879
FXUS64 KMAF 052241
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

- Temperatures remain above normal, but very gradually decrease
  this weekend and into next week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40% chance) showers/storms are
  possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge extending from
Chihuahua northeast into the Central Plains/Upper Midwest.  To the
southeast, an upper trough extends from Brownsville northeast
through the Louisiana coast, and this is locally suppressing
thicknesses over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, rendering
slightly cooler temperatures than the past few days.  This
afternoon`s highs should come in a mere 10-12 F above climatology.
The KMAF 12Z RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 1.62", which is in the
neighborhood of the 97th percentile.  Upslope flow this afternoon
and low convective temperatures suggest things could get a bit spicy
west of the Pecos, and CAMs suggest this, as well.

This activity is forecast to continue into the evening hours, only
isolated and confined mainly to Southeast New Mexico.  Although the
LLJ is forecast to be rather tepid overnight, plenty of debris cloud
will be in place to retard radiational cooling, keeping overnight
minimums around 10 F above normal.

Sunday, the ridge recenters over the Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma as the
Gulf Coast trough develops WSW decreasing thicknesses even further.
For those who prefer cooler weather, this should shave a degree or
two off of this afternoon`s highs, confining triple-digit highs to
the Rio Grande Valley and isolated areas of the upper Colorado River
Valley.  Isolated afternoon convection is possible, but this will be
confined to the higher terrain/Big Bend Area, and looks much less
extensive than this afternoon.

Sunday night, the LLJ strengthens a bit, but cloud cover should be a
little less extensive, yielding overnight lows similar to what`s
expected tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Not much has changed in the Long Term with this forecast update. An
upper-level trough moving across the northern CONUS will help push
the ridge farther to the east early in the week before it migrates
westward again during the latter half of the week. Our area stays
mainly on the periphery of the ridge. As a result, temperatures
remain above normal through next week, but are still expected to be
relatively cooler than what we have seen the past few days. Highs
largely top out in the mid-to-upper 90s, with upper 80s and low 90s
in the higher terrain. Low rain chances (10-30%) will mainly be
found in/near the higher terrain south and west of the Pecos
throughout the week. Going into next weekend, the forecast remains a
bit nebulous. The Euro has been fairly consistent in keeping the
ridge nearby during this timeframe (and therefore keeping
temperatures warmer), whereas the GFS has shown a bit more variation
from run to run, with most recent solutions depicting a trough
attempting to push the ridge farther east. In any case, it looks
like unseasonably warm conditions will prevail this week, and rain
chances will largely be limited outside of the higher terrain.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow,
w/a few high clouds. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
fields late Sunday morning, w/bases ~ 4.5-5 kft AGL. Convection
is possible, but chances are too low for a mention any terminal attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 73  97  72  97 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            72  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  88  68  88 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    70  95  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    60  88  60  87 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     73  96  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  96  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     73  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99