510
FXUS64 KLZK 221746
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1246 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- A period of relief from the extreme heat will continue today
  through Friday due to recent weak cold front passage.

- Upper level ridge will build back over Arkansas late this
  weekend into early next week.

- Low RH value, deep layer mixing, and amplified compressional
  heating will allow temperatures to soar well above 100 degrees.

- Heat Products will likely be once again warranted across parts
  of the state beginning late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

WEDNESDAY (TODAY) through FRIDAY:

In the upper lvls, the ridge fixated from the Four Corners region of
the CONUS to the Southern Plains region of the CONUS is beginning to
elongate or de-amplify along the eastern flank of the ridge as a
northern-stream shortwave trof digs through the Great Lakes and Ohio
River Valley regions of the CONUS resulting in the driving of the
surface cold front across Arkansas. A transition to northwesterly
flow over the state of Arkansas will allow a slightly cooler,
continental airmass to spill into the state in wake of the surface
cold front. In response, Arkansas will experience a few days in
which air temperatures will be a few degrees below normal to values
which are anticipated as normal for this time of the year.

At the sfc, in tandem with the cold front which is moving across the
state of Arkansas, a region of high pressure will move into the
Central Plains region of the CONUS and result surface winds out of
the northeast to east-northeast across Arkansas. The surface winds
will be critical in allowing the advection of a slightly cooler and
drier airmass into the state over this period. The only appreciable
day for POP chances will be on Friday as the proximity of a
localized surface low pressure center and stationary boundary will
provide a limited, but present chance for scattered rain and a few
thunderstorms, especially across northern and eastern Arkansas.

SATURDAY through TUESDAY:

In the upper lvls, the region of high pressure is progged to expand
back eastward over Arkansas and intensify for the remainder of the
forecast period. The established upper lvl region of high pressure
will lead to subsidence or sinking air over Arkansas which will
promote dry conditions.

At the sfc, the cold front that is currently moving southward across
Arkansas is forecast to become a stationary boundary in northern
Louisiana, but then progress northeastward as a warm front back
across Arkansas over the weekend. In tandem with the strengthening
overhead ridge, the passage of this surface warm front will allow
south-southwesterly winds to become present at the surface across
Arkansas advecting in a combination of warm temperatures and Gulf
moisture that will once again transpire into increased air
temperature values, increased dewpoint temperatures; therefore, high
temperatures across the state are expected to surge again back to
near and above the century mark across most of the state by the
following workweek along with heat indices which will warrant heat
products and likely reach well into the triple digit values between
105 to 115+ degrees across most of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the forecast period
across a large part of Arkansas. The exception will be across
far southeast Arkansas, where low level moisture is being
transported northward into far southeast Arkansas ahead of
Tropical Storm Bertha. At this time, have elected to put in a
tempo group at KLLQ for MVFR ceilings. HREF and BUFKIT soundings
show a return to MVFR ceiling around Thursday morning across
parts of southeast Arkansas. Light north/northeast winds will veer
to the southeast on Thursday morning across all TAF sites with an
isolated gust up to 17 knots possible in the late morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  87  68  90 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         72  92  72  94 /   0  10   0  10
Harrison AR       67  86  67  89 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    72  91  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  72  89  70  92 /   0   0   0  20
Monticello AR     74  91  74  93 /   0  10  10  30
Mount Ida AR      71  90  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  67  84  67  87 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        70  86  68  90 /   0   0   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     72  90  72  92 /   0  10   0  20
Russellville AR   72  90  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         70  88  69  91 /   0   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      72  90  72  92 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...76