500
FXUS64 KMAF 061952 CCA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
252 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Scattered showers/storms remain possible this afternoon,
  primarily over the Permian Basin into Lower Trans Pecos. Locally
  heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding of low-lying and
  urban regions.

- A storm or two may become strong to severe across the eastern
  Permian Basin capable of producing quarter size hail and gusty
  winds.

- A much warmer and drier weather pattern settles over the region
  on Sunday continuing into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Water vapor imagery shows the slow moving upper-level low lifting
toward the the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma early this
afternoon. The associated trough axis extends southward through
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos/Big Bend region. A surface
trough meanwhile extends from east central New Mexico into the Big
Bend. Scattered to numerous showers with a few thunderstorms
developed over the northern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling
Plains along the upper-level trough axis this morning. The latest
convection- allowing models continue to show the potential for
additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop mainly over the eastern Permian Basin and the Lower Trans
Pecos region this afternoon where deeper moisture and lift will
become most favored along with pockets of moderate instability. We
will continue to monitor for the potential of isolated strong to
severe storms over eastern portions of our forecast area through
the afternoon hours where CAPE values up to 1500-2500 J/KG, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and sufficient shear could allow for a few
stronger updrafts and an associated marginal large hail/wind
threat. A very moist airmass with precipitable water values up to
1.25-1.50 inches will support locally heavy rainfall and flooding
with storms that develop through this afternoon. Storm chances
should diminish by the early to mid evening hours.

The upper-level trough will continue to lift away from our region
tonight. A final weak shortwave impulse rounding the back side of
this system will clip across eastern New Mexico and west Texas
tonight. We could see isolated showers and thunderstorms clip
across far southeast New Mexico or the western Permian Basin with
this feature late this evening/overnight, but confidence was low
enough to keep POPs below mentionable levels for now. Ridging
aloft will gradually build into southeast New Mexico and west
Texas behind the departing system tonight into Sunday. Lower
precipitable water values and increasing subsidence will settle
into our forecast area through Sunday afternoon underneath the
building ridge. A few very isolated showers and thunderstorms
could still develop over the higher terrain of west/southwest
Texas Sunday afternoon, but overall we expect dry conditions to
prevail across the region. Temperatures will finally trend much
warmer Sunday afternoon with highs slated to reach into the mid
90s to around 100 degrees. A few locations along the Pecos River
Valley and along the Rio Grande could reach between 100-105
degrees. Overnight lows mostly range in the 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Above average warmth and near zero rain chances extend into early
next week. Highs Monday rise to the 100F-105F range not just for
the southern Rio Grande basin, but for the Pecos River valley into
Upper Trans Pecos, surrounded by highs in the mid to upper 90s F
to lower 100s F elsewhere. Rain chances remain near zero as mid to
upper ridging provides large scale subsidence and warming, while
dew point temperatures remain in the 50s and 60s F east of lee
troughing/a diffuse dryline over the western higher terrain. This
will result in a risk of hazardous heat developing for regions
that see highs above 100F and especially in the 105F-110F range.
Westerly winds west of the diffuse dryline over the central
portion of the area will bring in drier air with dew point
temperatures in the 40s F from the Presidio Valley into Eddy
County plains for the first time in a while, but this will not
result in much cooling of apparent temperatures due to the return
of 95F+ heat. Overnight lows only fall into the mid 60s to mid 70s
F apart from lower 60s F for the Davis Mountains, as the humid
air and 15 to 25 mph south/southeast winds in the LLJ east of the
troughing/dryline limit overnight cooling. PoPs increase into the
25% to 35% range across the northern SE NM plains Tuesday and
western higher terrain Wednesday as mid to upper ridging breaks
down slightly and disturbances again begin to clip the area.
Otherwise, no major weather events are forecast, with hazardous
heat along the Rio Grande remaining the main notable feature
amidst a sea of mid to upper 90s F highs and triple digits along
the usual warmer spots. Lighter westerly winds from the Presidio
Valley into Eddy County plains will veer back to south/southeast
upslope flow and remain light by Tuesday as the diffuse dryline
and lee troughing retreat to the west.

The pattern becomes more quasi-zonal by the end of next week, but
with storm track largely remaining to the north of the forecast
area. PWATs stay at least 2 standard deviations above normal and
in the 1.00" to 1.20" range. Therefore, brief heavy rainfall will
remain a risk with any heavier showers/storms. 50s and 60s F dew
point temperatures east of the western higher terrain and SE NM
plains will also maintain a hot and humid airmass even as this
region stays farther removed form higher PoPs. At the same time,
there will be greater proximity of western parts of the forecast
area to subtly troughed flow and passing disturbances that provide
lift and deep moisture convergence for shower/storm formation.
Therefore, we continue to expect at least 25% to 35% PoPs each
afternoon/evening over the western higher terrain. Highs remain in
the mid to upper 90s F, lower 100s F northeast Permian Basin,
Pecos River valley, basins of Culberson County, and along the Rio
Grande, with 105F-110F for parts of the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend, and potential for hazardous heat wherever more humid regions
see highs above the upper 90s F. The persistent humid airmass and
increased southerly winds in a LLJ northeast of the Pecos River
each night east of foothills and higher elevations plains will
also continue to limit overnight cooling, keeping lows in the mid
60s to mid 70s F. Overall, expect the Permian Basin and Stockton
Plateau to experience a summer-like daytime temperature and
humidity pattern and a late spring-like windy LLJ pattern in the
evening through the overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

MVFR ceilings that briefly developed over KMAF late this morning
have scattered as of 1715Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
over the local terminals through Sunday morning. Scattered SHRA
and TSRA may develop again this afternoon over the eastern Permian
Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos, but confidence was too low to
include mention at KMAF and KFST. Winds generally remain light
through the period, but may increase to 10-15 knots from the south
at KFST by this evening and at KMAF by early Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  96  71  97 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 65 101  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   69  99  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            67 100  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  90  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    62  97  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    55  94  59  96 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  97  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   67  97  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     67 100  70 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21