629
ACUS11 KWNS 141233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141233
KSZ000-OKZ000-141430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern
Kansas...north central and northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141233Z - 141430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for strong to severe wind gusts may continue
with thunderstorm outflow overspreading the central Kansas/Oklahoma
border vicinity during the next couple of hours.  But this seems
likely to diminish, as thunderstorms begin to weaken, while
approaching the Greater Tulsa vicinity toward mid to late morning.

DISCUSSION...The more intense thunderstorm development is being
maintained above the stronger leading edge of the consolidated
convective cold pool, now east and southeast of the Great Bend and
Medicine Lodge KS vicinities, where 2 hourly surface pressure rises
as high as 3+ mb have recently been observed.  A swath of rear
inflow on the order of 40-60+ kt has been evident in radar data,
mostly in the 2-5 km AGL layer, but measured surface gusts appear to
have mostly remained below severe limits.

This has been propagating southeastward around 30 kt, and could
approach the Tulsa OK vicinity by 15-16Z.  However, due to the
potential stabilizing impacts of downstream convection on the
southeasterly updraft inflow, it remains unclear how much longer
vigorous convective development will be maintained.  As this
weakens, the risk for strong to severe wind gusts is likely to
subsequently diminish as well.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36619853 36859924 37009833 37589793 38219782 38219673
            37389545 36589574 36069685 36419779 36619853

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN