346
FXUS64 KMAF 041131
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Near record high temperatures are expected today. Temperatures
  gradually decrease this weekend and into next week.

- Isolated to scattered (10-40% chance) showers/storms are
  possible each day, mainly west of the Pecos.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Today will be the hottest day of the forecast period and perhaps
the unofficial end to summer heat. The first week of September
normally marks the beginning of noticeably cooler temperatures
from the summer months and that trend seems to be on schedule.
This is not to say we won`t see more days exceeding the century
mark, but they will be the exception and not the norm as highs
generally settle in the 90s this month. Highs Saturday drop a
couple more degrees with the only 100s along the Pecos River and
off the caprock in the northeastern Permian Basin.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

While high pressure remains centered over the southern Great
Plains the next seven days, upper ridging over West Texas and
eastern New Mexico weakens and flow becomes more southeasterly
allowing for slightly cooler and more moist air to advect into the
area. Highs drop down into the mid 90s next week which is a
welcome relief to recent heat though still a few degrees above
normal. The NBM may be underestimating rain chances next week,
especially in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River when
daytime heating combines with better moisture to produce afternoon
showers and storms.

The extended period is interesting looking west into the Pacific.
Models are showing a trough in the western United States becoming
stationary and possibly pulling in moisture from east Pac tropical
systems across northern Mexico and into our CWA. Confidence is low
in increasing rain chances next weekend, but it will be something
to keep an eye on.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Scattered TS/SHRA will redevelop this afternoon after 18Z.
Coverage should be less than yesterday so there is too much
uncertainty to mention in the TAFs at this time. VFR conditions
will remain.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  74 100  74 /  20  20   0   0
Carlsbad                101  73 100  73 /  20  10   0  30
Dryden                  102  75  99  74 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Stockton           100  73  98  72 /  20  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  69  90  69 /  10  20  20  10
Hobbs                   100  72  98  71 /  20  20  10  20
Marfa                    91  63  90  61 /  30  20  50  10
Midland Intl Airport    100  74  98  74 /  20  20   0   0
Odessa                  100  75  98  74 /  20  20   0   0
Wink                    102  75 100  74 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10