Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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876 FXUS64 KMAF 080713 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 213 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Today will look remarkably similar to the last few days, with highs once again reaching into the middle 90s to lower 100s across the region. Locations will generally be a degree or two warmer today than yesterday, in spite of the mid-level ridge translating eastward toward the Gulf Coast. If you want to get away from the heat, even the mountains won`t provide much respite, and with highs in the 95-97 degree range in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains today, a Heat Advisory has been issued for these areas. Elsewhere, locations remain below criteria, but Heat Advisories aside, it`s going to be HOT, so anyone who has outdoor plans today or who works outdoors will need to keep heat safety in mind, stay hydrated, and stay cool as much as possible. Similar to previous days, diurnally-driven sub- severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas, with ample moisture maintained by persistent southeasterly surface flow. The difference today is that given the aforementioned ridge`s eastward displacement, storms are likely to move off the mountains toward the Pecos River, giving more people a chance to see rain. Despite this, forecast rainfall amounts remain very low, with lightning and gusty winds a bigger concern for potential fire starts given dry fuels to the west. Storms that develop today will linger into this evening, gradually diminishing after sunset. Continued return flow enhanced by the nocturnal low-level jet keeps lows on the mild side tonight, in the 60s in the mountains and lower to middle 70s across the plains. Heading into Sunday, the heat continues with widespread 90s and lower 100s, though it`ll be around 1 to 3 degrees cooler for most as thicknesses decrease slightly. The pattern begins to shift, becoming a bit more unsettled with a southern stream trough to the west of the area, and a cold front extending from a broader trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast that will sag southward toward the region by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorm chances increase across Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin Sunday afternoon, along with the seemingly ever-present diurnal storms over the higher terrain to the west. A few storms across northern areas may become strong in spite of weak ascent, given steep low level lapse rates. The strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty downburst winds, which will be the main concern Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. JP && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Increased rain chances and cooler temperatures are forecast with a cold front moving through Sunday night and clearing the area along or northeast of the Pecos River Monday, especially north of I-10. Rainfall amounts in any showers and storms will be low, a few tenths of an inch at most, but coverage will be slightly more than past days where rainfall has been confined to west of the Pecos River and driven not by synoptic forcing but instead heating of elevated terrain. Upper ridging quickly builds back in behind the dissipating cold front Tuesday and persists into next weekend. Rain chances also return to a diurnally driven setup from heating of elevated terrain and closer proximity to the dryline over westernmost regions. Overall, a typical summertime atmospheric pattern can be expected. Lows Sunday night remain a few degrees above average and mostly in the 60s, 70s across the southern Permian Basin, along the Permian Basin, and near the Rio Grande. Highs Monday will be below average northeast of the Pecos River and a few degrees above average southwest of the Pecos River, with highs in the 80s over northernmost Lea County, Permian Basin, and higher elevations, triple digits confined to the Rio Grande, and 90s everywhere else. Monday night will be similar to Sunday night but slightly cooler, with lows falling into the 60s over more of the Permian Basin and along the Pecos River Valley. On Tuesday, highs in triple digits make a reappearance along the Pecos River, as well as over the Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau, with 105+ degree readings along the Rio Grande and 90s elsewhere, overall 5 to 15 degrees above average for mid June. Lows Tuesday night likewise feature mainly 70s, 60s over higher elevations and northern parts of the SE NM plains and the Permian Basin. Highs Wednesday feature more widespread triple digits readings along the Pecos River than Tuesday, and 105+ degree readings appearing over the Reeves County Plains. Lows Tuesday night similar to Monday night but warmer can be expected. Highs Wednesday through Saturday will be 10 to 15 degrees above average and in the triple digits for most regions aside from higher elevations, with 105+ readings along the Pecos River and along the Rio Grande. Lows will also remain above average and outside of northernmost areas and higher elevations struggle to fall below the 70s each night from mid week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Winds will generally remain elevated and intermittently gusty out of the southeast, with the exception of CNM where a brief southwesterly wind shift is possible close to 09/00Z. Thunderstorms are expected once again during the afternoon and evening, however low probability and low confidence in timing and location preclude TS mention in TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 102 76 101 69 / 0 0 10 40 Carlsbad 104 72 99 68 / 10 20 20 40 Dryden 101 76 102 75 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 102 75 104 71 / 20 20 10 20 Guadalupe Pass 96 71 92 65 / 20 20 10 30 Hobbs 101 70 99 65 / 10 10 20 50 Marfa 96 63 96 60 / 30 30 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 101 76 101 70 / 0 0 10 30 Odessa 101 76 101 70 / 0 0 10 30 Wink 105 74 104 72 / 10 10 10 30 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...84