050
FXUS64 KLZK 142348
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
648 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A few strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an MCS over
portions of western Arkansas ahead of an MCS in eastern Oklahoma
this afternoon. A look at current hi-res CAMs shows the initial
MCS will move east-southeast across the state through the Little
Rock metro area in the 4-6 pm time frame. This lines up with
current thinking as a glance of IR shows warming cloud tops within
the MCS currently and the environment over portions of northwest
and western Arkansas being tempered now by ongoing convection or
previous convection from this morning. A strong wind gust or two
is still possible associated with the decaying MCS before it
dissipates over portions of central/eastern Arkansas by early
evening.

By tonight, upper shortwave will drop south into south/south
central Kansas and north central/northeastern Oklahoma initiating
an MCS over the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms as
far east as western, northern, and central Arkansas. Hi-res CAMs
and other short term guidance at this time keeps the MCS out of
the state as it move south over eastern Oklahoma on Sunday. A few
strong storms are possible over portions of Arkansas along the
residual boundary draped northwest to southeast across the state
overnight into the day on Sunday. The primary hazard will be
strong gusty winds with at least a limited potential for large
hail.

For Monday and Tuesday, upper level trough axis will move across
the region with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms
as ridge axis over the southern US flattens and pushes well east
of the eastern coast of Florida into the Atlantic in response to
the eastward advancing trough.

As we head into Wednesday, a brief period of drier conditions will
return to Arkansas as ridging builds back west over the southern
and southeast US into Arkansas ahead of the next upper level
storm system moves east across the central Plains. The upper
level storm system will move across the state on Thursday with
chances for showers and a few strong to severe thunderstorms. A
look at current deterministic guidance shows bulk shear of 30-40
kts and CAPE values in the order of 2000-2500J/kg, particularly
over portions of northeast, central, and eastern Arkansas Thursday
afternoon. The primary hazards at this time would be damaging
winds and large hail given the parameters. It should be stressed
that timing, placement, and strength of the upper level system can
and will change as we get closer in time.

As we head Friday through the weekend, ridging over the southeast
will further expand westward and strengthen with dry conditions
prevailing but with hot and humid conditions likely across the
state with heat indices of 100-105 range are looking increasing
likely next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Across all but south Arkansas, precipitation has been on the
downward trend and is expected to continue through the overnight
hours. However, do expect to see another storm system approach NW
Arkansas near 12z and pushing to the SE before dying out around
18z. Similar today, expect another line of storms to fire just
before 00z across portions of central Arkansas. So needless to
say, a difficult TAF forecast lies ahead. However, am fairly
confident most terminals in central and northern Arkansas will
remain quiet until 12z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  86  70  84 /  20  30  20  50
Camden AR         72  87  70  86 /  30  70  30  50
Harrison AR       68  83  67  83 /  20  40  30  40
Hot Springs AR    71  87  70  86 /  30  60  20  50
Little Rock   AR  72  86  72  86 /  30  50  20  50
Monticello AR     73  88  72  87 /  30  70  30  60
Mount Ida AR      71  88  69  87 /  30  60  20  50
Mountain Home AR  68  84  68  83 /  10  30  30  50
Newport AR        72  88  72  85 /  10  20  20  50
Pine Bluff AR     72  87  71  86 /  40  60  30  60
Russellville AR   71  86  70  87 /  30  50  20  50
Searcy AR         70  86  70  86 /  30  40  20  50
Stuttgart AR      72  86  72  86 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...65