968
FXUS64 KMEG 061101
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
601 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect today, with heat indices
  ranging from 100 to 110, and actual high temperatures ranging
  from 98 to 104. A weak frontal boundary will serve as a focus
  for a few thunderstorms over northern Mississippi this
  afternoon.

- For Monday, lower humidity will accompany highs in the mid to
  upper 90s. Those temperatures will continue through Thursday, as
  humidity returns, possibly necessitating a return of a Heat
  Advisory.

- A cold front will bring slight chances of rain late Thursday
  into Friday. Following this frontal passage high temperatures
  may moderate to the lower and mid 90s by next weekend - still
  well above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Summer continues to hang on for the Midsouth, courtesy of a
persistent high amplitude upper level ridge. The Midsouth will
remain under the eastern periphery of this ridge today, which is
centered over the southern plains. Weak northerly flow aloft will
provide modest deep layer shear and will support a cold frontal
passage through the region late this morning through early
evening. With no cold air backing the front, it will have little
to no effect on temperatures, but may drop dewpoints into mid 60s
over northwest TN by mid afternoon. Further south, several CAMs
depict scattered showers and thunderstorms forming near the front
as it passes through a relatively humid airmass over north MS in
the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts can`t be
ruled out, given the inverted-V soundings and DCAPE near
1500 J/kg, as projected by the HRRR.

The upper ridge will expand to the east on Monday, over the dry
post-frontal airmass. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s
will accompany highs in the mid to upper 90s on Monday. Minimum
RH will likely drop below 30 percent on Monday. With drying live
vegetation Monday will present some fire weather concerns.
Fortunately, light winds are expected by Monday afternoon.

Humidity will return Tuesday, as high temperatures prevail around
10 degrees above normal (mid/upper 90s). This pattern will
continue through early Thursday, under a flat upper level ridge.
Heat Advisories may return for the midweek periods. By late
Thursday, a northern branch trough will pass through the Great
Lakes, resulting in modest midlevel height falls over the
Midsouth. Medium range guidance begins to diverge with respect to
the timing of these height falls and an associated cold frontal
passage through the Midsouth. In any case, post-frontal
temperatures would likely remain 3-5 degrees above normal in the
favorable scenario for next weekend. Memphis has not recorded a
below normal high temperature since August 8th.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the eastern airspace
but will remain clear of all terminals this morning. A cold front
moving through this afternoon will introduce isolated
thunderstorm chances to TUP, warranting a PROB30 group.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with a prevailing northerly
wind.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A weak cold front will pass through West Tennessee this afternoon
and serve as a focus for scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over northern Mississippi this afternoon. This
front will have little to no effect on temperatures. Drier air
will lag behind the front and will spread into the Midsouth on
Monday. With highs in the mid to upper 90s, Monday`s minimum
relative humidity will drop to 25 to 35 percent. Humidity will
moderate on Tuesday, with little change on Wednesday.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...DNM