093
FXUS64 KMAF 092240
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through next week.
  Temperatures will gradually increase through Tuesday, then
  decrease slightly through next Friday.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend, before rain
  chances (10-40%) begin to increase early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Mostly clear skies and dry/subsident conditions will largely
continue through Saturday night as ridging aloft gradually builds
over west Texas and southeast New Mexico. The exception could be a
couple of very isolated showers in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains or Big Bend this afternoon (though probabilities are too
low to mention in the forecast). Lows tonight will mostly range in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will reach into the mid
80s to around 90 degrees for most locations, except around 80
degrees in the mountains and in the lower to mid 90s along the Rio
Grande. Lows Saturday night may trend a few degrees warmer, but
still generally range in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Above normal highs continue into the Long Term period as upper-level
ridging builds overhead and moves eastward. Afternoon highs in the
90s can be expected for most early next week, with cooler
temperatures in the 80s across portions of the higher terrain and
southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, overnight lows in the 60s to low
70s are forecast through Tuesday night. By early Tuesday next week,
model guidance shows a change in the weather pattern as an upper-
level trough approaches our region from the west. Remnant moisture
from what is now Hurricane Simon gets pulled into the aforementioned
system early next week. This yields low (10-30%) rain chances across
portions of our westernmost zones and southeast New Mexico Monday
night. Increasing moisture and lift from the trough bring higher
rain chances (20-50%) Tuesday through Friday next week. At this
time, the best rain chances look to be Thursday and Friday as a cold
front pushes through, providing additional lift. Another hazard we
may need to monitor for is the possibility of high winds in the
Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. Though this will depend on the track
of the system mid-to-late next week. Naturally, we will continue to
monitor trends and adjust the forecast as needed. Otherwise,
ensemble guidance indicates a cooling trend during the latter half
of next week due to lower heights associated with the trough/cold
front.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR prevails through the period. South winds will become gusty at
KMAF by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 58  88  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  90  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  89  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           59  79  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  84  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    51  80  57  85 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     61  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   62  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     62  90  66  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29