765
FXUS64 KLZK 010500
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

-A Heat Advisory will be in effect today across portions of
 Arkansas where heat index values are expected to reach between
 105 and 109 degrees

-The trend of the forecast period will be a continuation of hot and
 dry conditions

-Heat Product upgrades in the form of Extreme Heat Warnings may be
 needed across portions of the state as moisture is advected into
 the state leading to an increase in the heat index into mid-week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

No major wholesale changes to the forecast as the center of an upper
lvl ridge is progged to be locked in directly over Arkansas through
mid-week. A slight deviation of this upper lvl feature is noted via
the 00Z suite of model guidance during the mid-week, to elongate and
expand the upper lvl ridge sliding slightly eastward from over the
Mid-South region of the CONUS extending to over the Southeastern
region of the CONUS. However, the proximity of this deviation will
keep the western periphery of the upper lvl ridge placed over
Arkansas and not provide temperature or precipitation relief to the
state. The slight deviation of the ridge eastward is likely due to
forecasted interaction with the tropical remnants of current invest
97L (as of 1 AM CDT early Monday morning) off the Louisiana coast
which is forecast to track northwestward between the
Houston/Galveston metro area and the Texas/Louisiana border moving
into Texas. However, the strength of this tropical system is
expected to be weak with most of the 00Z suite of model guidance
keeping the tropical system weaker than a tropical storm and the
strength of the ridge will keep this tropical feature from having
any bearing on weather conditions across Arkansas.

By the weekend, the upper lvl ridge builds back over Arkansas. The
forecast period from today (Monday) through Sunday will relate
closely to a persistence forecast with one exception. A persistence
forecast of hot and dry conditions where air temperature is nearly
identical each day across the CWA and POP chances remain constant
near zero. The one exception will be the slight increase of dewpoint
temperatures by a few degrees by mid-week through the remainder of
the forecast. The increase of the dewpoint temperature by a
minuscule amount of a few degrees will translate to a critical
increase of the heat index value. Expect heat products to become
widespread across the CWA and state of Arkansas over the duration of
the forecast period with a few locations likely to move beyond a
Heat Advisory into Extreme Heat Warning territory in locations
forecast to have heat index values peak at 110 degrees or above.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Expect VFR flight category for the entire forecast period from early
Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning across all TAF
sites. High pressure aloft will continue to keep hot and dry
conditions across the state of Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     98  75 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         99  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    99  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  96  76 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     95  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR     101  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  98  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR  100  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         96  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ007-008-016-
017-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-064-065-069-121-122-130-138-
230-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74