195
FXUS64 KLZK 061021 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
521 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

-Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing today
and especially for Sunday

-Chances for rainfall start decreasing early next week...with
mainly dry conditions by the middle/latter half of next week

-Overall threat for organized severe weather low through the
period...but some isolated strong to severe weather may be seen

-Oppressive heat may settle across the region next week...with
 heat headlines becoming possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

An upper low over SW TX early this morning will gradually lift NNE
into KS by this evening. SW flow aloft will increase over the state
through this same timeframe...with persistent SRLY SFC flow
continuing. Weak upper disturbances will lift NE over portions of AR
in the SW flow aloft...with some more coverage of convection
possible than seen in previous days as a result. Best POPs will
remain over WRN sections...but should see chances for SHRA/TSRA
shift further east than in recent days.

The unsettled pattern will continue through Sun as SW flow aloft
continues...and weak upper waves pass overhead. Chances for
convection will increase further...and shift further east as well.
By early next week...flow aloft will become more WRLY as the upper
low becomes a more open wave...and moves east over NRN AR. POPs will
shift north in closer proximity to the upper wave...with best POPs
over NRN AR on Mon.

By the middle of next week...expect the chances for precip to
decrease as upper flow become less significant over the region. Even
so...enough weakness in the upper flow may exist to see some
isolated afternoon convection during the middle of next week.

The overall threat for seeing any organized SVR Wx and widespread
heavy rainfall through the period remains low due to no major
systems expected to pass through the region. However...some isolated
strong/SVR convection may be seen each day into Mon...along with the
potential for locally heavy rainfall that may result in isolated
flash flooding.

By the middle to latter half of next week...upper riding will
intensify over the region. Chances for precip will decrease
further...and temps will gradually rise into the upper 80s to mid
90s for highs. Humidity levels will remain high...which should
result in some near critical heat index levels. Some spots may see
hot/humid conditions as early as Mon/Tue. However...many areas may
see oppressive heat by mid-week...continuing through the rest of
next week. If this trend looks to come to fruition as currently
forecast...heat headlines may be needed sometime next week as a
result of oppressively hot conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Scattered SHRA and some TSRA chances will increase throughout
today...with central to NRN terminals seeing the best potential
for seeing precip. SERN sections will still see possible
convection...but less likely. Conditions under the most intense
activity may drop to MVFR or lower conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  70  84  72 /  40  40  80  70
Camden AR         84  71  85  72 /  50  50  70  30
Harrison AR       76  67  80  70 /  60  80  80  60
Hot Springs AR    82  72  84  73 /  60  60  70  60
Little Rock   AR  84  71  85  72 /  50  60  80  50
Monticello AR     85  72  86  74 /  50  30  70  20
Mount Ida AR      80  71  83  73 /  70  60  70  50
Mountain Home AR  77  68  80  70 /  50  50  70  80
Newport AR        86  71  86  73 /  30  40  80  70
Pine Bluff AR     85  71  85  73 /  40  40  70  30
Russellville AR   81  71  85  74 /  70  70  90  80
Searcy AR         85  70  86  71 /  40  50  80  60
Stuttgart AR      86  73  86  74 /  40  50  80  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62