817
FXUS64 KMAF 031911
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
111 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- A strong cold front knocks temperatures down well below normal
  Thursday.

- Low (10-20%) precipitation chances tonight into early Thursday.
  Snow flurries possible across southeast New Mexico and Guadalupe
  Mountains Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation along with
  no travel impacts expected.

- Temperatures rebound near to slightly above normal Friday
  through early next week. Winds over the Guadalupe and Delaware
  Mountains become strong Friday and Saturday afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 111 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

An upper low will skirt to the north of the region late this
afternoon and into tonight. Hi res models and ensembles continue to
show a low (10-20%) chance for precipitation of some form occurring
over northern Eddy and Lea counties beginning around or after sunset
this evening and continuing into early tomorrow morning. Snow
flurries or even a light wintry mix can be expected in these areas
if any precipitation occurs at all. The best moisture, lift, and
temperature profile lies just north further into the Texas Panhandle
and east-central New Mexico. Any chances for frozen precipitation
decrease tomorrow, but rain chances do increase for the Big Bend
during the day tomorrow. Amounts will be low as any activity will be
isolated to scattered in nature.

A cold front pushes through the region tonight and brings low to mid
30s for the Permian Basin and most of the Trans-Pecos. 40s hold on
south of I-10 outside of the mountains. Cloud cover across the
Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and into the high terrain will
keep highs stifled and under 50F. South of I-10, where less cloud
cover is expected, will see temperatures reach into the 50s. 60s may
still be seen across southern Presidio County and parts of Big Bend.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

In stark contrast to Thursday, temperatures Friday are forecast to
be much warmer as westerly and southwesterly surface winds make a
come back. A broad upper-level trough currently well off the coast
of Baja shall be making a gradual approach to our region Friday and
Saturday. As it does so, it`ll generate a surface low off the lee of
the Rockies, steering winds out of the west and southwest both
afternoons. Winds look to be strong over the Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains during this time frame, possibly reaching High
Wind criteria, especially on Saturday afternoon. Downslope flow
also sends afternoon temperatures mainly into the 60s Friday, then
60s and 70s Saturday. The surface low drags a cold front into the
area early Sunday, dropping highs back into the upper 50s (in our
northern counties) to 60s. On the backside of the trough,
northwesterly flow aloft hangs around through at least the first
half of the week. Temperatures inch up a couple of degrees each
day over the last Monday through Wednesday, warming into the 60s
and 70s and remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light
northeasterly winds persist behind a front. Gusts pick up to
around 20-25kts late tonight and decrease by tomorrow morning.
MVFR CIGs approach KMAF tomorrow morning, but uncertainty remains
regarding impact to terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               33  45  32  64 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 33  48  29  63 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   42  55  40  63 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Stockton            36  50  38  67 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           32  45  35  55 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    29  48  28  61 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    31  56  32  61 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     34  46  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   33  46  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     34  48  32  66 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93