805
FXUS64 KMAF 241209
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
709 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 703 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms bring heavy rainfall
  and an increased risk of flash flooding over the southwest
  mountains, the Van Horn Corridor, Guadalupe Mountains, and much
  of the southeast New Mexico Plains through early Friday morning.

- Temperatures will be closer to seasonable levels through the
  remainder of the week, gradually warming again this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Keeping this morning`s discussion more brief due to active weather
over western portions of our forecast area. A series of shortwave
impulses lifting across far west Texas into southern/southeast
New Mexico has aided in the development of bands of showers and
thunderstorms from near Van Horn to the Guadalupe Mountains and
into much of the southeast New Mexico Plains early this morning. A
deeply moist airmass is in place over western portions of our CWA
with PWAT values estimated between 1.4-1.5 inches. Mesonet
observations confirm that some of these showers and storms have
been efficient rainfall producers, with rainfall rates up to
around 1"/hr. We will be watching for increased flash flood
potential along a zone from west of Valentine to Van Horn to the
Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico plains over the next
few hours where convection may continue to train with embedded
heavy rainfall rates. The moist southwesterly flow aloft will
continue through Friday morning, allowing for the development of
scattered to numerous showers and storms today into tonight,
especially across western portions of the CWA. The Flood Watch
will remain in effect for our western and northwestern zones
through early Friday morning. High temperatures will remain near
normal values with readings in the mostly in the 80s, except for
mid to upper 70s in the higher elevation areas and locations with
high rain chances. Highs may reach into the lower 90s along far
eastern and southern portions of the area today and Friday. Lows
tonight will mostly be in the 60s, except for low 70s in the
eastern Basin/Lower Trans Pecos/ along the Rio Grande with upper
50s in the higher terrain areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

No significant change to the extended forecast. See previous
discussion below.

Shower/storm activity tapers down overnight Friday as a shortwave
within the trough passes over the Rockies into the central
Plains. The shortwave dampens the ridge and flow aloft becomes
zonal by Saturday evening. Low to medium (10-50%) rain chances
shift south of the Pecos River Saturday afternoon, with the best
chances remaining in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains. Along
with decreasing rain chances, temperatures gradually increase over
the weekend. Highs Friday are forecast to reach the 80s at most
locations, then cool to the 60s and 70s overnight. Saturday`s
highs top out in the 80s within the western portions of our
region, with 90s in our eastern portions.

Upper ridging builds back over our region Sunday into Monday, ahead
of another trough progged to approach the region Monday evening.
Rain chances decrease further over the higher terrain Sunday
afternoon and highs generally reach the 90s (80s in/near the higher
terrain). With the approach of our next storm system, rain chances
increase again Monday evening into Tuesday, again raising
concerns for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Of course, details
shall be ironed out over the coming days, so stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A band of SHRA/TSRA will reduce ceilings and visibility at times
near KCNM and HOB this morning, continuing through this afternoon
and evening. Expect localized MVFR or lower conditions near any
storms that develop. PROB30 for TSRA was included at KPEQ and KINK
Thursday afternoon/evening. VFR otherwise continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  70  89  68 /  10  20  20  50
Carlsbad                 79  62  82  62 /  50  60  50  40
Dryden                   90  71  90  72 /   0  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            87  68  87  68 /  20  10  30  40
Guadalupe Pass           73  59  75  61 /  60  60  40  40
Hobbs                    80  64  81  63 /  40  50  70  50
Marfa                    79  57  80  58 /  40  30  30  60
Midland Intl Airport     88  69  86  69 /  10  20  20  50
Odessa                   87  70  85  70 /  20  20  20  40
Wink                     85  69  86  68 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...21