535
FXUS64 KLZK 131018
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
518 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

-Seasonably warm temperatures will prevail across the forecast area
 through the coming workweek, with dry and settled conditions
 prevailing over this period.

-Unsettled weather, including rain and thunderstorm chances appear
 possible across the region by late workweek into the weekend, but
 uncertainties remain between exact timing, QPF, and severe
 weather possibilities.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The main driver of weather conditions through the workweek into the
following weekend will be upper lvl features. First, for the
majority of the workweek (through Thursday), a dominant upper lvl
ridge will be fixated over Arkansas leading to a period of tranquil
and unseasonably warm weather. However, into the late workweek and
weekend, an upper lvl trof and associated cold front will approach
Arkansas which will present a significant chance for precipitation.

MONDAY (TODAY) THROUGH THURSDAY:

Surface high pressure will be settled across the Southeastern region
of the CONUS which will assist in the promotion of mostly sunny
skies across the Natural State. Additionally, this surface feature
will lead to a continued advection of southerly and southeasterly
flow into Arkansas promoting a warm and moist airmass to be ushered
into the state. Expect temperatures overall to remain unseasonably
warm for this time of the year averaging about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal overall.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

A significant pattern shift in the upper lvls is forecast to take
place by late workweek. An upper lvl trof is going to dig over the
Central Plains region of the CONUS and will drive a cold front
across Arkansas through the weekend. Latest model guidance of both
the GFS and ECMWF continue to be in cohesion in the placement of
shower and thunderstorm activity across Arkansas on Saturday into
Sunday as a cold front is expected to traverse the state from
northwest to southeast beginning Saturday with the cold front
completing the journey across the state during the day on Sunday.
However, specifics remain too far in advance to nail down with
respect to exact timing, rainfall totals, and the possibility of
severe weather.

Expect on Friday temperatures to remain unseasonably warm by 5 to 10
degrees across Arkansas with fair weather conditions ahead of the
approaching cold front as a return to predominately southerly flow
will commence advecting warm air and moisture into the state.
Saturday and Sunday will be the days in which noted temperatures
will lower due to a combination of rain-cooled air, cloud cover, and
the FROPA as a drier and cooler airmass will funnel in behind the
cold front, especially on Sunday as the cold front begins to
progress away from the state. In upcoming forecast discussions and
packages, specifics will begin to be discussed as the event draws
closer. It does heed mentioning that confidence is high that the
state will experience widespread rainfall, especially when signals
this far out from model guidance show cohesion and confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Expect VFR flight category for the entire duration of the forecast
period across all terminals from Monday morning through Tuesday
morning. No significant reductions in CIGS or VSBY are
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     86  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         86  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       83  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    88  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  85  62  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     88  59  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      88  60  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  85  61  84  58 /   0  10   0   0
Newport AR        86  61  85  58 /   0  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     86  59  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   88  63  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         86  61  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      85  60  84  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74