116
FXUS64 KLZK 281736
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Local radars have been showing an increase in shower activity over
the past several hours as an upper level impulse over the central
high plains approaches. This impulse will ride the northwest flow
and low level jet currently in place through the remainder of the
night with ongoing precipitation chances.

Guidance has not deviated much in its previous thinking that
widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread all of the
state during the day Thursday with the impulse taking on more of
an linear MCS look as it drops further south later in the day.

Guidance continues to indicate a substantial temperature gradient
developing across the CWA today with the impulse eventually
interacting with a stalled out frontal boundary located over the
ARKLATEX. All CAMS models are showing an increase in convection
and QPF as this scenario unfolds with a narrow band of rain
amounts in the 2 to 4 inch range with locally heavier amounts.

The majority of the CAMS guidance is in good agreement with the
nested NAM the definite outlier compared to the other models. HRRR
solution seems to have a good handle based on its initialization
and will be the preferred model this morning. As such, a small
flash flood watch has been issued for parts of north central
Arkansas where this aforementioned heavier band is likely to set
up.

Models are hinting at the possibility of strong surface heating
and subsequent destabilization over the southwest corner of the
CWA where highs are forecast to get into the lower to mid 80s
with the remainder of the CWA only getting into the 60s and 70s.
Some stronger storms may be able to get going during the afternoon
with some gusty winds and marginally large hail. This is definitely
not an ideal set up for severe weather but a few storms can not
be discounted either.

As the wave moves away tonight, precipitation chances will end
across the north. Most of the CAMS guidance continues to hold onto
the aforementioned linear looking MCS through early Friday
morning over the south as the low level jet kicks in again. The
entire system looks to clear the CWA by noon Friday with a some
showers still possible over the south through Saturday.

Northwest flow will continue over the CWA through the forecast
period as persistent synoptic scale troughing persists over the
eastern CONUS. Guidance is showing a few weak shortwaves moving
through the base of the trough but are having some difficulty in
the finer details and will continue a mainly dry forecast at this
time.

Temperatures today and Friday will average well below average for
most of the state with the widespread cloud cover and ongoing
precip chances. Temperatures will begin to warm back up Saturday
and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Just a few little tweaks to the timing of the precipitation
starting and stopping at the terminals otherwise that looked good.
Continuing to see a few places remain MVFR with most terminals
seeing IFR conditions. Model guidance suggests overnight into the
early morning hours some reduced visibilities will be seen during
the early morning hours. Winds will generally remain light, with
the exception being as these storms begin to push south we could
see a chance for some higher wind gusts in some of the stronger
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  59  84  62 /  70  40  20  20
Camden AR         83  65  76  66 /  80  80  80  30
Harrison AR       68  59  77  60 /  90  40  20  20
Hot Springs AR    73  64  74  65 /  90  80  60  30
Little Rock   AR  70  64  77  65 /  90  70  50  20
Monticello AR     81  65  79  66 /  80  80  80  30
Mount Ida AR      73  64  74  64 /  90  90  60  30
Mountain Home AR  71  58  82  60 /  80  20  10  10
Newport AR        73  60  85  63 /  60  30  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     75  64  77  64 /  80  80  60  30
Russellville AR   70  64  77  65 /  90  70  40  20
Searcy AR         71  61  81  63 /  90  60  30  20
Stuttgart AR      71  64  78  65 /  90  70  50  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...65