798
FXUS64 KLZK 281146
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
646 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Local radars have been showing an increase in shower activity over
the past several hours as an upper level impulse over the central
high plains approaches. This impulse will ride the northwest flow
and low level jet currently in place through the remainder of the
night with ongoing precipitation chances.

Guidance has not deviated much in its previous thinking that
widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread all of the
state during the day Thursday with the impulse taking on more of
an linear MCS look as it drops further south later in the day.

Guidance continues to indicate a substantial temperature gradient
developing across the CWA today with the impulse eventually
interacting with a stalled out frontal boundary located over the
ARKLATEX. All CAMS models are showing an increase in convection
and QPF as this scenario unfolds with a narrow band of rain
amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range with locally heavier amounts.

The majority of the CAMS guidance is in good agreement with the
nested NAM the definite outlier compared to the other models. HRRR
solution seems to have a good handle based on its initialization
and will be the preferred model this morning. As such, a small
flash flood watch has been issued for parts of north central
Arkansas where this aforementioned heavier band is likely to set
up.

Models are hinting at the possibility of strong surface heating
and subsequent destabilization over the southwest corner of the
CWA where highs are forecast to get into the lower to mid 80s
with the remainder of the CWA only getting into the 60s and 70s.
Some stronger storms may be able to get going during the afternoon
with some gusty winds and marginally large hail. This is definitely
not an ideal set up for severe weather but a few storms can not
be discounted either.

As the wave moves away tonight, precipitation chances will end
across the north. Most of the CAMS guidance continues to hold onto
the aforementioned linear looking MCS through early Friday
morning over the south as the low level jet kicks in again. The
entire system looks to clear the CWA by noon Friday with a some
showers still possible over the south through Saturday.

Northwest flow will continue over the CWA through the forecast
period as persistent synoptic scale troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. Guidance is showing a few weak shortwaves moving
through the base of the trough but are having some difficulty in
the finer details and will continue a mainly dry forecast at this
time.

Temperatures today and Friday will average well below average for
most of the state with the widespread cloud cover and ongoing
precip chances. Temperatures will begin to warm back up Saturday
and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

MVFR to occasionally IFR conditions are expected at all terminals
as a storm system moves across the region bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms with it. Conditions will remain down
through the period although precipitation will shut off towards
the end of the period. Winds will be light and from the east to
southeast at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  80  62  87 /  50  30  10  10
Camden AR         65  76  66  83 /  80  90  40  30
Harrison AR       60  73  59  81 /  50  30  10  10
Hot Springs AR    64  74  64  83 /  80  70  30  20
Little Rock   AR  64  75  65  84 /  80  60  20  20
Monticello AR     65  79  67  85 /  80  80  40  30
Mount Ida AR      63  74  64  82 /  90  70  30  20
Mountain Home AR  59  78  60  85 /  40  20  10  10
Newport AR        60  80  63  87 /  40  20  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     64  75  64  83 /  80  60  30  20
Russellville AR   64  75  64  85 /  80  50  20  10
Searcy AR         62  76  63  86 /  70  40  10  10
Stuttgart AR      65  76  65  84 /  70  50  20  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ004-103-112-113-203-212-
213-313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56