Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
223 FXUS64 KMEG 221725 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of north to central Mississippi this afternoon, where heat indices will be 105 or greater. - Mostly dry conditions are expected through Thursday, with scattered thunderstorms (40 to 60 percent chance) returning Friday afternoon into Saturday. - Near to below normal temperatures will return across the area to end the work week, with heat and humidity returning by Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 A somewhat "cooler" day is progressing across much of the Mid- South compared to the past several days as a frontal boundary slowly traverses the area. The frontal boundary is currently south of the I-40 corridor, generally along the TN/MS stateline. Latest visible satellite imagery shows some additional cloudiness through this region, with some light echoes of KNQA. Since the frontal boundary has yet to clear the area, our southern tier of counties across north to central Mississippi are already seeing heat indices approach 100. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for these locations through the afternoon and early evening, where values may exceed 105. The aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to stall across portions of NE MS by this evening, with some scattered showers lingering in the forecast tonight and into Thursday. The good news for the entire area is that temperatures will be closer to normal Thursday and Friday, with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. By Friday, with the northwest flow regime ongoing, a series of shortwaves will dive towards the area and bring back scattered thunderstorm chances both Friday and Saturday. At the same time, the aforementioned frontal boundary will slowly lift back north as a warm front. There is still some question as to how these systems will interact, but will keep isolated to scattered PoPs in the forecast through much of Friday and Saturday. Some CAMs have started to come into range, but there is still significant uncertainty with timing of these systems. Given the time of year, will not rule out a strong thunderstorm or two though this period, but there are currently too many unknowns to highlight any severe weather threat at this time. By Sunday, high pressure will build to the west, keeping subtle northerly to northwesterly flow through the area. As the high pressure builds through the region into next week, this will allow for oppressive heat and humidity to return to the Mid-South with generally dry conditions. Heat headlines may be needed as early as Saturday across portions of the Delta, expanding across much of the Mid-South by Sunday and into early next week. Both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlooks favor above normal temperatures, so the oppressive heat will likely continue into early August. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 Winds will remain the primary aviation weather impact over the next 24 hours. Post-frontal NNE winds may be occasionally gusty this afternoon at MEM, JBR and MKL. The front will remain in close proximity to TUP, limiting gust potential but providing some focus for isolated SHRA this afternoon. Hourly thunder probabilities at TUP will remain below 10 percent, below PROB30 threshold. An MVFR cloud deck over north MS may edge into MEM after 12Z, after the onset of daytime heating and mixing. At this time, VFR bases appear likely, but an earlier arrival time would increase MEM MVFR chances. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026 No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH values remaining above 40%. While there is a low chance for showers through Thursday, scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return for Friday and Saturday across portions of the Mid- South. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ010-011-020>024. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...PWB