687
FXUS64 KMAF 101828
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
128 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- An approaching system brings increasing rain and storm chances
  through early this evening. A few storms may become severe over
  eastern portions of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos this
  afternoon and early evening. Large hail and damaging winds will
  be the primary severe hazards.

- Strong westerly winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains, the
  Van Horn Corridor, the Upper Trans Pecos, Davis Mountains, Marfa
  Plateau, and Big Bend region this afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the next several
  days, though a cold front will bring slightly cooler
  temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough straddling the
Sonora/Chihuahua border, about to open a can of something over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Area radars already show the
initial line of convection has developed along the leading edge of
the trough invof El Paso.  Closer to home, a dryline is sharpening
up from the Western Low Rolling Plains to the lower Trans Pecos,
where the HRRR develops a secondary line of convection by 19Z. CAMs
depict vertical shear of 50-70 kts rounding the base of the trough,
but quite unidirectional on forecast soundings.  With mid-level
lapse rates in excess of 7 C/km, and dry subcloud layers, the main
threats this afternoon/evening look to be large hail and damaging
winds.  This activity should taper off in the lower Trans Pecos by
mid-evening.  Latest CAMs also suggest high winds out west will
diminish early by 03Z or so, but we`ll let the next shift make that
call, since they`ll likely be mopping up by then anyway.  West winds
will remain elevated overnight, and mixing will combine with
residual cloud cover to keep overnight minimums an average of around
10 F above climatology.

Wednesday, a strong cold front arrives  behind the exiting trough,
scouring boundary layer moisture out of the area and bringing and
end to warmer temperatures.  CAA will keep highs Wednesday afternoon
in the 70s most locations...a few degrees above normal.

Wednesday night, winds go light/variable as gradients relax under
mostly clear skies, and efficient radiational cooling will allow
overnight lows to cool to right around normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Near-normal temperatures stick around Thursday behind Wednesday`s
front. Highs end up similar to Wednesday`s, with most locations
topping out in the 70s (80s along the Rio Grande). Nevertheless,
return flow starts to redevelop Thursday, and by Friday winds become
southwesterly to westerly. These downsloping winds help us warm back
up into the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s Friday and Saturday as our
area stays under dry westerly to northwesterly flow aloft. By
Sunday, a shortwave moving across the Plains sends another front
down into the region. Uncertainty still remains as to Sunday`s high
temperatures, and will depend mainly on what time of day the front
moves across the area. In any case, near-to-below normal
temperatures can be expected early next week. Drier air and a lack
of appreciable sources of lift keeps rain chances out of west Texas
and southeast New Mexico through the extended.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Gusty southwest winds are expected this afternoon, with patchy
BLDU possible. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field
along/east of a dryline, w/bases ~ 4.5-7 kft AGL. Convective
chances look best east of the terminals. Winds will veer to west
overnight and remain elevated ahead of a cold front, which should
fropa KHOB around 13Z, and clear KFST around 17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A dryline is developing this afternoon and has gradually mixed
eastward throughout the day. Across the area, min RHs are expected
to remain above 15%. However, gusty winds lead to elevated fire
weather concerns today, particularly for western portions of the
area. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for Southeast
New Mexico, western portions of the Permian Basin and Trans-
Pecos, and the Big Bend this afternoon and evening. An additional
concern today for these locations is the potential for dry
lightning strikes associated with any isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm that develops this afternoon. Winds become lighter
tonight, but a cold front tomorrow once again yields breezy
conditions. Though min RHs are once again expected to remain above
critical thresholds and temperatures stay near normal, these
gusty winds once again lead to enhanced fire weather concerns, and
another RFD may be necessary Wednesday. Winds once again become
lighter by Thursday morning, which will help decrease fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               49  72  38  72 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 52  76  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   54  84  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            53  78  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           46  68  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    46  71  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    38  72  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     51  72  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   51  72  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     50  75  40  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for Central Brewster-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Eddy County Plains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99