Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
771
ACUS11 KWNS 222033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222032
COZ000-UTZ000-222300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024
Areas affected...portions of eastern Utah into western Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222032Z - 222300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind and hail is increasing
across portions of eastern UT into western CO. A WW issuance is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity
across eastern UT/western CO along the entrance region of a 300 mb
jet streak, where a well-mixed boundary layer is now in place.
Latest MRMS-MESH radar data suggests some of the stronger storms may
already be producing at least marginally severe (i.e. 1 inch
diameter) hail. Surface temperatures approaching the upper 80s F
beneath 9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates is contributing to 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest
low-level curvature but considerable mid-level elongation, which
will promote continued multicell/supercell development through the
afternoon. The strongest storms will be accompanied by some severe
wind/hail threat. However, the severe threat should remain isolated,
and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 37901173 40281098 40861015 40900904 40550753 39370717
38010711 37390795 37130931 37091013 37231119 37901173