991
FXUS64 KMAF 142344
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
544 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions persist this
  upcoming work week.

- Windy conditions developing across the high terrain of West
  Texas and southeast New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Current radar and satellite imagery shows storms across central
Texas with lingering light rain showers across the Stockton Plateau.
Rain is expected to move out of the region by 3 PM CST as the
Pacific front progresses further east. Winds behind the front will
create breezy westerly/northwesterly winds and drier conditions
across the region this afternoon and early evening. Sustained
winds over the plains are forecast to span from 20-25 mph with
occasional wind gusts up to 30-35 mph. Stronger winds will occur
in the higher terrain, though winds do not look to reach hazardous
criteria consistently throughout the afternoon. Weak cold air
advection behind the front induces afternoon highs in the upper
50s to low 70s regionwide. A cooler night is in store with lows in
the mid 30s to mid 40s for most locations. This drops
temperatures by 10 degrees or more compared to last night.

A beautiful weather day is in store tomorrow as a surface high
pressure system builds into the region. Light northerly winds and
clear skies send afternoon highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s for
most. By Sunday evening and night, the high pressure slides to the
east while surface lee troughing sets up. This will veer winds
back from the south, bringing much warmer weather heading into
early next week.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Upper-level ridging moves overhead on Monday promoting above normal
temperatures and dry conditions across the region. Both Monday and
Tuesday high temperatures are forecast in the mid 70s to upper 80s
regionwide with Tuesday being the warmest day of the two. Breezy
winds are also forecast Monday afternoon due to surface lee
troughing from the west and surface high pressure prevalent east of
the region, creating tight pressure gradients. Winds increase on
Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to an upper-level trough flattening the
upper ridge. Long-range guidance has a mountain wave signature
developing on Tuesday lasting through Wednesday. This signature
typically indicates hazardous winds, especially over the Guadalupe
Mountains. Breezy to strong winds are forecast elsewhere. These
strong winds and dry conditions will increase fire weather concerns
especially for areas across southeast New Mexico and higher terrain
where little to no rain fell across these areas Friday night into
Saturday morning. By Thursday and Friday, winds decrease as the
upper-level jet maximum associated with the upper-level trough moves
off to the east. A couple of weak fronts move through the region
which will slightly cool temperatures to the 60s and 70s for most
areas. Cluster analysis depicts another upper-level storm system
over the western half of the US during this time. Solutions are
split on the positioning and magnitude of this system. As a
result, low (< 10%) rain chances remain for next weekend.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A deck of
scattered to broken mid level cloud decks over the region early
this evening will gradually clear out after 02-03Z. Breezy
northwesterly to northerly winds between 15-20 knots with gusts
over 25 knots will gradually decrease to around 10 knots or less
over most terminals by 02-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               43  69  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 41  70  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   49  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            45  71  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           41  62  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    38  69  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    33  68  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     43  69  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   43  69  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     41  70  40  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...21