103
FXUS64 KMAF 041126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
  area through Saturday. Localized heavy rain could produce flash
  flooding.

- Warmer temperatures and drier weather conditions return late
  this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Current radar is quiet in the local area with some isolated
storms in far West Texas moving towards our CWA. Models show
these storms may briefly reach southeastern New Mexico before
dissipating. More storms are expected to develop this afternoon in
the higher elevations, then moving east into the adjacent lower
elevations. The best rain chances will be west of the Pecos River
but a few storms will reach locations farther east. An upper
disturbance moves out of Mexico and across West Texas tomorrow
spreading good rain chances (40-60%) into the Permian Basin and
lower Trans Pecos. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 80s as
climatologically low heights aloft provide little subsidence.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

An upper level low develops over northern Mexico Friday and moves
northeast into West Texas Saturday. Lift ahead of the low and
abundant low level moisture brings our last good rain chances for
the week. NBM has PoPs at 30-60% primarily focused in the eastern
Permian Basin where moisture will be deepest.

After the departure of the low pressure system, a ridge builds
over Texas ending rain chances and bringing temperatures back up
to near to above normal. Highs next week will generally be in the
90s with a few 100s in the Rio Grande and Pecos River valleys.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Current radar shows TS affecting CNM and moving towards HOB from
the north. This activity is along outflow boundaries moving into
the area. These boundaries could bring TS to other TAF sites but
confidence is lower and not included in the TAFs. Otherwise, MVFR
CIGs have developed and affecting HOB/MAF. Upper clouds are making
these CIGs hard to detect but these conditions should be expected
for at least the next couple of hours before VFR conditions
return.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  68  84  65 /  20  30  30  70
Carlsbad                 88  65  87  63 /  20  10  20  20
Dryden                   89  68  84  67 /  20  40  50  50
Fort Stockton            88  66  85  63 /  40  10  50  40
Guadalupe Pass           80  63  78  62 /  20  20  30  30
Hobbs                    86  63  84  61 /  20  20  20  40
Marfa                    82  54  78  53 /  50  50  40  30
Midland Intl Airport     86  67  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
Odessa                   86  66  83  64 /  20  20  20  60
Wink                     88  66  86  64 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10