306
FXUS64 KMAF 281122
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Patchy (locally dense) fog possible early this morning mainly
  across portions of southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and
  Lower Trans- Pecos due to increasing Gulf moisture. Visibilities
  may fall below 1/4 mile locally.

- Isolated showers/storms this afternoon across portions of far
  west Texas, southeast New Mexico, and higher terrain.

- Numerous showers/storms are in store Thursday through Friday
  evening across mainly the eastern half of the region. Multiple
  rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding, especially
  across low-lying and urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, nighttime microphysics shows clear skies across most
of the area. However, this is expected to change within the next few
hours, thanks to increasing low-level moisture from the Gulf. This
is forecast to develop low clouds across portions of southeast New
Mexico, the Permian Basin, and Lower Trans-Pecos. Additionally,
patchy fog can be expected early this morning across portions of
these same areas. Isolated spots of dense fog may develop,
reducing visibilities below 1/4 mile. Be sure to heed caution if
you find yourself out during low visibilities! Surface heating
shall mix out any fog that develops by mid-to-late morning. This
afternoon, isolated convection is once again possible over/near
the higher terrain of far west Texas and southeast New Mexico in
the upslope flow regime. Otherwise, highs top out a few degrees
above normal (upper 70s to low 80s for most) as thicknesses
slightly increase.

The forecast begins to take a major change Thursday morning. Height
falls associated with an upper-level shortwave trough and
anomalously high moisture content from the remnants of Tropical
Storm Vance bring rainfall across much of the region Thursday.
Scattered to numerous coverage (50-90% chance) in showers and storms
are forecast to start across the Presidio Valley, Big Bend, and
Lower Trans-Pecos Thursday morning before advancing northward by
early-to-mid afternoon. Climatologically speaking, precipitable
water (PWAT) values well exceed the 90th percentile range across
these same regions and the Permian Basin. This suggests an
environment favorable for flash flooding, especially in locations
where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur. Urban streets and low
spots in hilly terrain are where the biggest concerns of
considerable flash flooding may result. The overall severe weather
threat remains low, but guidance indicates a brief window of
opportunity for a storm or two becoming strong Thursday afternoon.
Excessive water loading may produce gusty winds in the strongest of
storms. The flash flood threat continues into the Long Term period
and additional details regarding this event can be found in the Long
Term discussion below.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances peak Thursday night into Friday
morning across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico as the
upper-level disturbance begins to advance across the area. By Friday
evening/overnight, much of this activity departs to the north of our
region. Throughout the event, the best rain chances are still over
the eastern half of the area, specifically the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans-Pecos, where chances generally range between 80-90%.
That being said, measurable rainfall chances across the whole area
largely range from 60-80%. Some uncertainty still exists within
guidance as to how much rain will fall. The highest chances for any
given location seeing 1-2 inches of rain during the event continues
to show up over the Lower Trans-Pecos and much of the Permian Basin
(especially eastern and northern portions of the Basin). In general,
ensembles depict lower rainfall totals for western/southwesternmost
counties. Some models also depict the potential for a dry slot to
develop as the system moves across the area, though where the
associated localized rainfall minima may set up remains uncertain
at this time. In any case, flash flooding is going to be our main
concern throughout this timeframe for much of the region.

Aside from isolated remnant activity Saturday, most locations stay
dry for Halloween as the system departs. By Sunday, another system
nears the region from the south, while a larger trough dives down
from the north. Out ahead of the first system, low (20-40%) rain
chances develop once again across mainly the northern half of the
area Sunday afternoon and evening. While the second system looks
drier overall, it will bring with it a front and gusty winds by
Monday and into Tuesday. Just how strong winds become, and how cool
temperatures will be, depends on the track of the upper-level system
and the strength of the front as it enters our area. Right now the
NBM drops highs back into the 60s and low 70s by Tuesday and
Wednesday, but plenty of model spread still exists, so stay tuned
for updates! Otherwise, highs remain in the mid-to-upper 70s and low
80s most days through the Long Term (upper 60s and low 70s Friday
thanks to increased cloud cover and rain).

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

IFR (brief LIFR) CIGs are forecast to continue through 15/16Z this
morning at CNM/HOB/MAF. BR/FG may develop across these areas,
reducing VIS to as low as IFR/LIFR. Have opted to leave out of TAFs
(with the exception of CNM) due to low confidence and amendments
will be made as needed. Any FG that develops should clear aft
15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail the remainder of this
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               81  61  76  58 /   0   0  70 100
Carlsbad                 81  58  76  57 /  10  10  40  90
Dryden                   80  62  72  59 /   0  20  90 100
Fort Stockton            82  61  76  59 /  10   0  80 100
Guadalupe Pass           73  56  69  55 /  10   0  50  80
Hobbs                    78  57  74  55 /   0   0  50 100
Marfa                    76  53  69  53 /  10  10  90  90
Midland Intl Airport     79  61  74  58 /   0   0  80 100
Odessa                   79  61  74  59 /   0   0  80 100
Wink                     82  60  77  58 /   0   0  70 100

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55