138
FXUS64 KLZK 062305
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Heat Advisories are in effect for entire CWA today

- Scattered showers/storms are possible this afternoon/evening

- Backdoor cold front may bring lower heat indices Monday and Tuesday

- Upper ridge ensures hot/dry wx persists through middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Summer-like weather pattern will continue across AR beneath an
expansive upper ridge. This ridge is expected to strengthen heading
through early part of next week which should increase large scale
forcing for subsidence over the Srn MS Valley. This will serve to
inhibit widespread organized convection through middle part of next
work week. Having said that, PoP chances remain the forecast today
(20%-30%) due to the approach of a backdoor cold front; additional
information on this will be provided below.

As the ridge intensifies and a surface boundary approaches the state
from the NE today, temps are expected to climb into the upper 90s to
around 105 degrees. Given this, a heat advisory is in effect through
this evening for the entire Little Rock County Warning Area (CWA)
where heat index values between 105 and 110 are expected. If early
afternoon precip does not develop as expected or stalls by just a
few hours, heat index values could exceed 110 in places before
clouds, precip, and rain cooled outflow boundaries develop.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon/evening associated with backdoor cold front pushing into
the state from the OH Valley. Compressional warming and moisture
pooling ahead of the front should aid in convective initiation
between 12PM and 4PM. Damaging winds would be the main hazard
with any of the stronger storms. Despite better PoP chances than
this time yesterday, little to no appreciable rainfall expected to
occur in an particular location.

A brief reprieve from apparent T`s is expected on Monday and Tuesday
with the arrival of NE surface winds behind a weak frontal boundary.
Relief should be temporary as winds are forecast to switch to the
S/SW on Wednesday with the retreat of aforementioned front. The good
news for now is heat index values are anticipated to fall short of
advisory criteria for Monday and Tuesday across the Little Rock CWA.

Long range ensemble guidance is depicting a potential
weakening/retrograding of the ridge in the Thursday through Saturday
time frame which could open the door for weather systems to move
towards the state. Beyond this period, the ridge is expected to
slowly build back into the region with rain chances dwindling.

Outdoor burning is highly discouraged across the state with all
counties now highlighted by "high" wildfire danger. Burn bans occupy
all but 3 of 75 AR counties. These 3 counties were mainly confined
to N-Cntrl/Cntrl AR where some beneficial rainfall occurred in the
last one to two weeks. With little to no appreciable rainfall in the
forecast through at least middle part of next week, decreasing
soil moisture will increase the statewide wildfire threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Isolated SHRA and TSRA is expected to dissipate within a couple of
hours of either side of sunset. Expect mainly SKC skies overnight
with light and variable winds across the state into early Monday
morning. Light E/NE on Monday with more afternoon diurnal CU and
isolated SHRA and TSRA. As with the previous couple of days,
confidence remains lows on timing/impacts but terminals impacted
by SHRA or TSRA will see gusty outflow winds from SHRA/TSRA and a
brief drop to MVFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  98  67 100 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         73 100  70 100 /  20  20  10   0
Harrison AR       70  95  68  97 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    75 100  71 101 /  20  10   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76  99  72 100 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     75  98  72  99 /  20  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      73 100  69 101 /  20  20  10   0
Mountain Home AR  70  95  66  97 /  20   0   0   0
Newport AR        73  97  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     74  98  70  98 /  20   0   0   0
Russellville AR   75  99  71 100 /  20   0   0   0
Searcy AR         73  98  69  99 /  20   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      75  99  72 100 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ042-052>055-
062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...76