409
FXUS64 KMAF 151720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1120 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1119 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Near record highs and dry conditions are expected through
  Sunday.

- A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly
  cooler temperatures early next week.

- An upper-level system brings more seasonable temperatures and
  increasing rain chances (30-50%) by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

An upper-level ridge will maintain a firm grip over west Texas and
southeast New Mexico through Sunday afternoon. Low level thermal
ridging will become enhanced across much of our forecast area on
Saturday afternoon ahead of a weak front that will be moving into
the Texas panhandle. Record heat looks to be a good bet over our
region on Saturday as high temperatures are boosted into the mid 80s
to around 90 degrees underneath the ridging aloft and also along the
low level thermal ridge axis. The record high for November 15th at
Midland is 84 degrees (set in 2021 and 1963) and it looks like we
will have the opportunity to smash that record by 3-5 degrees (we
currently have 88 in the forecast). The weak boundary may sag into
northern portions of our CWA by late Saturday night before becoming
diffuse on Sunday morning as surface troughing becomes re-
established over our area. Lows Saturday night may drop into the mid
to upper 40s behind the boundary but otherwise range in the 50s over
most of our region. Another day of near record heat is anticipated
Sunday with highs once again ranging in the 80s over much of the
area. The record at MAF on Sunday is 86 set in 1963 and it looks
like we will have a chance of at least tying that number. Mostly
clear skies and dry conditions otherwise continue through the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Monday, the upper ridge will eject north of the region, leaving West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft.  The NAM
develops a mtn wave signature over the Guadalupes, suggesting and
afternoon of high winds there, but the 06Z run is backing off, and
so it appears only advisory level winds will develop there.  We`ll
keep an eye on this.  Instead, a weak Pac front and decreasing
thicknesses will continue the downward trend in temperatures,
w/highs Monday afternoon being the warmest of the extended, coming
in a pleasant 12-14 F above climatology.

Meanwhile, a secondary trough will be digging down the west coast,
making landfall in SoCal Tuesday/Tuesday night.  Leeside troughing
on the Front Range ahead of the trough will increase return flow up
the Pecos River and Rio Grande Valleys, advecting in Gulf moisture
and sharpening up a weak dryline mid-CWA by 06Z Wednesday.  This
will open up a window for convection beginning over the eastern
Permian Basin/Western Low Rolling Plains late Tuesday night, and
expanding beyond our western border Wednesday night/Thursday as the
trough approaches.  It`s too early to mention the s-word this far
out, but the long range models depict 60-70 kts of bulk shear
rounding the base of the trough Wednesday night, so this will need
to be monitored.

The trough moves through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
Thursday, with rain chances tapering off to the east as the trough
exits Thursday night.  Thicknesses will keep coming down as the
trough moves through, and this will combine w/clouds/precip to yield
highs Thursday afternoon w/in a degree or so of normal. Temperatures
begin a slow recovery Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions and light winds continue the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 87  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   85  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  59  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           78  53  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    86  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    83  47  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   88  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     89  51  85  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...10