045
FXUS64 KLZK 160715
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
215 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through Sunday under
strong high pressure. By Monday, high pressure will still be over
the area but some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
a good portion of the state. The best chance for these storms will
be over central and southern locations. CAMs are showing a typical
summer-like pop-up shower pattern where some areas could see half an
inch or higher in accumulation where areas down the road do not see
anything at all. The chance for severe weather is low at this time,
however, a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
The main hazard with these storms would be hail and damaging wind
gusts.

Temperatures are expected to be HOT Sunday with highs in the
90s...some southern locations could reach 100 degrees during the
afternoon hours. A slight "cooldown" is expected Monday with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Humidity will make heat index values
slightly higher. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper ridge will be situated over the ERN CONUS at the start of
the long term period...with SW flow aloft over the SRN Rockies into
the NRN Plains. AR will be between these two features...allowing
weak upper waves to lift north from the Gulf along the SWRN
periphery of the upper ridge to the east/NE. Chances for convection
will remain on Tue afternoon as these disturbances lift over
AR...with best POPs expected during the peak heating of the
afternoon hrs Tue. Chances for convection will again be seen on
Wed...but coverage will be lesser and more of the regular diurnally
driven convective summer-time pulse nature.

By later in the week into the weekend...the upper ridge to the east
of AR will gradually elongate and expand to the SW towards the SRN
CONUS...with AR under more influence of this upper ridging. Chances
for afternoon convection look to decrease as a result...and temps
warming from the cooler conditions earlier in the period where
clouds and precip were more expansive. Even with this upper ridge
expanding...there will be at least some small potential for
afternoon convection each day into the end of the forecast for some
portion of the state...just much more isolated in nature.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period under
high pressure. Winds will be mostly light and variable overnight
then becoming south/southwesterly Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     96  74  89  72 /   0   0  50  10
Camden AR         96  72  90  70 /   0   0  50  10
Harrison AR       91  71  89  70 /   0   0  20  10
Hot Springs AR    96  73  90  70 /   0   0  40  10
Little Rock   AR  97  76  91  73 /   0   0  50  10
Monticello AR     97  74  89  72 /   0   0  70  10
Mount Ida AR      94  72  89  70 /   0   0  40  10
Mountain Home AR  93  72  88  70 /   0   0  30  10
Newport AR        96  76  91  73 /   0   0  50  10
Pine Bluff AR     96  74  90  71 /   0   0  50  10
Russellville AR   96  74  91  71 /   0   0  40  10
Searcy AR         96  74  89  72 /  10   0  50  10
Stuttgart AR      96  76  89  73 /   0   0  50  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...73