267
FXUS64 KMAF 071121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

- A cold front moves through this morning, shifting winds to
  northerly, and dropping afternoon highs 7-12 degrees cooler than
  yesterday`s for most.

- Warming trend through much of the extended before a front
  arrives late in the week.

- Precipitation chances remain near-zero through the forecast
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 131 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Surface analysis shows evidence of a cold front draped across the
Texas Panhandle near Amarillo. This cold front is expected to push
through the area overnight/early this morning, shifting winds
northerly, and dropping afternoon highs 7-12 degrees from
yesterday`s for most. Latest upper air analysis and water vapor
imagery shows us under northwest flow aloft, yielding clear skies
and dry conditions. Tonight`s lows are also expected to drop from
the previous night`s in the post-frontal airmass. Clear skies and
light winds will foster effective radiational cooling, yielding
overnight lows in the low-to-mid 40s for most (except 20s in higher
terrain and upper 30s to low 40s near the Rio Grande). Persistent
northwest flow aloft and increasing heights as a ridge builds in
from the west warms temperatures up a few degrees on Monday.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 131 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Dry northwesterly flow aloft persists Tuesday, with southerly to
southwesterly winds at the surface. Skies remain clear, and
temperatures continue to trend up. Highs in the upper 60s and low
70s can be expected across most of West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. This warming trend continues through mid-week, and by
Thursday highs will be in the 70s areawide (low 80s in the Trans-
Pecos and along the Rio Grande). Guidance continues to indicate a
front will enter the area Thursday night or Friday morning, bringing
cooler temperatures back to the region. More ensemble members have
begun to favor a stronger front. As a result, highs have trended
down from previous forecast packages. Temperatures are currently
forecast to top out in the 50s and low 60s across the area Friday
and Saturday. As always, we will continue to monitor trends in the
data, as some spread/uncertainty remains regarding just how cool
temperatures will get. Otherwise, precipitation chances are still
near-zero through the extended.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals the next 24 hours.
Northwesterly to northerly winds are generally expected from the
start of this period and throughout the day Sunday. Winds of 10-
15kts are possible behind a cold front at times before becoming
lighter. Winds become southeasterly to southerly at MAF, INK, FST,
and PEQ by 00-02Z. Whereas CNM and HOB see winds shift southwesterly
to westerly around the same time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  31  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   70  39  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  36  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           56  36  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    60  31  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  26  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     61  34  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   60  35  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     62  32  64  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55