430
FXUS64 KLZK 250555
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1155 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will move across the state today into
  Tuesday morning; heavy rainfall and severe weather is possible

- Substantial cool down and drier weather conditions are expected
  Wednesday through Friday

- Decent rain chances return to Arkansas by the upcoming weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Regional WSR-88D radars depicted a complex of showers and
thunderstorms in progress over Cntrl and NE TX, Cntrl and Ern OK, SE
KS, W and NW AR, into SW MO. At the same time, patchy fog,
potentially dense at times, is anticipated over portions of the
state ahead of the precipitation shield. Visibilities could be
reduced to one quarter of a mile or less across NE AR where a Dense
Fog Advisory is currently in effect. Predawn temps were hovering in
the lower 40s to lower 50s.

A potent upper trough and closed low will eject into the Cntrl/Nrn
Plains today. Large scale forcing for ascent will overspread the Srn
MS Valley within background SWrly flow. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to push into AR from the W today and
linger through tonight into Tuesday morning.

Hi-Res CAM guidance denotes an open warm sector attempting to lift
Nwrd into far Srn and SErn AR as a surface low over the Cntrl/Nrn
Plains deepen this afternoon and evening. SPC outlook highlights
portions of Srn and SErn AR with a slight risk of severe storms
Monday afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather will be
possible if the warm sector does in fact make it into the state.
The primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail.
Additionally, a low-end tornado risk can not be ruled out,
especially along and near the warm front where surface winds back
to the E enhancing 0-1km SRH profiles. HREF joint probabilities
of CAPE >500J/Kg, CIN >-25 J/Kg, and 0-6km bulk wind shear >30 kts
infer the open warm sector will stall between I-20 and the AR/LA
border whereas the LREF ensembles suggest AR/LA border Nwrd 1-2
rows of counties into Srn AR. The middle ground between the
HREF/LREF is nearly identical to the SPC slight risk area.

QPF deterministic forecast is settling in on widespread 1-2"
rainfall with locally higher amounts favored over W and SW AR.
Probabilistic ensemble guidance depicts 40->90% of >1" through
Tuesday, 30-70% of >2" for SW 2/3rds of the state, and a limited
area of 20-40% of >3" over the Ouachita Mtns into the Wrn portions
of the AR River Valley and now includes SW AR. Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for today and tonight highlights an area roughly bound by
the >2" total accumulation with a slight risk of flash flooding.
Comparing total expected rainfall to 1hr, 3hr, and 6hr flash flood
guidance, decided to hold off on a Flood Watch for now as FFG
guidance is expected to be greater than anticipated QPF. Some CAM
guidance is indicating a stripe of locally higher QPF (3-5") but
run to run consistency in placement varies quite a bit, therefore
confidence in any given location receiving this narrow band of
higher rainfall remains low.

A cold front will sweep across the state on Tuesday swiftly ending
precipitation from NW to SE. A secondary, more potent, cold front
will push across the state Wednesday morning. Winds on Wednesday
will be breezy, N/NW at 15-25 mph, thanks to tight PGF in place.
Strong area of high pressure will settle into the region on
Thursday beneath NW flow aloft. Temps will fall below
climatological averages Wednesday through Friday. No rainfall is
expected during this period of time. Low temps could be at or
below freezing across a good portion of the state Thursday and
Friday mornings. High temps Wednesday through Friday should range
from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Late in the period, upper level flow should briefly transition to
zonal, then become SWrly through the weekend. Potential upper level
energy traversing background SW flow in association with a cold
front should bring unsettled weather condtions back to the state
over the upcoming weekend. Inherently a lot of uncertainty remains
with the latter portion of the forecast so its always best to follow
the forecast as next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The main line of showers/storms are now exiting eastern Arkansas
early this morning, with just some isloated to scattered showers
popping up behind the main line across central to northern
Arkansas. Thus, leaving mainly VCSH in the TAF`s over the next
several hours. Otherwise, MVFR-IFR will prevail through tomorrow
morning, with periods of LIFR through the early morning hours.
Gradual ceiling and visibility improvements can be anticipated
throughout the day, with VFR conditions returning during the
afternoon hours. Winds will veer primarily out of the
northwesterly direction over the next several hours, with
occasional gustiness 15-20 kts starting tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     56  52  67  38 / 100  90  10   0
Camden AR         58  55  66  41 /  90 100   0   0
Harrison AR       58  49  61  33 /  90  60   0   0
Hot Springs AR    57  53  65  39 / 100  80   0   0
Little Rock   AR  57  54  65  41 / 100  90   0   0
Monticello AR     60  56  69  45 /  80 100   0   0
Mount Ida AR      58  51  65  38 / 100  70   0   0
Mountain Home AR  57  49  63  34 /  90  80   0   0
Newport AR        56  51  66  40 / 100  90  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     58  55  67  42 /  90 100   0   0
Russellville AR   58  52  66  38 / 100  70   0   0
Searcy AR         56  52  66  38 / 100  90   0   0
Stuttgart AR      57  54  65  41 /  90 100   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...70
AVIATION...77