589
FXUS64 KMAF 280845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- After today, temperatures will cool a degree or two into next
  week, still climbing into the triple digits most locations each
  afternoon.  Additional Heat Advisories are likely, as the
  effects of heat are cumulative, and present an increasing risk
  of heat- related illnesses.

- There will be a slight chance for rain along with a weak cold
  front this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Persistence continues today, with WV imagery showing the upper ridge
parked over northeastern New Mexico and the Panhandles.  This is
where it was 24 hours ago, so it`s no surprise that today`s highs
will be very similar to yesterday`s.  Therefore, the current Heat
Advisories will continue through early early evening, with the
addition of the Chisos Basin, where it looks to be a couple of
degrees warmer than what was portended 24 hours ago.  To those who
prefer cooler weather, today appears to be the warmest day this
forecast.

Tonight, unseasonably warm overnight minimums continue, mainly due
to a recurring LLJ every night, occasionally assisted by mid/high
clouds to retard radiational cooling.  Overnight lows will come in ~
6-8 F above climatology.  Unfortunately, there`s no end in sight to
these warmer temperatures.

Wednesday, the ridge weakens a little, decreasing thicknesses and
shaving a couple of degrees off highs, which should top out ~ 6-8 F
above normal.  These highs may be low enough to negate the need for
heat advisories, but the Davis Mountains may need one, especially if
current forecast highs increase.

Unfortunately, short term grids remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

In the extended, the upper ridge is still forecast to meander west
into next week, with the LREF and global models in agreement in
taking it southwest of the Four Corners by Friday morning.  This
will precipitate a decrease in thicknesses a little, offering some
(but not much) relief from the warm weather of the past few days,
even if KMAF`s peak climatological annual heating is only a couple
of days away.  Heat Advisories may still be needed to some extent or
another each day beginning around Friday or so.  Toward the weekend,
the ridge may be far enough west that isolated convection may creep
back into the mix, mainly Southeast New Mexico and the higher
terrain of West Texas.  Models try to bring a very weak cold front
into the area Saturday, which may kick off a little convection
Saturday evening. But rain chances will be minimal at best.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR/CAVU conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light return
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              102  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                105  75 102  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  101  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           102  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           97  71  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                   102  72 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    99  66  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport    100  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                  100  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    103  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Ward.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99