Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
676 FXUS64 KMEG 090516 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1116 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 - A hard freeze (temperatures 28 degrees or less) will impact the Mid-South Monday and Tuesday mornings with blustery conditions making temperatures feel even colder. - Temperatures will return to near normal by mid-week with continued dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 A reinforcing cold front will bring winter-like temperatures to the area with our first hard freeze of the season occurring Sunday night into Monday morning. The incoming polar air mass will bring very cold and very dry conditions to the region to start the work week. Strong CAA advection will overtake the forecast on Sunday resulting in highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Tuesday morning will be more of a radiational cooling setup under clear skies and light winds which will plummet Tuesday morning temperatures into the lower 20s in the eastern portions of the CWA and upper 20s to the west. With the radiational cooling setup, some areas in the east may even flirt with temperatures in the teens Tuesday morning. Additionally, a surface low will create a tight pressure gradient, leading to elevated winds across the region. Blustery conditions will bring apparent temperatures into the low 20s and mid teens on Monday and Tuesday morning. Temperatures will warm slightly on Tuesday, though remaining below normal, as the region moves to the back side of the high- pressure system. Strong return flow will warm us up with highs into the 50s. The return flow is already hinting at some medium to high probabilities (40-70%) of sustained winds above 25 mph and gusts above 40 mph (which is Wind Advisory criteria) for portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and portions northwest Tennessee. Confidence is currently medium that Wind Advisory criteria will be met, as probabilities (40-70%) remain high. Trends will be monitored closely in subsequent forecasts. The potential for a Wind Advisory may be the most exciting thing of this forecast cycle as temperatures return to above normal with no precipitation chances until next weekend at the earliest. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 Gusty NW winds, with a few gusts possibly reaching 30 knots at times, will affect all sites behind a passing cold front before diminishing late in the TAF period. A brief period of MVFR strato- cu is expected Sunday morning, scattering out to VFR by late afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025 A cold front will bring extremely dry air into the Mid-South. Monday and Tuesday afternoons look the driest by far with MinRHs falling below 40% both days with elevated winds leading to adverse fire weather conditions. RH values will begin to rise above 40% as southerly flow returns, but dry conditions will continue. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...AC3