043
FXUS64 KMAF 141200
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
700 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 650 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms will mainly become confined to the Davis
  Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend region today. A storm or
  two could become strong to severe.

- Hot temperatures can be expected this weekend and especially
  into the early to middle part of next week. Many locations will
  reach near or above 100 degrees during this time, with a few
  locations along the Rio Grande potentially reaching up to
  108-113 degrees Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A narrow band of isolated showers and thunderstorms is developing
over the Permian Basin in association with a shortwave impulse
dropping S-SE from the South Plains. We added a small chance
(10-20%) of showers/storms over this area through the morning
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The earlier convection that made it into the northern Permian
Basin late Friday evening has diminished as of 3 AM CDT this
morning, but a remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) continues
to pivot into the northeast Basin/western Low Rolling Plains. Weak
shortwave impulses within northwesterly flow aloft along the
northeastern periphery of an upper-level ridge building from the
Baja region/northern Chihuahua Mexico and into far west Texas are
translating into western portions of our forecast area early this
morning. A few showers and thunderstorms associated with this
feature have developed across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains
and into Reeves county overnight. This activity may continue to
develop toward the Davis/Glass Mountains over the next 1-3 hours
but overall expect a diminishing trend through sunrise.

Short range model solutions remain in good agreement with expanding
the strengthening upper-level ridge eastward across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas through the weekend. Temperatures
will continue to trend hotter underneath this feature today and
Sunday, with highs reaching into the upper 90s to around 103
degrees across the much of the region, with a few locations along
the Rio Grande ranging between 105-110 degrees. These readings
will reach just shy of Heat Advisory criteria, but those planning
outdoor activities should be sure to stay hydrated and limit time
in the heat this weekend if possible. Isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms should remain confined
to the mountains as well as into the Marfa Plateau/Big Bend
region today and Sunday. A few thunderstorms could develop to our
north over the South Plains this evening and potentially approach
our northern/northeastern Permian Basin counties late in the
evening, but confidence was too low to include mentionable
thunderstorm chances over these areas tonight. Lows tonight will
continue to range in the 60s and 70s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

No significant changes were made to the extended forecast. Hot and
mostly dry conditions are expected to continue into the upcoming
week as upper-level ridging generally remains the dominant weather
feature across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The ridge axis
does attempt to break down slightly Tuesday into Tuesday night as
a shortwave trough passes across the central Plains, but the ridge
otherwise quickly becomes re-established over the region Wednesday
through Friday. Lack of deep layer moisture and increased subsidence
underneath the upper-ridge will generally preclude convective
development, although isolated thunderstorms could develop in the
vicinity of the Davis Mountains/Big Bend. The bigger story will be
the continuation of very hot temperatures over our area next
week. Afternoon highs should climb above 100 degrees over much of
our region each day Monday-Wednesday, while a few locations along
the southern Big Bend and Rio Grande could range as high as
108-113 degrees during the early to middle part of the week. Heat
Advisory products may need to be issued for portions of our area.
A slight increase in low level moisture may allow high temperatures
to trend downward a few degrees by the latter part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR is expected to remain prevalent through the forecast period.
Isolated showers/storms will develop over the Permian Basin this
morning and over the Davis Mtns/Big Bend area this afternoon/early
evening. S-SE winds will be gusty at times through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               98  74  98  74 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                103  72 102  71 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   99  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            99  72 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           96  71  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    98  69  99  68 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                    95  64  94  64 /  30  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  74  99  74 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    103  72 101  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21