745
ACUS11 KWNS 282352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282352
COZ000-290145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Areas affected...Eastern CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 282352Z - 290145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms are possible this evening
across parts of Eastern CO.  A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar loop shows an isolated supercell
thunderstorm over northeast Morgan County CO, with other cu/tcu
attempting to develop along a weak DCVZ extending eastward from
southern Denver across Arapahoe County.  Other high-based storms are
organizing southward along the foothills into the Colorado Springs
area.  All of this activity will drift slowly southeastward through
mid-evening into a relatively moist and moderately unstable air
mass.  Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and
sufficient deep-layer shear for organization and continued transient
supercell structures.  While there is some risk of locally gusty
winds, the main concern will be occasionally severe hail in the
stronger cells before storms weaken an hour or two after sunset.
Given the marginal nature of the threat, a watch is not anticipated.

..Hart/Smith.. 08/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39920396 40510313 39020259 38430295 38040376 38780471
            39560475 39920396

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN