945
ACUS11 KWNS 121753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121752
KYZ000-INZ000-121945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1953
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Areas affected...central and southern Indiana into central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575...

Valid 121752Z - 121945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 575
continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat is expected to spread south
across the discussion area this afternoon with the potential for
significant gusts up to 75 mph. Some potential exists for a brief
tornado or two. A new watch will likely be required over portions of
far southern Indiana into central Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in volumetric radar data indicate deeper
convective updrafts forming on the western flank of the MCS, near
Terre Haute. That area coincides with where the MCS intersects a
residual outflow boundary that extends south-southeast into
south-central KY. Low-level convergence/ascent along that boundary
in conjunction with the influx of a moderately to strongly unstable
air mass from the west is expected to support further storm
intensification this afternoon over portions of central and southern
IN. Damaging winds with localized gusts up to 75 mph will be the
primary hazard. Some brief tornado potential may materialize to the
immediate east of the outflow boundary, where locally backed
near-surface winds enhance low-level shear.

The severe threat is expected to spread south of the current watch
area in far southern IN into central KY, where a new watch will
likely be required.

..Mead/Thompson.. 08/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   40128744 40608641 40448565 38228439 37718486 37408569
            37638650 38518715 40128744

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN