625
FXUS64 KLZK 132314
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 548 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- A few PM showers/storms possible over northern Arkansas today

- Upper ridge to settle back over the region which will provide
  dangerous heat and little to no rainfall

- Some relief from the heat is possible next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Regional WSR 88D radars depicted a complex of showers and
thunderstorms ongoing over SErn KS, SWrn MO, and NErn OK. This
complex was associated with a weak upper level disturbance within
background Wrly upper flow along and just ahead of a surface
boundary draped across Srn MO. This activity is expected to diminish
in coverage and intensity, owing to increasing convective
inhibition, through the predawn hours this morning as it tracks
along a focused surface Theta E gradient parallel to the front.

Today, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms could redevelop
over far Nrn AR associated with the aforementioned upper level
energy, proximity to remnant Theta E gradient, and diurnal heating
beneath and along a ribbon of PW`s hovering around 2.00 inches. The
main hazard with the strongest of storms would be damaging straight-
line winds. Otherwise, dry and hot conds can be expected across the
remainder of AR. Highs today should range from the lower 90s to
around 100 degrees. Factoring in the humid airmass in place, and
heat index values between 105 and 110 are expected this afternoon
across a large part of the state. Given this, a Heat Advisory is in
effect across all but NW and N-Cntrl AR through sunset this evening.

Heading into this upcoming work week, a stout upper ridge will
become re-established across the Srn CONUS. Over this period of
time, the center of high pressure will meander about the region
between features to the W and E of the ridge axis. Underneath the
ridge, highs will range from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees each
day. Rain chances will remain minimal to none with heat index values
topping out between 100-110. Heat headlines will likely be needed
across portions of the state every day this week.

As we progress through middle part of September it becomes
increasingly difficult to reach 100 degrees due to decreasing
overhead sun angle, expected increase in average precip, and
decreasing amount of daylight each day. To oppose these natural
cooling expectations one would normally expect, a strengthening
and amplifying ridge on the order of ~597-600 decameters will
develop across the region.

For those curious about where climatological average temps should
be for this time of year these readings should be Little Rock -
Low 64, High 86; Pine Bluff - Low 65, High 87; Harrison - Low 60,
High 82. In summary, average highs and lows are expected to run
10-15 degrees above average this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated
SHRA and TSRA over parts of southern Arkansas will dissipate within
an hour or two of sunset. Light and variable winds expected through
the forecast period. Hi res CAMS and short term guidance shows isolated
SHRA and TSRA are possible on Monday afternoon mainly across the
southern half of the state. At this time, confidence remains too
low to put into central or southern terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  99  75 100 /  10  10  10   0
Camden AR         73 100  73  98 /  10  20   0   0
Harrison AR       71  95  73  95 /  10  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    74 100  74  98 /  10  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  76 100  77  99 /  10  20  10   0
Monticello AR     75  99  75  98 /  10  30   0  10
Mount Ida AR      72 100  72  99 /  10  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  71  96  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
Newport AR        73  99  75  99 /  20  10  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     73  99  74  98 /  10  30  10   0
Russellville AR   74 100  74 100 /  10  20  10  10
Searcy AR         73  99  74 100 /  10  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      75 101  76 100 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-
008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...76