896
FXUS64 KMAF 130523
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1223 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Hot temperatures persist through at least early next week, with
  this weekend seeing the peak of the heat. Be sure to stay
  hydrated and take frequent breaks if outdoors!

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over
  the higher terrain each day through the period. Storm chances
  increase over portions of southeast New Mexico next week

- A cooling trend begins as we head into a new work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

As of 230PM today, we have broken the daily record high of 101F
at MAF (set in 1930)! The thermometer at KMAF currently sits at
102F! This heat comes as the result of an upper level ridge
spanning overhead and across the southwestern CONUS. The center of
the ridge lies just west of our region this afternoon. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect for the northeastern Permian Basin
through early this evening, where highs are forecast to reach up
to 107F. Areas near and along the river valleys are forecast to
reach between 105-110F this afternoon. However, some relief from
the heat may be offered in the form of isolated showers/storms. A
surface trough near the TX/NM border extends southward, and will
serve as a focus for storm development through early this evening.
Rain chances are low (10-20%) over Lea County and the
northwestern/central Permian Basin. A few showers and storms have
also already developed in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains and
the Marfa Plateau, driven by upslope flow and daytime heating.
Should any storms become strong, the primary threats would be
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall looks to come to
an end later this evening, then overnight lows cool to the 60s in
the higher terrain, and 70s everywhere else. A low-level jet will
keep southeasterly winds breezy tonight.

Sunday, the center of the ridge begins to shift east/northeast,
developing near north Texas and Oklahoma by the afternoon. Given the
shift of the ridge core, highs will be a few degrees cooler Sunday
compared to today. Triple digit heat is again expected over the
northeastern Permian Basin, and near/along the river valleys.
Although, Heat Advisory criteria looks to be avoided. Highs in the
90s are forecast for the rest of the region. Isolated showers/storms
are again forecast over the higher terrain and portions of SE NM
Sunday afternoon and early evening. Lows Sunday night will be
similar to Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Upper level ridging continues to shift eastward through early next
week, engulfing much of the eastern CONUS by Tuesday. Although our
region will lie below the western edge of the ridge, decreasing
heights coupled with southeasterly flow promotes a cooling trend.
Highs in the 90s shall be prevalent Monday and Tuesday, though areas
near/along the river valleys and portions of the northeastern
Permian Basin are progged to reach the low the low 100s. Wednesday
onward, triple digit heat becomes restricted to areas along the Rio
Grande valley. By late week, afternoon temperatures look to mainly
range in the low-to-mid 90s, with 80s in the higher terrain and much
of southeast New Mexico. Along with the cooling trend, rain chances
also see an uptick as disturbances ride along the edge of the ridge.
Rain chances will tend to favor the western portions of our region
most afternoons, especially in the vicinity of the higher terrain. A
few long-range models show a cold front pushing in next weekend,
bringing cooler temperatures and better rain chances. We will see
how this evolves as we head through the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours. Breezy
southeasterly winds are expected to continue throughout this TAF
period, with gusts between 20-25 kts. Convection is possible Sunday
afternoon/evening across portions of far west Texas and southeast
New Mexico. However, opted to exclude any mention of TSRA due to low
confidence in terminal impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              101  75  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                102  73 100  73 /  10  10   0  10
Dryden                  100  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            98  73  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           93  69  90  69 /  20  10   0  20
Hobbs                    99  71  97  71 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    92  64  90  63 /  10   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   99  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    101  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...55