975
FXUS64 KLZK 280730
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
230 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will persist into the
 week.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the work week.

-Some appreciable rainfall is possible this weekend across the
 state, but confidence in amounts remains low.

-An active weather pattern will develop over much of the CONUS
 next week bringing additional rain chances to the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Current surface observations shows light and variable winds with
clear skies over most of Arkansas. Temperatures early this morning
are in the upper 40s into the lower 50s. Lows will bottom out in
the upper 40s to 50s. Light and variable winds will prevail
through the early morning hours, then light southeast winds during
the day across Arkansas.


In what seems like a broken record, dry conditions with above
normal temperatures will continue through Friday across the
state. High pressure currently over the southeastern US will begin
to deamplify later today in response to shortwave trough over
Kansas lifting northeast today. As we head into Thursday, both
deterministic models show the ridge building back westward into
the mid south Thursday and southern Plains on Friday.

On Friday into Saturday, the subtropical jet moves over much of
the mid south with a couple of embedded shortwaves passing
through the state on Saturday and Sunday. Latest deterministic
runs of the ECMWF and GFS shows most of the state will generally
see around half an inch of rainfall with some localized higher
totals of an inch or greater across southern Arkansas. The latest
12z 90th percentile ECMWF ensemble shows rainfall amounts of a
half inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall over most of
Arkansas. Additionally, the 12z 90th percentile ensemble run also
shows totals over one inch across parts of far east, northeast,
and southeastern Arkansas.

The mean ensemble 12z run shows a quarter inch of rainfall mainly
over the eastern half of the state with lesser amounts elsewhere
within the state. A look at the 12z ensemble GFS 90th percentile
shows rainfall amounts in the quarter to one half range with
locally higher totals across far east, northeast and southeast
Arkansas up to three quarters of an inch. The latest mean 12z GFS
ensemble shows rainfall amounts of tenth to a quarter inch of
rainfall with locally higher totals up to one half inch across
east, northeast, and southeast Arkansas. Nonetheless, confidence
continues to increase that rainfall totals between one quarter to
one half inch will be common this weekend across the state with
locally higher totals up to 1 inch possible.


As we head into early next week, the state will see a lull in
active weather as a short wave ridge moves across the mid south
and Arkansas providing a period of generally dry weather. At the
same time, a highly amplified synoptic trough/cut off low will
move into the four corners region on Monday, then into the
southern Plains on Tuesday. There are timing and placement
differences as expected with deterministic guidance with
progression of the strong synoptic trough/cutoff low. With that
being said, there is some severe weather potential. The latest
deterministic runs shows a 50kt+ mid level jet, CAPE values
around 500 J/kg, and bulk shear values in the range around 50kt
will owe to multiple hazards being possible. That being said,
timing of the synoptic trough and placement of the warm sector
will be key to the extent of severe weather potential.


Temperatures this weekend through the middle of next will around 5
to 10 degrees above normal for late October into early November
across the state.




&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High level
cloudiness over far eastern part of the state will move completely
out of the state within the next couple of hours. Light and
variable winds will persist through sunrise, then light southeast
winds are expected across TAF sites until sunset. Skies will be
SKC through around mid morning, then some mid and high level
cloudiness will stream into the southern half of the state from
the southern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     83  51  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         86  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       81  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    84  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  85  53  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     84  51  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      83  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  80  53  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        82  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     85  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   84  52  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         84  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      85  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76