093
FXUS64 KLZK 032228
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
528 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

-Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least early
next week, with area high readings generally 5 to 8 degrees above
normal.

-More organized and widespread rain chances appear possible by mid-
week next week as a cold front approaches from the Great Plains.

-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late
 week next week in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

H500 ridging was noted acrs much of the Cntrl US w/ amplified
troughing moving acrs the Wrn US. Locally, Ern US sfc pressure
continues to drive the fcst, w/ dry and warmer than normal temps
prevailing thru at least the end of the weekend.

Thru the end of the weekend and into early next week, guidance
remains indicative of the aforementioned H500 ridge deamplifying and
shifting Swrd over the Srn Cntrl US, w/ generally zonal flow and
passing embedded shortwave trofs prevailing acrs the CONUS.

Incrsg sfc moisture is expected acrs the region by Mon, and wl aid
in incrsg rain chances thru the early half of next week ahead of an
aprchg cdfrnt. Latest guidance continues to suggest this frnt wl
move acrs the Ozark Plateau during the Tues-Wed timeframe, driving
more widespread, but low chance PoPs for much of the FA.

In the wake of the frnt, which looks to shift towards a "back-door"
frnt as sfc high pressure settles over the Great Lakes, NErly sfc
winds wl prevail, ushering in much cooler and drier air over the
Natural State thru the end of the PD, w/ settled wx condns
resuming.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals for the entire
forecast period of Friday evening through Saturday evening. High
pressure continues to keep fair and tranquil weather conditions in
the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     58  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         58  86  61  86 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       58  82  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    59  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  60  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     60  89  63  88 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      58  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  59  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        60  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     59  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   60  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         58  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      60  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74