812
FXUS64 KLZK 031647
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1047 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

-Frost is possible over a large part of Arkansas this morning.

-Moderating temperature trend is expected early through late
 week.

-Low end rain chances return towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Analyzing surface observations from around the state this morning
and winds were nearly calm or calm and skies were clear.
Temperatures ranged from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Given these
readings already in the lower to middle 30s, a good coverage of
frost is anticipated by daybreak. Winds will switch around to the
SW today ranging from 5-15 mph. Skies will remain clear thanks to
subsidence in place over the region. These two components will
promote temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Beyond Monday, an upper ridge will settle in across the Gulf
coastal states with H500 flow becoming zonal over a good portion
of the CONUS. At the surface, a departing high will sustain SWrly
flow over the next several days. This will allow a warming trend
with many locations climbing back into the 70s, even approaching
80 degrees in some areas.

By late week a series of upper level shortwaves should dive SEwrd
within background perturbed flow. A weak cold front is expected to
reach the state by Friday, become stationary over Srn AR, then lift
back to the N as a warm front. A few showers are possible with this
front over E and NE AR, then points NEwrd into the Great Lakes
region. Most locations around the state should remain dry.

A secondary much strong front is forecast to move across the state
Saturday night into Sunday bringing additional rain chances to
Arkansas. Much like the last system, E and NE AR have the highest
PoP chances. Even there, PoP chances are not great. Much colder
and drier air will advect into the region on Sunday as an
expansive area of high pressure moves into the Cntrl/Nrn Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR flight category is expected for the entire forecast period from
Monday mid-day through Tuesday mid-day across all TAF sites. Surface
winds will begin the forecast period established out of the
southwest to west-southwest before becoming variable into Monday
evening, then becoming re-established out of the south to south-
southwest later Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  73  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         42  73  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       46  72  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    43  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  46  72  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     45  74  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      43  74  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  44  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        44  72  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     43  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   45  76  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         43  73  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      44  72  47  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...74