106
FXUS64 KMEG 241746
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1146 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will remain through today and
  continue into Tuesday. A few storms may become strong to severe
  Tuesday morning and early afternoon.

- Sunny conditions will return by Wednesday. High temperatures
  will generally remain in the 50s, with near to below freezing
  temperatures on Thanksgiving morning.

- There is a 50 to 70% chance that showers will return to the Mid-South
  by the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1008 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Already have some prefrontal shower activity crossing the
Mississippi River. Generally through the rest of the day, we will
continue to see on and off shower activity as the low pressure
system pulls northeastward. The latest CAM guidance does not have
the warm front reaching our area until late in the evening to
near midnight, so think thunderstorm activity will remain fairly
limited until that point.

Into the overnight hours and into tomorrow, the biggest question
will be how far north the warm front makes it and in turn how
quickly the cold front moves through the area. As has been the
trend the past few days, still very little confidence in any
severe activity through the overnight period, with low confidence
in any activity Tuesday morning through the early afternoon. If
the warm front were to reach the TN/MS line and the cold front
lags, then confidence for any severe weather would certainly go
up across northeast MS for that timeframe. This will likely turn
into one of the situations where we will have to watch things
closely as they evolve as the threat is highly conditional on
timing and the warm front placement for our area. If a conducive
environment were to unfold, the main concerns for our area would
be damaging wind gusts. However, with the strengthening LLJ,
can`t rule out a tornado either. As far as total rainfall goes,
still have low confidence in any significant flooding concerns.
We have been dry over the past few days so FFG remains elevated.
Showers through the day should remain light, with higher rainfall
rates likely not occurring until overnight into tomorrow. If
these higher rates begin to linger or train over a particular
area, then an isolated flooding threat could arise. Otherwise,
the area will likely see some beneficial rainfall between 1 to
2 inches. One other point to bring up into the overnight periods
will be our wind speeds. With the proximity of the low and
stratiform precipitation ongoing, a few CAMs have been picking up
on some higher wind speeds and gusts overnight into early Tuesday
morning. If this does play out, would not rule out some strong
(30 to 40 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gusts across north MS and
west TN overnight. While confidence is low, it will be something
to watch as the night progresses.

Cold front will exit the area by Tuesday evening at the latest,
ushering in a much cooler and drier pattern heading into the
Thanksgiving holiday. High temperatures will remain in the 50s on
Wednesday, dipping a bit lower into the 40s and 50s for
Thanksgiving and on Friday. Overnight lows will fall back to near
to below freezing by Thanksgiving morning, so those with any
outdoor plans should prepare for a chilly start. The upper-level
pattern will slowly become zonal heading into the weekend. By
next weekend, there is considerable ensemble spread with the
overall upper-level flow regime west of the area, bearing
generally low confidence in the forecast. The trend is towards a
somewhat more active weather pattern, with showers returning by
the end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Aviation impacts expected at all terminals through the TAF
forecast. A large area of stratiform rain is currently impinging
on the region from the west as of 18z. This shield of
precipitation is forecast to overspread each of the terminals
through this evening with MVFR impacts beginning tonight. Some
thunder is possible, particularly at MEM and TUP.

As the night progresses, CIGs are still expected to drop further
into IFR with lower confidence in lower categories. Simultaneously,
a low-level jet will produce LLWS in excess of 40 knots between
06z and 12z. Rain will still be ongoing at MKL/TUP after 12z,
leaving only MVFR CIGs at JBR/MEM through the end of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1008 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

No fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will move across the area today into
tomorrow, bringing 1" to 2" of precipitation. MinRH values will
fall below 40% by Thanksgiving through Friday, but winds will
remain light.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB