites will begin to notice
precipitation move across the state on Monday morning which will be
in the form of light snow and periods of a light wintry mix across
the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK, light freezing rain and
light sleet across the western and central terminals of KHOT, KLIT,
KADF, and KPBF. The site of KLLQ is anticipated to experience light
rain. The precipitation both wintry and non-wintry is expected to
last through the remainder of the forecast period from Monday
morning until midday. Additionally, CIGS will lower to MVFR flight
category in tandem with precipitation arrival across the terminals
of KHOT, KADF, KPBF, and KLLQ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     24  36  26  42 /   0  40  50   0
Camden AR         29  36  26  44 /  10  60  60  10
Harrison AR       22  32  22  42 /   0  40  30   0
Hot Springs AR    27  35  24  45 /  10  50  60   0
Little Rock   AR  27  36  28  43 /  10  50  50  10
Monticello AR     30  38  30  43 /  10  70  70  10
Mount Ida AR      27  37  24  47 /  10  50  50   0
Mountain Home AR  22  33  23  41 /  10  30  40   0
Newport AR        26  37  26  41 /   0  40  50  10
Pine Bluff AR     28  36  27  42 /  10  60  70  10
Russellville AR   27  37  26  45 /  10  50  40   0
Searcy AR         25  36  24  42 /   0  50  50  10
Stuttgart AR      27  36  27  41 /   0  60  60  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...74