342
FXUS64 KLZK 280525
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Quiet conditions exist across the region early this morning with
mainly clear skies, sans the southwest, where cloud cover is more
prevalent. Some patchy fog is also showing up on some of the
local observations, especially in those areas that experienced
the heaviest rain last night. Temperatures have already fallen
into the 60s across the state and still expecting widespread lows
in the 50s by daybreak.

Overall not to many value changes will be made to the forecast
this morning as guidance has not deviated much from its previous
thinking. Upper pattern remains highly amplified with upper
ridging over the western high plains, bookmarked on both ends by
troughing. Pattern places the CWA squarely in NW flow aloft which
looks to prevail through the entire forecast cycle.

On the surface, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide
dry conditions for the majority of the day but some of the CAMS
guidance is bringing some precipitation into the NW corner of the
state by late in the afternoon. High temperatures will be their
coolest over the west and northwest where cloud cover will be
more significant in these areas. Highs will range from the mid 70s
where clouds are expected to near 90 where they are not.

Precipitation chances will increase through Wednesday night as a
stout upper wave rides the aforementioned NW flow but POPS really
start to ramp up Thursday, as an MCS will likely be ongoing
somewhere in the SE Kansas/SW Missouri/NE Oklahoma area and
heading in our direction. System will bring showers and storms to
the state on Thursday, increasing in coverage as the day
progresses.

Guidance is showing a significant outflow boundary developing
over NW Arkansas by mid afternoon which will initiate another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be
on the stronger side, especially over SW AR where dew points will
be higher and some decent CAPE will reside.

Rain chances will continue through most of Thursday night and
into early Friday with POPS decreasing from north to south and
then being confined to the AR/LA border by early afternoon.
Several inches of precipitation will be possible for the majority
of the state as these waves of precipitation move through.

A few leftover showers can not be ruled out over the south early
Saturday but the majority of the holiday weekend is looking dry.
Temperatures will be cooler than average on Thursday and Friday
with widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation chances
before starting to rise over the weekend. Widespread highs in the
70s on Friday, with even some 60s in the higher terrain areas,
will quickly turn into widespread 80 degree readings by the end
of the period. However, NW flow will be keeping relatively dry air
over the region with dew points in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

An increase in overnight SHRA/RA activity should bring MVFR/IFR
CIGs to Nrn sites before 12z, then spread SEwrd through the
daytime on Thurs. Mentioned TSRA over Cntrl/Srn sites during the
PM associated with a stronger upper level disturbance passing
through the flow. Winds may become gusty between 15-30 kts near
convection with reduced VIS`bys near these storms, otherwise winds
should be E/SE at around 10 kts. MVFR/IFR CIGs should remain in
place across the state through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  58  78  60 /  90  50  30  10
Camden AR         86  64  76  65 /  80  90  80  30
Harrison AR       66  59  73  58 / 100  50  30  10
Hot Springs AR    75  63  75  64 /  90  90  60  20
Little Rock   AR  70  63  75  65 /  80  80  50  20
Monticello AR     85  65  78  65 /  70  90  70  30
Mount Ida AR      76  63  74  63 /  90  90  60  20
Mountain Home AR  68  58  76  59 /  90  40  20   0
Newport AR        70  60  79  62 /  80  50  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     79  63  76  64 /  80  90  60  20
Russellville AR   71  63  76  63 /  90  80  40  10
Searcy AR         70  61  76  62 /  90  70  40  10
Stuttgart AR      72  63  76  64 /  80  80  40  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ004-103-112-113-203-212-
213-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...70