040
ACUS11 KWNS 150211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150211
OKZ000-KSZ000-150345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...West-central into northern OK and far southern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

Valid 150211Z - 150345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
continues.

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase with time, with a
continued severe threat. The greatest short-term supercell potential
resides across parts of west-central OK.

DISCUSSION...A relatively long-lived supercell (with a history of
producing 2+ inch diameter hail) has shown some signs of weakening
across Caddo County, OK, but additional cells are intensifying to
its west. Strong to extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) and
sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support short-term
supercell potential across parts of western OK. Large to very large
hail and localized severe gusts remain possible with the supercells
in this area. Enlarged low-level hodographs near the remnant outflow
boundary will also support some tornado potential for as long as
surface-based supercells can be sustained.

Farther northeast, storms have recently developed across
north-central OK. Storm coverage is expected to further increase
with time, aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet (as
observed in recent VWPs from KTLX). Convection to the cool side of
the remnant outflow may tend to remain slightly elevated, but
buoyancy and shear are sufficient to support organized convection
across the region into late tonight.

WW 415 has been locally expanded to address the severe threat across
north-central OK. Trends will be monitored regarding the need for
additional watch issuance beyond the 04Z expiration time of WW 415.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34929959 35979957 36659834 36949781 37129751 37139659
            36479647 35849638 35269693 34849834 34929959

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN