Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
650 FXUS64 KMEG 092331 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Pleasant, below-normal temperatures will continue through Saturday under clear skies. - A significant warming and drying trend will begin early next week as an upper-level ridge builds over the region, with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 80s. - Dry conditions are expected to persist through the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Broad surface high pressure covers much of the eastern CONUS, bringing clear skies and cool temperatures to the Mid-South, with current readings in the mid to upper 60s and moderate northeast winds. Below normal temperatures, especially in the morning, will persist through Saturday as we remain entrenched in upper level northwest flow. The upper level ridge will build in early next week, resulting in several very warm and dry days across the Mid- South. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s, or 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Temperatures may reach 90 degrees, and NBM guidance shows a 15% to 30% probability of this occurring by next Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper level ridge will retrograde west by late next week and allow a deepening trough to push down through the Mississippi Valley. With limited moisture across the region, the GFS and ECMWF are not generating much in the way of QPF. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Intermittent gusts to 15 kts are anticipated over the next few hours, but winds should decrease overnight. Surface high pressure will allow for VFR CIGs through the period. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain low through this weekend, with temperatures slightly below normal, minimum RH values around 40%, and light 20-foot winds. As temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s and RH values dip below 40% next week, fire weather concerns will increase. No rain is forecast for the next seven days, which will contribute to this trend. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...ANS