657
FXUS64 KMAF 081847
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
147 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through late this week with near record
  heat possible Friday and Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over
  the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances
  increase over portions of southeast New Mexico and the Permian
  Basin Thursday and again late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The broad upper-level ridge will continue to extend across the
southern U.S. through Wednesday night. Weak upslope flow and a
slight enhancement of deep-layer moisture will aid in the
development of isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau,
and parts of the Big Bend this afternoon into early this evening. A
couple of cells that develop may become capable of producing heavy
rainfall and brief strong downburst winds given precipitable water
values up to 1.3 inches and DCAPE values over 1000 J/KG. Isolated
shower and storm activity should diminish after sunset. Lows tonight
will range from the 60s in the higher terrain to the lower to mid
70s over the remainder of the region. Yet another day of above
normal temperatures can be expected under the persistent ridge on
Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures will range in the mid 90s to
around 102 degrees across the majority of the forecast area, except
in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the mountains/higher terrain.
Moisture and upslope flow will be sufficient for the development of
isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms over
the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and parts of the Big
Bend again Wednesday. Additional convection developing along a weak
boundary over east-central New Mexico and the Texas panhandle and
South Plains may approach northern portions of Eddy/Lea Counties
late Wednesday evening, so will keep POPs around 20% for those
locations. Dry weather conditions will otherwise persist across the
remainder of our forecast area through Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

No significant changes to the extended forecast. The upper-level
ridge retrogrades westward over the Desert Southwest late this week,
but our forecast area will still remain under the eastern influence
of this feature. Weak shortwave impulses embedded along the eastern
periphery of the ridge may pivot over southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin Thursday afternoon and evening, while a weak surface
boundary also sags toward northern portions of our area. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms (10-40%) may subsequently
develop over these locations late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening, with the best chances favored from Lea County into the
northern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling Plains. Other
isolated to scattered (20-50%) showers and storms will also develop
over the higher terrain areas of the western CWA Thursday
afternoon/evening. Upper-level ridging will tend to build back over
west Texas and southeast New Mexico Friday through the weekend,
before shifting eastward toward the Gulf Coast states Monday.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the
higher terrain each day. There may also be low chances for
convection over southeast New Mexico and portions of the Permian
Basin this weekend into early next week, though coverage will be
dependent on the strength and placement of the ridge. The best
chances should remain confined to our western CWA through the
extended period. Temperatures remain above normal each day with
highs mostly in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees. Friday and
Saturday appear to be the hottest days of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions outside of a very low chance (less than 10%) of
storms at terminals. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 15 to
25 mph at times this afternoon through early tonight, before
decreasing again by Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75 100  74  98 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 74 100  73  98 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   75 100  75 100 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            73  98  73  97 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           70  90  69  89 /   0  10  10  30
Hobbs                    72  97  71  96 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    64  90  63  89 /  20  20  10  40
Midland Intl Airport     75  98  75  97 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   76  98  75  97 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     75  99  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...94