412
FXUS64 KMEG 121117
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
617 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue with
  additional rain chances through this afternoon. Expect only
  minor relief from the heat and drought conditions.

- Hot and dry weather returns Sunday into next week as high
  pressure builds over the region. Heat Advisories may be needed
  Sunday into early next week for portions of the Mid-South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Scattered thunderstorms from earlier this evening have all but
dissipated in the absence of diurnal surface heating. Some storms
may continue to develop within a zone of ascent ahead of a
seasonably strong upper low as it passes through the region and
along draped outflow over northwest MS. This additional activity
is expected to remain sub-severe as instability steadily
decreases along with bulk shear values below 30 knots. Otherwise,
cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s will settle in tonight,
but dewpoints in just above 70 F will keep lows out of the 60s.
However, this evening`s rains have cooled off much of the region
and added moisture to the low-levels, enough to where areas of
fog may develop through Saturday morning depending on how much
mid-level cloud cover develops. Mid-level water vapor imagery
from this evening shows an area of decent subsidence that should
keep clouds from developing from 850 mb upward, which would lean
towards a decent fog threat in low-lying areas, particularly
across northern MS and West TN.

No synoptic front will pass through tonight, meaning that much of
the surface moisture that was partly responsible for Friday`s
storms will remain. Additionally, the upper trough may still be
over portions of northeast MS and West TN through the early
afternoon hours that would lead to a reinvigoration of
convection. Any storms Saturday are expected to be relatively
isolated and are also not forecast to pose much of a severe
threat; mainly gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Alongside
the isolated rain, highs will still manage to reach up into the
middle 90s with heat indices likely climbing above 100 F for the
majority of the region.

The upper trough will have exited the region well in advance of
Sunday morning with the upper ridge coming back to take its place
as 594+ dm heights make their return. In response, surface
temperatures will climb further, making their way into the upper
90s and perhaps above 100 F Sunday afternoon. Models show that
moisture will mix out drastically during the daytime hours,
leading to heat index values above 100 F, but not above 105 F for
most areas, which is our threshold for heat headlines. Some
locations throughout the MS River Delta in eastern AR and
northwest MS may still need Heat Advisories into next week.
Regardless of the presence of a Heat Advisory, conditions will
still be humid and hot with little reprieve expected.
Unfortunately, this forecast is likely to stretch beyond Sunday
and looks to last through much of next week with similar
conditions each day. A trend has been emerging within ensembles
that point to a gradual, possibly seasonal, weakening of the
ridge by the end of next week, but run-to-run variability remains
high. So, it`s probably not best to get our hopes up just yet
that the heat will finally retreat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

An upper-level low will move across the region today resulting in
the development of additional showers and thunderstorms mainly
over north MS, thus warranting a PROB30 group at TUP this
afternoon. Patchy dense fog producing localized LIFR conditions
at JBR, and IFR conditions MKL and TUP are expected to improve
over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail for most of the period. Light winds will
become northwest 5-8 kts by afternoon, then become light this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue producing wetting rains through Saturday afternoon,
primarily across portions of West TN and northern MS. Rains from
the past 24 hours will keep minimum relative humidity values
above 40% throughout the region through Sunday afternoon, which
alongside weak 20 foot winds, will keep fire danger at a minimum.
Hot and precipitation-free conditions will arrive by Sunday and
are expected to remain through the end of the forecast period.
Into early next week, minimum relative humidity values will begin
to drop below 40% as the area dries out, but a continuation of
light 20 foot winds and increased soil moisture from recent rains
will continue to keep fire danger at a minimum.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC