075
FXUS64 KMEG 131112
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
512 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 511 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

- A significant warming trend will persist through Saturday.
  Temperatures will be well above normal with rain-free
  conditions. Gusty south winds are expected Saturday.

- High uncertainty exists regarding the timing and strength of the
  next weather system, resulting in low confidence for rain
  chances and temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

The latest surface analysis places a broad area of high pressure
over much of the Mississippi Valley. Winds have already gone calm
across 90% of the forecast area, with many locations already
seeing dewpoint depressions of 3F or less. Given that many
locations are expected to fall to or below the crossover
temperature (the highest dewpoint from Wednesday afternoon), a
medium to high signal exists for dense fog. There is quite a bit
of uncertainty still as to how widespread the fog will be,
however, it will likely be dense. After close collaboration with
surrounding offices, decided to forgo a dense fog advisory at
this time. Trends will need to be monitored.

The upper level pattern will continue to feature an amplifying
ridge in the western CONUS with a deepening trough off the
eastern seaboard. The Mid-South will remain in dry northwest flow
through late week. This will allow temperatures to climb about
10 degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the
low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

A strong shortwave will move across southern Canada this weekend
and spawn a 988mb surface low over the Great Lakes Region. This
will tighten the pressure gradient across the entire Mississippi
Valley and the Mid-South. NBM probabilities for winds greater
than 20 mph are pinging in the 60-90% range across northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
However, probabilities for 25 mph or greater, or wind advisory
criteria, remain in the 10-20% range. Gusty southerly winds are
expected, and trends will be monitored for any shift in advisory
potential.

A weak cold front will push through the Mid-South early Sunday,
but will not generate any precipitation as PWATs will be below
1 inch. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected behind the
front, but still above average with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

Synoptic models have come into better agreement with the
evolution of a shortwave ejecting into the Plains on Monday. A
surface low will develop across the Central Plains and lift a
warm front through the Mid-South on Tuesday. This will set the
stage for an unsettled pattern across the region through late
next week. Confidence is low to medium regarding the exact timing
and placement of frontal passages. However, a clear signal exists
for the return of warm and wet weather to the Mid-South through
late next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions continue. Winds will generally remain
southeasterly up to around 5 kts, with a subtle shift to southerly
near the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Temperatures will be well above normal through Saturday, with
minimum relative humidity values likely remaining above
35 percent. Transport winds and mixing heights will generally be
low to moderate. However, southerly flow will increase through
Friday and become strong on Saturday.

Overall burning conditions will remain good to moderate. The
potential for wetting rains returns next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CMA