472
ACUS11 KWNS 010134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010133
KSZ000-NEZ000-010330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...parts of northwestern into north central Kansas and
adjacent southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...

Valid 010133Z - 010330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
continues.

SUMMARY...The ongoing convective system may tend to weaken, but
renewed strong to severe thunderstorm development might continue to
develop into and northeast of Hill City and the Kansas/Nebraska
state border vicinity through late evening.

DISCUSSION...Notable low-level drying is ongoing across much of
southern through eastern Kansas, as a remnant narrow plume of higher
moisture content returns northwestward toward the Front Range
through southern portions of the mid Missouri Valley, in advance of
weak larger-scale mid-level troughing still digging into the West.
It remains unclear how this will impact the ongoing convective
cluster.  However, the cold pool associated with this cluster is
beginning to surge eastward out ahead of the stronger convection on
its southern flank, to the north of Dodge City, and may tend to
continue to propagate into the drier/substantively stabilizing
environment.  The MCV appears to be maintaining a
north-northeastward migration toward the Hill City vicinity, and
forcing for ascent to its northeast could support renewing vigorous
thunderstorm within the southern fringe of the higher moisture
content/strong potential instability across and north of the
Kansas/Nebraska border into mid to late evening.

..Kerr.. 07/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39740092 40210026 40299895 38519924 38409994 38620010
            39150033 39740092

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN