715
FXUS64 KLZK 171046
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN
546 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

-A Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather is forecast
 across the northern half of Arkansas on Wednesday. Into portions
 of central and southern Arkansas, a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of
 5) will be present across most locations.

-The hazards associated with the possibility of severe weather on
 Wednesday will be damaging wind gusts (in excess of 60 mph),
 large hail (quarter-sized), and the tornado threat is very low
 (although, non-zero).

-From Friday through Sunday, intense temperatures build into
 Arkansas (mid to upper 90s) along with sultry dewpoint
 temperatures (low to mid 70s). The combination of oppressive
 temperatures and dewpoint temperatures will lead to a likely need
 for heat related products (likely in the form of a Heat Advisory)
 as heat index values across a large part of the CWA and state of
 Arkansas will meet or exceed 105 degrees in many locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Forecast Period: Tuesday (Today) through Monday

TUESDAY (TODAY)/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:

In the upper lvls, continued shortwaves will pass through the
overall flow pattern over the state with a pronounced SWT progged
to near the state by Wednesday. At the sfc, a sfc trof will keep
POPs elevated across the CWA and much of Arkansas during this
timeframe; however, a defined cold front will move across the
state on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening from northwest
to southeast which will present the opportunity for strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of this boundary
as it sweeps across the state.

Expect continued elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the CWA and Arkansas over this period as the combination of
a sfc trof in close proximity to the state as well as cold front
that will sweep across the state throughout the day on Wednesday
will keep POPs elevated. The risk for severe weather has been
explained above in the "KEY MESSAGES" section during the day on
Wednesday. Temperatures over this period will be near normal for
middle transitioning into later June.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:

A H500 ridge becomes centered over the state to end the workweek
and begin the weekend and will move east-northeastward over the
Mid- South region of the CONUS by the late weekend and the Mid-
Atlantic region of the CONUS by the beginning of next week. Noted
will be a digging trof over the Western CONUS to end this
timeframe. At the sfc, a center of high pressure meanders across
the region and moves off to the east of Arkansas which the
clockwise flow around this feature will advect surface gulf
moisture or increased dewpoint temperatures into the state which
in tandem with increasing temperatures building across the state
via the upper lvl ridge will likely present the need for heat
products in the form of Heat Advisories to be issued across parts
of the CWA and state of Arkansas.

Expect a hot and overall dry period across the CWA and Arkansas.
POP chances will diminish to near zero and fair weather conditions
will be present over this four-day period. As mentioned above
heat products may be needed as intense air temperatures and
dewpoint temperatures overtake the state (especially on Friday,
Saturday, and Sunday). It will be a must to exercise heat safety
and recognize that you will need extra hydration and rest out of
the direct exposure of the heat regardless if you are working or
recreating over this period as this airmass will be quite the
transition from what we have experienced across the CWA and
Arkansas over the past several weeks. Temperatures provided a
stout upper lvl ridge and advecting of moisture into Arkansas will
lead to temperatures with respect to both morning lows and
afternoon highs over this period forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees
above average temperatures expected going into late June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A mixed bag of lowered CIGS and VSBY to MVFR, IFR, and
intermittentLIFR flight category across most terminals as
lowered ceilings and patchy dense fog continues to persist across
the state and will continue to do so into later Tuesday morning.
TEMPO groups have been utilized to show improving conditions with
the FROM group holding onto the degraded flight conditions early
this morning. All sites will improve to VFR by mid-day on Tuesday
and remain throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
Vicinity TSRA has been added at the northern terminals of KHRO and
KBPK for Tuesday evening as a boundary will near northern
Arkansas presenting the opportunity for a few isolated
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  74  90  71 /   0  10  50  60
Camden AR         92  74  93  72 /  20  10  10  40
Harrison AR       90  72  86  68 /   0  10  60  30
Hot Springs AR    92  74  92  72 /  10   0  20  50
Little Rock   AR  91  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  50
Monticello AR     90  75  93  75 /  40   0  10  40
Mount Ida AR      92  74  91  71 /  10   0  20  50
Mountain Home AR  90  72  86  68 /   0  10  70  40
Newport AR        91  75  92  73 /  10  10  40  60
Pine Bluff AR     91  74  93  73 /  20  10  10  50
Russellville AR   93  74  91  72 /  10  10  40  50
Searcy AR         91  73  91  72 /  10  10  30  50
Stuttgart AR      90  76  91  74 /  20  10  10  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74