430
FXUS64 KMAF 300756
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
256 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Generally hot and dry conditions are expected through Monday
  with only a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

- Cooler and wetter weather returns Tuesday and remains through
  the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Generally hot and dry conditions are expected this weekend.
Westerly mid and upper level flow today will push a dryline into
the Permian Basin helping to push temperatures into the 90s. Hot
but not terribly so for this time of year. A mid level cap will
suppress most convection though an isolated storm or two is
possible east of the dryline, especially in the lower Trans Pecos.
Flow backs from a more southwesterly direction Sunday pulling the
dryline back farther west. An upper disturbance moving across the
region will cause storms to develop along the dryline in the Big
Bend extending north to the Pecos River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Heat and dry conditions continue into Monday before cooler and
wetter conditions return. A ridge amplifies over East Texas,
backing flow from a more southerly position, and sending a series
of disturbances over the CWA from Mexico. In addition, a trough
over the West Coast slowly moves east and further destabilizes the
atmosphere over the area. Model agreement remains poor so details
are difficult to forecast at this time though there is agreement
of good rain chances with the best chance being Wednesday and
Thursday. Lower heights and abundant clouds should keep highs in
the 80s and limit instability needed for severe thunderstorms so
the greatest severe weather threat may be localized flash
flooding. Despite good rainfall recently, the soils can likely
hold a bit more water so the greatest flood threat will be in
urban areas. Rain chances diminish late next week but do not
disappear completely.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. ISOLD TS developing
18-03Z will not impact any terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  68  98  69 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 95  61 100  66 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   96  70  97  71 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            96  66  98  68 /  10  10  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           83  62  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    93  61  97  64 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    90  56  92  56 /   0   0  50  10
Midland Intl Airport     94  67  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   94  67  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     95  66  99  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10