263
FXUS64 KMAF 191135
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 631 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Highs remain above normal through Monday, but trend cooler
  beginning Tuesday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
  region through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of
  producing localized strong downburst winds, frequent lightning,
  and heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances continue into the early to middle part of next
  week. Some storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
  rainfall and flash flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery and 500 mb height analysis
indicate that the upper-level high remains centered over the
ArkLaTex region while an upper-level low was located over Idaho
with its associated trough extending through the Great Basin and
Desert Southwest. A shortwave impulse embedded within southwesterly
flow aloft between these features resulted in the development of
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Guadalupe Mountains
during the late evening and overnight hours. The mesonet site at
the Guadalupe Mountains National Park picked up a little over a
half inch of rain between late Friday evening and the pre-dawn
hours this morning. Mostly clear skies and dry weather conditions
otherwise prevail over the remainder of the forecast area early
this morning.

The upper-level ridge will maintain its position over
east/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex region today, while
southwesterly mid to upper-level flow increases over southeast New
Mexico and portions of west and southwest Texas on the western
periphery of this ridge and also ahead of the trough to our west
and northwest. A series of shortwave impulses embedded within this
W-SW flow aloft will translate over the region this afternoon and
evening, while a surface trough axis meanwhile extends from the
Texas panhandle into portions of southeast New Mexico and far west
and southwest Texas. Plenty of moisture will remain in place this
afternoon and evening, with precipitable water values ranging
between 1-1.5 inches over most of the region. We expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms (30-50% chance) to develop this
afternoon over the Van Horn Corridor, Davis Mountains, Marfa
Plateau, and portions of the Big Bend and Upper Trans Pecos
region. Other isolated (10-20%) showers/storms may develop over
the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico plains, and western
Permian Basin by late this afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms (30-50%) should continue to develop/expand into the
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend through the evening
hours. Forecast soundings over the region indicate that lapse
rates will be steep this afternoon/evening with plenty of
downdraft CAPE available (1000-1500 J/KG) to support a few
stronger storm cores capable of producing localized strong to
severe downburst winds. Frequent lightning strikes and heavy
rainfall will also accompany the stronger storms that develop and
the locally heavy rainfall rates could result in localized flash
flooding this afternoon and evening. Highs today will remain well
above normal with readings in he mid to upper 90s for most
locations, except in the mid 80s to lower 90s in the mountains and
up to 100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight will
mostly range in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

The plume of deeper moisture with associated precipitable water
values over 1 inch looks to shift eastward along an axis from the
Permian Basin to the southwest mountains/Big Bend region on
Sunday, while a drier airmass (PWATs of 0.6 to 0.9 inches) advects
into southeast New Mexico. Isolated to scattered (20-50%) mainly
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop over
these locations, while activity should be much more sparse in
nature over our northwestern zones (one or two cells could manage
to develop over the higher terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains).
We will continue to monitor for locally heavy rainfall and
strong/gusty winds, especially from the Permian Basin down into
the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau/Big Bend on Sunday. Highs
remain well above normal Sunday afternoon with readings topping
out similar to those today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The aforementioned upper-level trough over the northwestern and
western U.S. will gradually translate eastward into the northern
and central Plains into Sunday night and will send a cold front
southward through the Texas panhandle Sunday night into Monday
morning. This boundary may become oriented over the southeast New
Mexico plains and Permian Basin by Monday afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along this
boundary and POPs remain pretty decent (30-50% chance) along and
east of the mountains late Monday afternoon into Monday
evening/night. Model solutions remain in good agreement with
keeping the boundary in place over southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin into Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another round of
scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms should
develop along this boundary Tuesday into Tuesday night. Medium
range model solutions also continue to show a plume of tropical
moisture spreading northward from Mexico into portions of far
southwest and west Texas and the southeast New Mexico plains along
the western periphery of the upper-level ridge Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This deeper moisture could serve to enhance convective
coverage over some of our western and northwestern zones,
including the Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, and southeast
New Mexico Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could bring
an increased potential for locally heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding. The upper-level ridge will remain oriented from
central/east Texas into the Gulf Coast states into Thursday, and
additional moisture transport along the western periphery of the
ridge will keep good shower/storm chances in the forecast through
late this week over our western CWA, so we will need to continue
to monitor for heavy rainfall/flooding potential into late week.
The ridge may tend to build westward toward our eastern zones late
in the week, so storm chances may be lower from the Permian Basin
down into the Lower Trans Pecos Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
otherwise trend closer to normal values Tuesday-Friday, with
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s for most,
except 50s in the higher elevations and lower 70s along the Rio
Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the forecast period.
The exception will be localized MVFR visibility reductions near
scattered SHRA and TSRA that will develop across much of the
region late this afternoon into this evening. We kept PROB30
mention for TSRA and associated gusty winds in the KINK, KFST,
and KPEQ with this issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  74  98  70 /   0  30  20  40
Carlsbad                 97  67  97  69 /  20  20  10   0
Dryden                   98  75  97  73 /  10  30  30  20
Fort Stockton            98  72  95  70 /  40  30  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           86  65  87  66 /  20  30  10   0
Hobbs                    95  67  95  67 /  20  30  10  10
Marfa                    91  62  89  61 /  40  50  40  10
Midland Intl Airport     97  73  96  71 /  10  30  20  30
Odessa                   97  74  96  72 /  10  30  20  30
Wink                     98  72  98  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21