Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
930 FXUS64 KMEG 031137 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 637 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly east of the Mississippi River through Thursday. - Hot weather will return for Friday with highs well in the 90s. - A cooler airmass with comfortable temperatures will settle into the region by Saturday, lasting into early next week. High temperatures will likely be in the 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 A weak stationary frontal boundary remains over the region tonight. Dewpoints are in the upper 50s and lower 60s north and west of the front and in the mid and upper 60s to the south and east. Skies are slowly clearing and some patchy fog is likely overnight with lows mostly in the 60s. The weak frontal boundary will remain over the area on Wednesday. Weak upper level disturbances moving through the NW flow aloft will kick off isolated showers and storms mainly south and east of the boundary where instability will be greatest. The boundary will roughly be located along I-40. By Thursday, the weak frontal boundary will dissipate. Upper level energy will move through the OH Valley along with a cold front. This system will skirt the TN River Valley and result in a few storms there, but the main push will be north and east of the Mid-South. That front never gets through the region and southerly winds return on Friday. The airmass pushing into the region on Friday is very warm. 925 mb temps of over 29C will yield highs temps well into the 90s. Fortunately, humidity levels will not be too bad as dewpoints remain in the 60s. A cold front will push through the region Friday night and Saturday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Given the amount of instability and slight uptick in shear would not be surprised to see a few strong to severe storms during this period. Drier and cooler weather is expected by Saturday afternoon continuing into Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday, the east coast upper trough pushes east and another trough is forecast to move through the Southern Plains with rain chances returning though confidence is not high attm. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 TSRA corridor should remain south of UTA through midmorning. There is a slight (less than 20 percent chance) of -SHRA around MEM toward 18Z, around 10 percent chance of TSRA. Neither worth a TEMPO or PROB30 mention at this time. GOES nighttime microphysics imagery showed an area of low stratus over northeast MS. This deck was ground-based, sensed by the TUP ASOS earlier. TUP tower cam showed patchy fog near the north end of the runway at 1130Z. This should burn off shortly. VFR will otherwise prevail today, with patchy fog again possible at MKL and TUP overnight. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 3 2025 Isolated showers and storms will develop south of I-40 this afternoon and near the Tennessee River on Thursday. Total rainfall amounts will be limited and do little to alleviate drought concerns in the very near term. Fuels will continue to dry. Some fire danger concerns will continue though winds will remain generally on the lighter side. There is a chance of wetting rains over at least part of the area Friday night into Saturday morning as a cold front moves through the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...PWB