017
FXUS64 KMAF 131118
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
618 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Rain chances and a risk of localized flash flooding hang around
  in the forecast through Tuesday. Best odds for rainfall will
  span from SE NM down toward the Davis Mts.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions set in by
  midweek. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day of the
  week.

- A cold front brings cooler conditions back during the upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Light to moderate showers are spread over southeast New Mexico
southward across the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains. A tenth of
an inch of rain or two has fallen in a few spots and about this much
more rain can be expected over the next several hours for most
locations. This activity will continue through the day today with
the Permian Basin and the I-10 corridor seeing lower rain
chances(around 10-30%). A rumble of thunder and brief heavy rain
cannot be ruled out, but severe weather is currently not expected.
Localized flash flooding may be possible across the high terrain,
but with limited heavy rain potential is not likely to happen. Highs
this afternoon will be limited by rain and clouds. Areas to the
southeast and further removed from the greatest rain chances will be
the warmest. Big Bend and the Stockton Plateau make it into the 80s
to low 90s whereas the Permian Basin and high terrain stick to the
low to mid 80s and upper 70s.

Temperatures tonight settle into the 60s for most with upper 50s for
the mountains. With lower rain coverage expected during the day on
Tuesday, temperatures increase a few degrees above today`s
forecasted highs. Many locations reach into the mid to upper 80s
with cloudier or rain cooled areas in the 70s to low 80s. Rain
chances further decrease late in the day on Tuesday as the system
associated with the rain begins to move away from our area.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Drier conditions and a warming trend continues at the start of the
long term period. Upper-level ridging builds overhead through
Wednesday while a trough deepens over the western US. Temperatures
Wednesday afternoon reach into the 80s, with 90s along the Rio
Grande. The trough out west is expected to track towards our region
Thursday, developing a lee trough and a surface low over the
Great Plains. Thursday afternoon, temperatures warm a few degrees
over Wednesday`s. Most see temperatures top out in the 80s, while
portions of the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande reach into
the 90s. A cold front sweeps in Friday into Saturday, bringing
slightly closer to normal conditions to the region. Cooler
temperatures associated with the post-frontal air mass shall
persist through the upcoming weekend before flow aloft becomes
zonal Sunday evening into Monday. Thus, highs over portions of
southeast New Mexico and the higher elevations in west Texas reach
the 70s each afternoon, 80s for almost everyone else. Overnight
lows through the upcoming weekend are forecast to mainly settle
into the upper 40s (in our northwestern and westernmost counties)
to 50s.

-Lopez

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Scattered -SHRA remains through the day with lower chances of
impacts at FST/MAF. Winds outside of any convection remain around
10kts or less. VFR continues through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  63  86  60 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 80  62  83  61 /  30  40  20   0
Dryden                   89  66  86  66 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            88  64  86  63 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           72  59  75  57 /  40  30  20   0
Hobbs                    79  61  82  58 /  50  20  10   0
Marfa                    82  56  82  53 /  30  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     84  64  85  62 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                   84  64  84  62 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                     85  66  85  61 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93