183
FXUS64 KLZK 211058
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
558 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An upper level ridge continues to retrograde west. Subsidence will
continue over the area and will result in decreased rain chances.
Expect dry conditions today and Saturday.

Highs today and Saturday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. With
dew points remaining in the 60s today, heat indices should remain
below advisory criteria. Some dew points will climb into the lower
70s Saturday increasing the heat indices slightly. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 60s to mid 70s and in the lower to mid 70s Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The period will begin with a large ridge of high pressure wobbling
toward the southern Rockies/southern Plains. We will be under the
eastern periphery of the ridge, with well above average temperatures
expected. A weak northwest flow aloft will guide a cold front toward
Arkansas from the central Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley Sunday into
Monday. It appears the front may get as far as southern Missouri
before exiting back to the north by Tuesday.

Moisture will increase a bit ahead of the front, and cannot rule out
isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms. These will be very
spotty, and most of us will not get rain. More importantly, as
moisture levels tick higher, heat index values will become
oppressive. Maximum heat indices will range from 100 to 110 degrees
across much of the state Sunday through Tuesday. Heat Advisories
will likely be required.

By Wednesday, a trough of low pressure will cut through the upper
Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. A northerly
flow aloft will become more pronounced locally, and that will bring
another cold front toward the area. This front may have enough legs
to make it into if not through Arkansas. Better chances of showers
and thunderstorms will accompany the front, followed by slightly
cooler/drier and less oppressive air to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

High pressure continues to build over the area from the east. The
latest KLZK sounding indicates dry air aloft. Expect hot and dry
conditions to continue with VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  71  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         94  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       89  69  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    93  71  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  94  75  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     94  73  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      91  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  90  69  93  73 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        94  74  95  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     92  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   93  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         93  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      91  75  94  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...51