Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
197 FXUS64 KMEG 080416 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1116 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - High pressure will build into the region bringing cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs are expected to be in the 70s from Wednesday through Friday. - Temperatures will warm back up this weekend with highs reaching into the mid 80s by Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A cold front stretches from near Jonesboro to Union City this evening and is marked by an increase in northerly winds. The front will push through the remainder of the area overnight with clouds and a few weak showers, mainly north of I-40. Cool high pressure will build in for the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Expect some 40s across northern sections especially on Friday morning. There is about a 10 percent chance of seeing a reading in the upper 30s along the KY border on Thursday morning. Upper level ridging will strengthen over the Lower MS Valley this weekend into next week. As a result, temps will start climbing well above normal with mid 80s for highs by Monday continuing well into the next work week. No significant precipitation is on the horizon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Post-frontal low stratus is expected to start developing within the next 6 hours or so. This will most likely be a moving band of low clouds associated with the reinforcing boundary of drier air, not a stationary thick deck. As such, the time frame for MVFR ceilings overnight are a little shorter than a normal transitional season FROPA. If any site were to drop to IFR overnight, it would most likely be Tupelo. All terminals should be fairly quick to improve back to VFR no later than 18Z Wed. Winds look very persistent from the northeast with gusts up to 20 kts after sunrise. CAD && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Recent wetting rains will result in low fire danger for the next few days. Fuels will gradually dry out as temperatures warm and minimum relative humidities fall to between 35 to 45 percent this weekend. This may result in a gradual increase in fire danger. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...CAD