Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
015 FXUS64 KMEG 250445 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 - Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures will persist across the Mid-South through much of the next week. - Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into early next week due to warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and dry vegetation. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Little to no change of note this evening with current temperatures spanning the 50s and 60s under clear skies. An anomalous 592dam ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern across the Mississippi Valley bringing warm afternoons in the mid 70s to lower 80s and chilly mornings in the low 40s to mid 50s. A very dry airmass also remains fixed over much of the southeastern CONUS with current PWAT values around 0.5-0.7", nearing the 25th percentile for October, across the Mid-South. Dry air will mix down Sunday afternoon with decreased dewpoints in the 40s once again. As such, fire weather concerns will exist Sunday. Please continue to adhere to local burn bans, properly dispose of cigarettes and matches, and avoid using equipment that creates sparks. By midweek, southwest flow will begin to build across the Mississippi Valley as troughing from the four corners region begins to push into the upper Midwest. The forecast, however, will see little to no change as a persistent dry airmass remains over the Middle Mississippi Valley. We could see an increase in high level cloud cover especially over our northern counties as embedded shortwaves move over these areas, but no precipitation is expected. Despite upper-level southwest flow building in, fire weather concerns will persist through much of the next week as mixing will likely result in lowered dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s each afternoon. The biggest question is, when will we see rain next. Ensemble members continue to push a pattern change further and further back. Latest LREF guidance is hinting at a deepening trough moving into the Pacific Northwest Friday. This system looks to drive the upper-level pattern across the western CONUS. By Saturday (Halloween), a subtropical jet begins to strengthen over the aforementioned area, pushing moisture further east, and further into our neck of the woods. This may be just enough moisture for us to see some very light showers next weekend, however, chances are only around 20-30%. If precipitation is able to sneak into the Mid-South, appreciable rainfall is not expected. Maybe some good news, the latest CPC 6-10 day outlook does have us leaning above normal for precipitation heading into November. We`ll play the wait and see game for now. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 No changes, VFR. Light southeast winds tonight and tomorrow will trend more easterly late tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1020 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through at least midweek as high pressure remains fixed over the region. A combination of above normal afternoon temperatures, dry fuels, and minimum relative humidity values teetering 40% or less will promote increased fire starts and growth. 20 ft winds will remain light through this period, but aforementioned conditions will overrule light winds. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the entire Mid-South Sunday as minimum relative humidity values range between 25-35% in combination with dry fuels. No wetting rain is forecast over the next 7 days. Overnight fog can`t be ruled out each morning, especially in low- lying areas. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...JDS