373
FXUS64 KMAF 032250
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
550 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 547 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

- Another hot day expected Thursday with readings in the mid 90s
  to around 100 degrees over many locations. Dry conditions
  continue through Thursday night.

- Cooler temperatures and low to medium (20-50%) rain chances
  return by this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Upper-level ridging continues to extend from the Pacific Northwest
through much of the Intermountain West and into southeast New Mexico
and west Texas this afternoon, while weak surface ridging also
extends over much of our local area. Hot and dry conditions remain
prevalent this afternoon with generally light winds. Weak ridging
aloft will remain in place over our forecast area tonight through
Thursday night. Associated subsidence and a lack of meaningful
moisture will keep rain chances near zero through the short term
period. Another hot day is expected on Thursday, with highs reaching
into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees over much of southeast New
Mexico and west Texas, except for 80s in the higher terrain and up
to around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande. Overnight lows mostly
range in the 60s to around 70 degrees tonight, except for a few
locations between 55-60 degrees in the higher terrain. Lows by
Thursday night may trend a few degrees warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Active weather and a cooling trend is forecast during the long term
period. Remnants of a tropical system from the eastern Pacific is
expected to move across northern Mexico Friday, supplying
appreciable moisture, vorticity/forcing for ascent, and instability
to the area. As such, chances (10-30%) of rain begin to increase
across our western counties Friday afternoon. Increasing cloud
cover looks to keep afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s, with
70s in the higher terrain.

Heading into Friday evening/early Saturday morning, an upper-level
system located over the Hudson Bay will send a cold front into the
region. This provides an additional source of forcing for ascent,
bringing chances (20-50%) of rain up Saturday through Sunday
afternoon. Latest forecast soundings indicate PWAT values around
1.4", putting this in the 90th percentile range. It`s worth
mentioning that there is still some uncertainty in frontal
positioning. Frontal positioning will play a big role in how the
forecast evolves over time as locations near and along the front
would have the best rain chances. We should thus continue to monitor
trends and keep an eye out on the possibility of flash flooding this
weekend. With that said, widespread afternoon highs in the 80s are
currently expected behind the aforementioned cold front (70s in
the higher terrain). Some model guidance shows the potential for
portions of Lea County, New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin
seeing highs top out in the upper 70s. However, this is strongly
dependent on the positioning of the front, cloud coverage, and
rainfall received. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis depict
the return of upper-level ridging across the area early next week,
bringing lower rain chances (10-30%) and increasing temperatures
slightly.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light
southeasterly winds will shift to southerly/southwesterly this
evening at most terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  99  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 66  97  70  85 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   69  99  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            68  97  71  89 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           66  88  63  74 /   0  10  10  30
Hobbs                    66  95  68  85 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                    55  88  60  79 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     70  99  73  91 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   70  98  72  89 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     66  99  71  87 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11