002
ACUS11 KWNS 061904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061904
FLZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

Areas affected...west-central Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061904Z - 062100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for a brief tornado/waterspout will increase in
the short term across the west-central Florida coast.

DISCUSSION...A few transient supercells have been noted over the
eastern Gulf offshore from the west-central FL coast. Recently, a
more persistent and stronger rotation signature has been noted with
a small supercell west of Tampa Bay. This cell is near the
differential heating zone/cold front where low-level instability in
stronger and low-level SRH is maximized near and north of the
boundary. This cell, and others developing offshore may shift closer
to shore over the next 1-2 hours. As this occurs, a risk for a brief
tornado/waterspout moving onshore will be possible. The risk will
rapidly decrease inland from the immediate coast. Given the
generally modest environmental parameter space and very small and
focused risk area, a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Smith.. 10/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   28128331 28218317 28288300 28288287 28188269 27768247
            27598248 27508249 27358263 27298277 27388301 27668317
            28058333 28128331

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH