093
FXUS64 KMAF 160526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms develop each afternoon over western
  portions of the region this afternoon/evening and tomorrow. Some
  storms may produce strong winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
  rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the weekend and into
  next week. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Persistence rules.  WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge
centered over the southeastern CONUS, deflecting warmer conditions
away from West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and as reflected by
the myriad heat advisories/warnings in effect over there.  As
there`s been little change over the past 24 hours, highs this
afternoon should be similar to yesterday`s, if not a degree cooler,
as thicknesses have decreased.  Upslope flow will work in tandem
w/instability and abundant moisture out west to produce afternoon
convection, mainly along and west of the Pecos.  An inverted trough
will move west into the Big Bend Area, with little effect except to
continue bringing down thicknesses/temperatures.

Tonight, unfortunately, unseasonably warm minimums continue, mainly
due to a LLJ of around 35 kts, and a few mid/high clouds.  Lows
should average ~ 5-7 F above normal, a degree or two cooler than
this morning due to less cloud cover.   Convection should diminish
during the evening after peak heating concludes.

Sunday looks to be the coolest day this forecast, w/the inverted
trough still in the Big Bend Area.  High should average only around
5 F above normal.  Upslope flow will once again result in an
afternoon of convection, mainly along and west of the Pecos, only
maybe a bit farther west than this afternoon.

Sunday night looks like a repeat of tonight, only dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Above normal temperatures continue next week as the upper-level
ridge remains dominant over the region. Afternoon highs in the mid
90s to low 100s can be expected each day this work week, with the
hottest spots ranging from 105 to near 110 along the Rio Grande.
Upslope flow and diurnal heating yields a low (~10%) chance of
showers and storms over the Davis Mountains on Monday, though the
rest of the forecast area remains dry. Sinking motion under the
ridge keeps the remainder of the week dry areawide.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

South/southeast winds at terminals throughout the period, with
gusts up to 20 knots and higher through the afternoon and early
evening. A very low (<10%) chance of isolated showers/storms is
present this afternoon through evening, mainly for terminals on
the Upper Trans Pecos. Brief heavy rainfall, lightning, small
hail, and strong and variable winds are expected to be the main
impacts from any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              100  73 100  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  72  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   98  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            96  73  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           89  67  90  68 /  10   0  10   0
Hobbs                    97  69  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    88  61  90  62 /  20   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     97  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   97  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     98  74  99  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94