588
FXUS64 KMEG 172313
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
613 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- Temperatures in the 80s are anticipated through Saturday.

- A cold front will pass through the Mid-South Saturday night,
  bringing the threat of strong to severe storms. Damaging wind
  is the primary severe weather threat.

- Temperatures will cool significantly Sunday and into the
  beginning of next week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
  and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

GOES Water Vapor satellite trends and 12Z upper-air analysis
place an upper-level ridge axis from Ontario to the Southeast
United States. A subtle, but weak shortwave trough on the backside
of the ridge is moving through Arkansas. This is producing some
high clouds across the Mid-South this morning. Temperatures as of
11 AM CDT range from the low to upper 70s.

The aforementioned ridge will bring a continuation of rain-free
weather to the Mid-South into Saturday morning. Highs this
afternoon are expected to rise into the lower to middle 80s.
Short-term models continue to indicate an upper-level trough and
associated cold front moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley
Saturday evening. Kinematics still look good with this system
along with fairly decent mid-level height falls. However, the main
question and potential limiting factor for severe weather is how
much instability will be realized across the Mid-South as any
activity is expected to arrive mainly after sunset. Latest HREF
data indicates surface-based CAPE values may average at best
around 500 J/kg, then diminishing into the evening. Damaging
winds will be the main threat if any storms can reach severe
limits. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates will mitigate the
overall large hail threat.

Much cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front on
Sunday with highs in the 60s for Sunday and in the 70s on Monday.
Long term models indicate a mid-level shortwave trough will move
through the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday.
A subsequent reinforcing cold front will move through the Lower
Mississippi Valley during this time. However, no precipitation is
expected with this system as the atmosphere will remain relatively
dry. The next chance for rain may come late next week as a
southern stream shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions through the vast majority of the TAF period. TSRA
along a frontal boundary likely will not approach until after
19/00Z, so the only inclusion so far is for the KMEM TAF.
Otherwise, southerly winds will pick up across the airspace near
sunrise, with speeds upwards of 10 to 15 kts and gusts upwards of
25 kts through the daytime.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Low fire danger is anticipated through the weekend as MinRH values
remain above 30 percent with light 20ft winds. Wetting rain
chances return Saturday night along a cold front. Behind this
boundary, MinRH will drop to around 30 percent.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CMA