378
FXUS64 KLZK 072324
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
624 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of W, SW, S, SE AR today

- Scattered showers/storms are possible over SW AR this afternoon

- Backdoor cold front may bring lower heat indices today and Tuesday

- Upper level pattern shift by late week may introduce rain
  chances

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Abnormally hot and dry conditions will continue across much of AR
beneath an expansive upper ridge. This ridge is expected to remain
nearly stationary over the Srn Plains through middle part of this
week. Resultant large scale forcing for subsidence should inhibit
widespread organized convection through at least Wednesday.

Currently, a weak backdoor cold front was moving across the state
from NE to SW. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop over portions of SW/W/S AR later this
afternoon along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it becomes
nearly stationary over the ArkLaTex`s region. Brief gusty winds
would be the main thunderstorm hazard with any strong storm.
Temps over SW/W/S AR will be hot thanks to compressional warming
ahead of shower and thunderstorm development. Across this portion
of the state, highs may range from 100 to 105 degrees. A Heat
Advisory is also in effect across the aforementioned locations
through this evening for heat index values up to 110 degrees.

Elsewhere, winds will be E/NErly behind the front with highs
topping out in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values peaking
below 105 degrees as slightly drier air advects into the state
from the NE. Drier air will stick around into Tuesday for a large
part of the state before winds switch to the S/SW on Wednesday
with the retreat of aforementioned front.

Long range ensemble guidance is depicting weakening/retrograding
of the ridge in the Thursday through Saturday time frame with
broad NW flow becoming established. Unsettled weather might make
a return on Thursday through Saturday while also introducing
slightly cooler temps to the state. Highest PoP chances will be
over the Nrn half of AR each of these days. Unfortunately Srn half
of AR may not see much appreciable rainfall during these three
days. Beyond this period, the ridge is expected to slowly build
back into the region with rain chances dwindling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Isolated SHRA and TSRA over parts of western, southwestern, and
northwest Arkansas is expected to dissipated within an hour or so
of sunset this evening. Light and variable winds will persist
through early Tuesday morning, then become E/NE but remain light
through the end of the forecast period. Some afternoon diurnal CU
and isolated SHRA and TSRA again possible Tuesday afternoon, but
likely closer to frontal boundary across far southern Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  99  73 101 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         71 100  73  98 /   0  10   0  20
Harrison AR       67  97  72  98 /  10   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    71 101  74 100 /  20   0  10  10
Little Rock   AR  72  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     73  99  75  96 /   0  10   0  10
Mount Ida AR      69 100  71  99 /  20  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  66  96  70  99 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        68  98  75 100 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     70  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   70  99  73 101 /  20   0   0  10
Searcy AR         68  99  72 100 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      71 100  76  99 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ031-032-039-
042>047-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-
240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ042-052>055-
062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...76