660
FXUS64 KMAF 180945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- An upper-level storm system brings increasing rain chances and
  much cooler temperatures by the middle of the week.

- A few storms could be severe Wednesday night, from the Western
  Low Rolling Plains to the lower Trans Pecos. Large hail will be
  the main threat.

- High winds will be possible in the Guadalupe and Delaware
  Mountains Thursday night and Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The mid to upper level flow pattern will continue to transition more
southwesterly on Tuesday ahead of a low pressure system that will
continue to deepen over southern California. Surface troughing will
extend southward across much of west Texas again Tuesday afternoon,
allowing for another day of much above normal temperatures in the
mid 70s to mid 80s across most of the region. Southwesterly flow
aloft will persist Tuesday night into Wednesday in advance of the
deep low pressure system that remains in place over the vicinity of
southern California. Low level flow is forecast to back more
southerly across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region
Tuesday night, which will allow low level moisture to advect
westward into these areas with associated surface dewpoints rising
back into the 50s to near 60 F. The combination of the low level
moisture and weak ascent associated with shortwave impulses
advancing over the region within the southwesterly flow aloft will
bring a chance (20-50%) of rain showers back into the forecast over
the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday, with the best
chances highlighted east of a Snyder, Big Spring, Sheffield line.
Lows Tuesday night will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s over most
of the area, except slightly warmer in the upper 50s to lower 60s
over the Permian Basin/Lower Trans Pecos where moisture values will
be higher. Highs Wednesday should only range in the 70s with the
increased cloud cover across the region, as well as with the
increased rain chances over our eastern zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Wednesday night, the party will be in full swing, with the upper
trough tilting negatively over SoCal/Baja.  Convection is expected
to be ongoing across all but the southwest zones, but thunder will
initially be confined to the southeast.  As the night progresses,
height falls and upper-level diffluence will increase as the trough
swings east, and thunder will develop west, especially after 06Z.
Deep-layer shear of 50-60 kts rounding the base of the trough will
develop, coincident with mid-lvl lapse rates of 7-8 C/km for a
severe hail threat.  NAM PWATs at KMAF are forecast to increase to
the 100th percentile (~ 1.12") during the evening, approaching 3 std
devs above normal, so with a little luck, we might see some rain out
of this event.

Thursday, the trough goes more negative, tilting up through the Four
Corners by 00Z Friday.  Convective chances looks excellent across
the CWA, especially east and north.  The NAM develops a mtn wave
signature over the Guadalupes late in the afternoon, suggesting high
winds that could continue through Friday morning.  An advisory or
two may be needed, as well.  Cloud cover, rain, and decreasing
thicknesses will continue the downward trend in temperatures, and
highs Thursday afternoon will average only 4-6 F above climatology.

Thursday night, as the trough passes north of the region, a scouring
west wind will shunt convection east of the area by 06Z.  Cooler air
behind a Pac front will shave a couple of degrees off highs Friday
afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary trough will be digging down the west coast,
arriving over northern Baja Sunday morning and putting West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico back under southwest flow aloft.  This
could open up another window for convection beginning as early as
Sunday, but it looks like only -SHRA that far out (which will likely
change as the week progresses).  Monday will close out the extended
cool...only ~ 2-3 F above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 345 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, although mid/high cloud
will increase after sundown. Winds will remain light and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  58  77  60 /   0  20  40  70
Carlsbad                 78  53  75  52 /   0  10  10  40
Dryden                   83  61  79  61 /   0  10  30  60
Fort Stockton            81  56  77  60 /   0  10  20  40
Guadalupe Pass           68  52  64  48 /   0  10  10  30
Hobbs                    77  52  74  52 /   0  10  20  50
Marfa                    76  44  72  47 /   0   0  10  30
Midland Intl Airport     80  58  76  60 /   0  10  30  60
Odessa                   79  59  75  60 /   0  10  30  60
Wink                     79  55  76  57 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99