649
FXUS64 KMAF 011745
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Strong northerly winds of at least 35 to 50 mph are expected for the
  Guadalupes, Delawares, and mountain passes from late tonight
  through at Friday afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures below 80F north of the Rio Grande basin
  expected by Friday and continuing through early weekend.

- Unsettled weather characterized by daytime showers/storms expected
  each day from late week through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Lee troughing which strengthened into a cold front over the
central and eastern parts of the forecast area yesterday will
continue to develop east of the area through today. As a result,
PoPs above 30% will exit the area by daybreak. However, another
cold front is expected to develop in from the north by the early
afternoon. West/northwest winds shift to northerly and increase to
15 to 20 mph with higher gusts to 25 mph in response. Courtesy of
the reinforcing CAA from the secondary cold front developing in
from the north, highs today only rise up to the mid 70s higher
elevations and up to the mid 80s F lowlands, with 90s F only
present closer to the Big Bend. Cloud cover will increase in the
more humid air behind the reinforcing front, and by late evening,
PoPs increase into the 25% to 35% range over the SE NM plains into
the Upper Trans Pecos and northwest Permian Basin. However, high-
res CAMs show most of the activity remaining scattered, light,
and mainly over the Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau, so no
significant flooding concerns are expected despite the recently
saturated soils. The bigger story will be wind: with the mid to
upper storm system accompanying the surface cold front finally
beginning to develop to the east and northerly flow increasing on
the backside, northerly winds 35 to 50 mph are forecast over the
Guadalupes and Delawares and mountain passes from late evening
into midnight through mid-morning into afternoon Friday. While
under High Wind product criteria, these strong northerly winds
will still pose hazardous conditions for any travel through the
passes. While cooler than previous nights, boundary layer mixing
from strong winds will keep lows in the 60s F for the lowlands and
the upper 40s to mid 50s F for higher elevations into the SE NM
plains and northwest Permian Basin.

Shower/storm chances and even cooler high temperatures headline
Friday, as PoPs 35% to 45% shift south/southeast from the
Guadalupes into the Marfa Plateau and Stockton Plateau over the
afternoon while northerly winds begin to decrease below 20 to 25
mph for lowlands and below 35 to 50 mph for highest elevations,
while shifting to more northeasterly. Highs Friday will struggle
to reach 70F for northern Lea County and northwest Permian Basin
as well as the western higher terrain, and struggle to reach above
80F except for the Rio Grande basin and Terrell County. As on
Thursday night, any shower/storm activity is not expected to be
heavy or widespread enough in duration to warrant any major
flooding concerns, while strong winds and gusts will still pose a
hazardous weather threat to any travel through the passes. As
northeasterly winds decrease through the evening and overnight
allowing more efficient overnight cooling, lows fall below 60F
north of the Rio Grande basin and below 50F for the Guadalupes,
foothills of the Marfa Plateau, and northernmost Lea County.
Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather will still be the story
this weekend through early next week. More details are in the Long
Term Discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Northeasterly winds and temperatures largely below 80F north of
the Rio Grande basin persist Saturday, while surface high pressure
over the Rockies fails to filter down into the area and core of
rebuilding mid-level ridging that would suppress rain chances
stays off to the west. This will mean continued daytime
shower/storm chances each day this weekend, although highest
chances (25% to 35%) are currently indicated south of the Pecos
River and from the Marfa Plateau into Terrell County. Most likely
rainfall amounts as well as exact timing and coverage of any
showers/storms remain uncertain this far out, but no flash
flooding threat is indicated at this time. Highs warm back into
the 70s and 80s F Sunday and Monday, then solidly into the mid to
upper 80s F for lowlands and back into the mid to upper 70s F for
higher elevations Tuesday as east/northeast winds veer back to
southeasterly. By mid-week next week, 90s F are even indicated for
the usual warmer spots along the Pecos River and northeast
Permian Basin. However, lows will stay in the 50s and 60s F rather
than remaining above 70F, while dew point temperatures also
remain below the mid 50s F for most of the area. Therefore, even
the return of warmer weather next week is not yet expected to meet
or exceed the level of warmth seen earlier last month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period.
Winds will be breezy out of the north and northwest, becoming
northeasterly early tomorrow morning. Gusts may occasionally reach
up to 30 kts at most terminals this afternoon into tonight. Isolated
to scattered showers and an overall increase in cloud coverage
may drop ceilings to MVFR at most sites tomorrow morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  74  58  75 /   0  20  40  30
Carlsbad                 59  69  56  74 /  40  60  10  10
Dryden                   65  81  62  76 /   0  20  50  50
Fort Stockton            60  75  57  72 /  10  50  40  50
Guadalupe Pass           53  61  51  65 /  30  50  20  10
Hobbs                    58  68  54  73 /  40  30  10  10
Marfa                    52  70  50  70 /  10  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     63  74  59  75 /  10  20  30  30
Odessa                   63  73  59  75 /  10  30  30  30
Wink                     61  75  58  76 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...95