453
FXUS64 KMAF 272330
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- Seasonable temperatures and shower/storm chances expected into next
  week. Main threats with storms will be gusty winds, heavy rain,
  and small hail.

- Medium to high probability of rainfall amounts at least 0.25" to
  0.50" over much of the area by end of next week. Localized flash
  flood threat continues, particularly west of the Pecos River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Little has changed in the short term forecast period. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecasted to continue each afternoon into the
evening hours across the western zones of the forecast area. This is
due to a similar synoptic pattern from previous days as an upper-
level ridge sits over the eastern half of the US, while shortwave
impulses from a weak upper-level ridge across the Southern Plains.
These impulses coinciding with southerly to southeasterly surface
winds will supply moisture and lift for rain/storm development
mainly confined near the higher terrain. Precipitable Water (PWAT)
values continue to reach near the climatological daily maximum
indicating heavy rainfall is going to be prevalent. Guidance also
has slow storm motions with these showers and storms for certain
locations near the higher terrain. Upscale thunderstorm growth has
been prevalent in this weather pattern which is expected to persist
through the period. Given these factors along with the ground being
saturated, especially across the western half of the forecast area,
a Flood Watch has been extended through Saturday night for these
areas. Forecast soundings depict `inverted-V` profiles signaling a
damaging wind threat with the strongest storms. This is all to say
that most storms are anticipated to remain below severe limits given
the lack of wind shear. High temperatures tomorrow are forecasted to
linger in the upper 80s to upper 90s areawide placing them near
normal to slightly above normal for this time of year. Saturday
night lows are also anticipated to remain near to slightly above
normal (mid 60s to mid 70s) for this time of year regionwide.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Sunday and into Monday, warmer than normal temperatures take hold
with most reaching into the mid to upper 90s over the Permian Basin
and areas to the south. Cooler temperatures in the 80s to low 90s
hang on across the higher terrain and southeast New Mexico. With
weak ridging east of the area and broad troughing just to the west,
low to medium(20-40%) rain chances hang on across the CWA each day.
Activity looks to peak each afternoon/evening with any activity
remaining isolated to scattered in nature much like it has been for
the last few days. Rain amounts will be hard to pin down for any
location over the next several days given the isolated to scattered
nature of the storms. However, areas such as the Davis Mountains and
portions of southeast New Mexico should watch for localized flash
flooding as some areas have received a few to several inches of rain
over the last week. Afternoon highs trend to near normal from
Tuesday onward with lows staying near or just above normal in the
low to mid 70s. Overall, a mostly seasonable summer(with rain!)
forecast remains on track through the extended.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Scattered -SHRA/TS continues west of MAF this evening. It should
not impact aviation much and will be mostly dissipated by 02-04Z.
Otherwise VFR conditions and modest southeasterly winds are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  97  74  98 /  10  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 70  92  70  96 /  30  20  10  10
Dryden                   75  97  74  98 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            72  93  73  95 /  20  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           65  84  67  88 /  40  30  10  20
Hobbs                    69  91  70  94 /  40  20   0   0
Marfa                    65  84  65  86 /  40  70  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   73  94  73  96 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                     73  94  72  96 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Chinati Mountains-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...10