459
FXUS64 KMAF 061557
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
957 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 955 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Gusty winds expected this afternoon/early evening (especially in
  the Guadalupes/Delaware Mountains). There is the potential of
  patchy blowing dust across portions of southeast New Mexico,
  much of the Permian Basin, and around the Davis Mountains.

- After a weak front Saturday night/Sunday morning, a warming
  trend develops early next week. Precipitation chances are nil
  through the extended.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 138 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Another day of gusty, downsloping winds is expected this
afternoon/evening as the upper-level system advances and the lee
trough brings about a surface low over the Southern Plains. Winds
are expected to be a bit breezier than they were on Friday as winds
accelerate in response to the surface low. Winds will especially be
strong in the Guadalupe/ Davis Mountains (including the Carlsbad
Caverns), prompting a High Wind Warning being issued once again.
Patchy blowing dust is also possible this afternoon across southeast
New Mexico, much of the Permian Basin, and our western counties of
west Texas in response to the dry gusty winds. Afternoon highs are
forecast to be 2-7 degrees warmer than Friday for most due to clear
skies, northwest flow aloft, and stronger downsloping winds.

A cold front pushes through the area Saturday night into early
Sunday morning, shifting winds northerly to northeasterly, and
dropping Sunday`s afternoon highs 7-10 degrees from today`s for most.
Northwest flow aloft persists on Sunday, keeping skies clear and our
area dry.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 138 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Lows Monday morning dip down into the 30s across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, with upper 20s in the far northern Permian
Basin. Nevertheless, southerly winds begin to redevelop by Monday
morning at the surface. Meanwhile, our region remains under
northwesterly flow aloft. Though Monday`s highs will remain in the
60s areawide, as a result of these factors they trend up 2-4 degrees
above Sunday`s highs. Temperatures continue to tick up daily through
next week, topping out in the 70s areawide by Wednesday and Thursday
(with some highs topping out near/just above 80F Thursday in the
Lower Trans-Pecos and along the Rio Grande). For reference, these
temperatures are about 12-18 degrees above normal for this time of
year. Guidance continues to indicate a front will enter the area
sometime Friday, though details regarding frontal strength and
timing continue to remain uncertain (a lot of spread with regard to
temperatures exists within ensemble members, and our current high is
on the higher end of guidance). In any case, this front will at
least knock highs down closer to normal Friday and Saturday (60s
across much of the area, 70s along the Rio Grande). Stay tuned for
updates! Otherwise, precipitation chances remain near-zero through
the period under clear skies.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Gusty west winds this
afternoon will give way to a weak cold front overnight. A few high
clouds are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               40  61  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 39  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   48  71  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            44  64  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           40  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    36  61  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    35  63  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     41  61  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   42  61  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...99