005
FXUS64 KMAF 102254
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Warmer than average temperatures persist today before cooler
  conditions set in early next week.

- Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week,
  especially south of the I-20 Corridor. The potential for
  multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Weak upper ridging currently spans much of the southwestern US,
keeping hot and mostly dry conditions within our region.
Temperatures this afternoon are still on track to reach the upper
90s to triple digits (especially near/along the river valleys).
Tonight and into Saturday, the ridge continues to weaken and begins
to shift northeastward, toward the central Plains. As a result,
temperatures begin a cooling trend by the weekend. Lows Friday night
fall to the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs Saturday top out mainly
in the 90s. Aside from cooler temperatures, this pattern shift
also promotes increasing rain chances. Most look to stay dry this
afternoon and evening, but breezy south/southeast winds bring low
(<20%) rain chances to the higher terrain and portions of SE NM.
The best odds for isolated showers/storms will be near the Davis
and Guadalupe Mountains. Saturday, rain chances tick upward as a
weak frontal boundary approaches from the north and a disturbance
from the Gulf drifts eastward. During the afternoon and evening,
low (10- 30%) rain chances overlay portions of SE NM, the higher
terrain, the Big Bend, and portions of the Lower Trans Pecos. A
cooler and wetter trend continues into the Long Term. Details
below!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The current forecast remains on track, with warm and predominantly
dry conditions early this weekend giving way to a more active and
cooler period through the beginning of next week. The upper ridge
currently centered to the west will continue to weaken its effects
over the area Saturday as it build into the northern Plains. This
transition will allow upper-level disturbances to move over the
forecast area, leading to increased chances for rain and
thunderstorms by Sunday. A weak front will drop into the region
early next week, serving as a focus for additional lift and
thunderstorm development through Wednesday. Moist, easterly upslope
flow will persist at the surface during this time.

Due to increased moisture and the potential for multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, there is a risk of flooding across
portions of the region early next week. Additionally, while cooler
temperatures are expected, multiple rounds of thunderstorms may
impact outdoor activities. Expect a cooling trend starting Sunday,
with afternoon highs moderating into the 80s and low-90s Tuesday

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow.
Convective chances will be nil, but forecast soundings develop a
cu field late morning/early Saturday afternoon everywhere but KCNM,
w/bases ~ 4.5-5 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  96  73  95 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 72  98  72  94 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                   73  96  72  94 /   0  10  20  30
Fort Stockton            70  95  71  92 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           68  90  67  86 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    69  95  69  92 /  10   0  10  20
Marfa                    61  93  61  87 /   0  10  10  80
Midland Intl Airport     72  94  73  93 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                   72  94  73  92 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                     72  97  73  94 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...99