982
FXUS64 KMEG 142304
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
604 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect across the Mid-South
  through Sunday evening.

- Overnight lows will remain unseasonably warm, preventing
  recovery and creating stress for at-risk populations.

- Heat headlines will likely be needed into next week as upper
  ridging remains over much of the area and hot and humid
  conditions continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A 594 dm upper ridge is situated over the Mid-South this morning
and hot and humid conditions continue. Temperatures are already
hitting the mid 90s in some spots with dewpoints in the lower to
mid 70s. A few more locations will hit triple digits this
afternoon. This ridge will strengthen to 598 dm this weekend as
the heat intensifies over the region. The NBM does show a slight
drop in dewpoints this weekend, which will likely result in
surface temps climbing into the low 100s over more of the area.
As the high heat continues day after day with little to no relief
at night, the heat risk continues to climb. With that in mind, we
have decided to upgrade the entire Mid-South to an Extreme Heat
Warning through Sunday evening. We cannot completely rule out a
diurnal shower or storm through this weekend, though the strength
of the upper ridge will keep almost everyone dry.

Starting early next week, there are some subtle changes that
occur with the upper pattern. The upper ridge starts to weaken a
touch and retrograde a little toward the Southern Plains. A weak
cold front may drop into the northern parts of the Mid-South on
Monday and hang around for a couple of days. This may knock
temperatures down a few degrees across northern areas and the TN
River Valley and also bring a slight chance of showers and storms
into the area.  However, heat headlines will likely still be
needed over a significant part of the Mid-South for much of next
week, along and south of wherever that front ends up stalling.

A more significant cool down may be on tap for later next week
into next weekend as global models are depicting a significant
trough developing over the eastern U.S. and northwesterly upper
flow for the Mid-South. However, there is a large spread in
guidance by next weekend, so confidence is fairly low, and there
are some model solutions that favor upper ridging and heat
hanging on across the Mid-South.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure dominates the
airspace. Southwest winds will remain light outside of gusts at
JBR tomorrow afternoon.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Hot and prolonged dry conditions continue across the region.
Widespread wetting rains are not expected across the Mid-South
through the period. Despite the drying of fuels, critical fire
weather conditions are not anticipated as minimum relative
humidity values are expected to remain above 35 percent with
light south/southwest 20-foot winds.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH