Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
901 FXUS64 KMEG 052313 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 613 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Dry conditions and highs in the upper 80s will persist today with a cooling trend expected through this week. - Rain chances return to the forecast starting tomorrow and will last into Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms are expected. - A cold front will pass Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures into next weekend. Highs are expected to be in the upper 70s and low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Mostly clear weather will continue this afternoon as high pressure continues to remain over the eastern CONUS. Deep moisture, which has been in short supply this weekend, is beginning to advect northward throughout the region ahead of the arrival of a weak Gulf disturbance later this week. However, upper-level ridging will keep precipitation out of the area until tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 80s, with lows in the 60s tonight. Moist advection will continue overnight with upper ridging slackening as a positively tilted trough slowly moves east across the Northern Plains. By tomorrow morning, PWATs are to increase to around 2", which is well above the 90th percentile. Therefore, scattered diurnal showers and storms are likely tomorrow afternoon. Even with anomalous PWATs, the lack of any distinct synoptic forcing or boundaries will keep the threat of flash flooding localized areas that see any training. Through Monday night and early Tuesday morning, the upper trough over the Northern Plains will have amplified and traveled to the Great Lakes. Scattered showers are likely to still be ongoing at this time as southerly moist advection continues with marginal (500-1000 J/kg) MUCAPE. By 12z, NAM/RAP/HREF guidance all have a distinct zone of N/S oriented 925-850 mb frontogenesis occurring along and east of the Mississippi river, gradually propagating eastward throughout West Tennessee during the day. There are discrepancies with regards to the position and evolution of this boundary within this suite of models, but confidence is good that a zone of increased rainfall will accompany the boundary as it moves east. This discrepancy has kept NBM QPF through Wednesday below 1.5", which should increase as we move further into the CAM window. Regardless, the potential for a slow-moving zone of training storms has markedly increased since yesterday where elevated flash flooding concerns are possible Tuesday. Rain will continue into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as a more concerted frontal passage occurs. Rain is expected to end by 00z Thursday after the front has made it south of the region. When all is said and done Wednesday, most areas will receive at least 1" of rain, with upwards of 2"+ possible where training storms are able to persist. Cooler temperatures will take over for the rest of the forecast into next weekend as northwest flow and surface high pressure locks in temperatures behind the cold front. Highs are anticipated to be in the upper 70s and low 80s. The front will stall near the Gulf Coast, making it difficult for moisture to travel inland and keeping our PoPs low after Thursday through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Guidance continues to trend lower with cigs tomorrow. A disturbance moving north across the region will result in a prolonged period of shra beginning late tonight and continuing through the end of the 24/30 hour TAF cycle. Added VCTS at MEM, MKL and JBR for much of the afternoon hours. There does not appear to be much of a signal to narrow down a window for an increased chance for thunderstorms tomorrow, but a weak surface low may increase that risk after 00z tomorrow. Winds will remain southeasterly, generally 6-12kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Fire weather concerns remain low with minimum relative humidity values sticking around 40 to 50 percent. 20 ft winds are slightly elevated today with gusts to around 20 mph possible. Wetting rains will keep fire concerns low through the middle of the week with anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of rainfall expected across much of the region with the potential for locally higher rainfall totals. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JDS