651
FXUS64 KMAF 061706
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1106 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions continue over
  portions of southeast New Mexico and the high terrain of West
  Texas.

- Shower and storm chances (generally 20-50%) continue from
  Saturday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Observations this morning show the dryline has become established
from southeastern New Mexico to the Big Bend. Daytime heating will
cause the dryline to mix east into the eastern most counties of
the CWA this afternoon therefore any storms developing due to the
surface convergence will be to our east. Models show isolated
convection could develop late tonight from Big Lake to Snyder as
the dryline retreats back east though storms should be very
isolated.

An upper trough moving across the northern Plains pushes a cold
front south Saturday morning bringing in cooler temperatures.
Highs Saturday will be about 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today
with most areas holding in the 60s and a few 80s and 90s in
southern Brewster and Presidio counties. Low rain chances continue
Saturday in the eastern counties where the dryline remains ahead
of the cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The cool and near normal temperatures remain Sunday as surface
high pressure settles into North Texas. Models have long shown a
large cutoff low forming over northern Mexico and drifting
northeast across West Texas next week and this scenario is still
being shown in the models. NBM ensemble guidance has low to medium
(20-50%) PoPs for the entirety of next week though this seems over
done. Rain chances will be low through Monday before an upper
ridge ahead of the low passes east and instability increases. That
is when higher rain chances are expected as the low approaches and
moves across the CWA. There are no surface features to focus
showers so rainfall should be scattered about the area and details
on timing and location will be difficult to nail down until early
next week. Temperatures warm next week though the presence of
clouds and cooler temps aloft from the upper low should keep highs
in the 70s for most of the week. We may see another cold front
late next week as the upper low exits east.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions from beginning of the period into 05Z-10Z
Saturday. A low but non-zero chance of MVFR or lower conditions at
terminals over the eastern Permian Basin in any showers/storms
tonight, followed by VFR conditions once more thereafter into the
end of the period. Breezy, westerly 15 to 25 knot winds at
terminals decrease and shift to northwest 02Z-07Z Saturday. Winds
then shift to northeast 09Z-15Z and again become breezy 15 to 20
knots with another cold front passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon from southeastern
New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. Critical fire weather
conditions are expected this afternoon in southeastern New Mexico,
the northwestern Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos south into the
Davis Mountains. Very windy conditions are expected in the
mountains with windy conditions spreading east in to the adjacent
plains. Minimum relative humidities will easily drop below 15
percent leading to critical atmospheric fire weather conditions.
ERC values have been creeping up and fuels are getting more
favorable for burning. A cold front moves Saturday dropping
temperatures and easing fire weather conditions the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               45  61  42  67 /  20  30  20  30
Carlsbad                 42  66  40  66 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   55  76  51  67 /  10  20  40  40
Fort Stockton            49  68  46  64 /  10  10  40  40
Guadalupe Pass           44  58  42  61 /   0   0  20  10
Hobbs                    40  64  37  68 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    37  68  37  65 /   0   0  30  30
Midland Intl Airport     47  63  44  67 /  20  10  20  30
Odessa                   47  64  44  66 /  20  10  20  30
Wink                     44  66  43  66 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
     Andrews-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94