316
FXUS64 KMAF 291130
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 622 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and runoff from already
  saturated soils remain a concern across the SE NM plains and the
  northwest Permian Basin today through tomorrow morning.

- Strong shear accompanying remnants of Hurricane Polo yields
  threat for spin-up tornadoes and damaging winds Tuesday evening
  through Tuesday night, especially for the SE NM plains and
  northwest Permian Basin.

- Strong (greater than 35 mph) south/southwest winds Tuesday
  through Wednesday afternoon for higher elevations, then a risk
  for high winds Thursday through Friday evening for the
  Guadalupes and Delawares.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Showers/storms are apparent on radar imagery early this morning,
associated with mid-level Pacific moisture from TC Polo over Baja
CA. This setup will continue to provide a favorable situation for
shower/storm development this afternoon, amidst continued humid
southeast, upslope winds. High-res CAMs indicate heaviest storms
developing over Culberson County and Big Bend, then moving
northeast and taking on an increasingly linear/bowed
configuration. Following showers/storms through this morning,
breaks in cloud cover allowing for daytime heating allow highs to
rise into the mid 80s to mid 90s F. PoPs increase from less than
35% apart from the SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin late
this morning through late this afternoon, into the 45% to 60%
range north of the Marfa Plateau and northeast of the Pecos River
by 5 pm through 9 pm. Due to strong winds accompanying the remnant
circulation of Hurricane Polo, as well as the circulation merging
with a mid to upper storm system over the Desert SW, storm
configuration and directional and speed shear yield a threat for
spin-up tornadoes in addition to damaging straight-line winds. The
threat is highest over Culberson County into the SE NM plains and
northwest Permian Basin, where CAPE nearing 1000 J/kg and 0-3km
SRH nearing 150-250 m2/s2 will be maximized, and where CAMs are
most consistent in showing linear bowing segment(s) over these
regions. However, any place where stronger storms occur will have
a threat of spin-up tornadoes and strong winds through late
tonight (12 am to 3 am) due to the favorable ambient shear
environment. Under widespread low cloud cover and and strong
south/southwest winds 25 to 35 limiting overnight cooling, another
night of mid 60s to mid 70s F lows is expected.

PoPs will not completely taper off tomorrow, as the mid to upper
storm system providing forcing for showers/storms will be slow to
develop east of the area. However, southerly winds shift to
west/southwest as a lee trough over central and eastern portions
of the area strengthens into a cold front and progresses east.
Strong winds of 35 to 45 mph are forecast at times for the
Guadalupes and passes from Tuesday night through Wednesday
afternoon as remnants of TC Polo merge with the mid to upper storm
system, but no wind products are in effect at this time. The near
surface wind shift by tomorrow afternoon limits rain chances to
more humid air ahead of the cold front, over the Lower Trans Pecos
into eastern Permian Basin (35% to 50% chance) through tomorrow
evening. A lower but nonzero severe threat will again be present.
However, storm coverage stays more isolated, limiting probability
of further widespread rainfall. As a result, the Flood Watch
currently in effect is still expected to expire on Wednesday
morning. Highs similar to today expect falling below 80 F for the
westernmost and northern SE NM plains are forecast, and cooler air
will not immediately filter into the area. By the time PoPs have
winded down by late Wednesday night, there is a high (50% to 75%)
chance that total rainfall of at least 0.50" will have fallen for
much of the area northeast of the Marfa Plateau outside of dry
slotting, up to 0.75" to 1.00" for the Guadalupes and SE NM plains
as well as eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County, and a 35%
to 50% chance of rainfall up to 1.0" to 1.5" over the SE NM
plains. Lows drop below 70F (60s F lowlands, 50s F higher
elevations) as the cold front clears the area and winds shift to
west/northwest behind the front by Thursday morning. Due to slow
movement of the mid to upper storm system that is expected to
linger near the CO Rockies and TX PH, unsettled weather persists
into the end of the week. More details in the Long Term Discussion
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Strong northwest and then northerly winds persist over the
forecast area into the end of the week as the mid to upper storm
system will be slow to flatten over the High Plains. As the system
develops east and loses strength, northwesterly winds will shift
to northerly aloft and at the surface on the backside of the storm
system. Highs will remain below the 90s F apart from the Big Bend
and below the upper 70s F higher elevations Thursday as this
occurs. With disturbances aloft on the backside of the system
focusing moisture and providing lift for storm development in
combination with daytime heating, afternoon/evening storms are
still expected over the Upper Trans Pecos into Lower Trans Pecos,
although coverage and timing this far out is uncertain. Winds
become northerly/northeasterly by Thursday night and increase to
High Wind criteria over the Guadalupes and Delawares as a
reinforcing cold front makes its way south. Boundary layer mixing
Thursday night keeps lows similar to Wednesday night, but by
Friday, CAA in strong northerly winds will become more apparent as
highs are expected to fail to rise above the 80s F north of the
Rio Grande basin, above the 70s F for higher elevations, and above
90s F along the Rio Grande. Daytime heating will still allow for
isolated daytime storms near higher elevations and the eastern
Permian Basin, although no severe weather threat is indicated late
week at this time. High winds will persist over the Guadalupes
and Delawares through Friday evening before decreasing, as lows
fall below 60F north of the Rio Grande basin, and below 50F for
higher elevations, foothills of the Marfa Plateau, and northern
Lea County.

Isolated shower/storm activity persists through the weekend into
early next week as high pressure over the Rockies will not be able
to build far enough south to suppress all storm activity, and
core of mid to upper ridging where greatest amount of sinking
motion suppresses rain chances will remain west of the area. Highs
on Saturday remain similar to Friday, with lows Saturday night
only a few degrees warmer than Friday night. As mid to upper
ridging builds late weekend through early next week, a warming
trend in highs remains in the forecast, although highs as warm as
we saw earlier this week are not apparent by early next week at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

SHRA will continue through this morning mainly at MAF and FST
terminals which will briefly reduce VIS to MVFR/IFR. MVFR CIGs
may occur across terminals during the morning hours with the
highest confidence being at FST and HOB. Breezy southeasterly
winds are expected to begin late this morning into the early
afternoon hours at most sites (besides CNM). Additional storms
develop during the afternoon before becoming numerous to
widespread across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas early
this evening. Strong winds and heavy downpours reducing VIS will
be the main impacts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  72  88  65 /  20  50  60  50
Carlsbad                 86  65  81  59 /  70  80   0   0
Dryden                   93  74  93  70 /  20  60  30  70
Fort Stockton            91  72  90  65 /  30  40  30  40
Guadalupe Pass           77  60  68  53 /  70  60   0   0
Hobbs                    84  65  81  58 /  70  80   0  10
Marfa                    84  62  80  55 /  30  40  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     88  72  86  64 /  30  50  30  40
Odessa                   87  73  86  65 /  30  50  30  30
Wink                     92  72  87  64 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Lea-Eddy County
     Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11