300
FXUS64 KMEG 021152
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
552 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 550 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Patchy black ice is expected on roadways and bridges, especially
  on overpasses, through 12 PM today due to freezing temperatures.
  Slow down, increase distance, and allow extra time for travel
  this morning.

- Dry conditions will resume by the middle of the day on Tuesday,
  with precipitation chances returning by Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wintry weather ended across the region over the past couple of
hours and temperatures along and north of I-40 have fallen to or
below freezing. Due to the amount of residual water on roadways,
as seen from traffic cameras on local highways and interstates,
patchy black ice will continue to be a threat.

Mainly overcast skies can be expected this morning into late
afternoon, as the main upper level low pressure swings through
the region. Surface temperatures are not expected to warm much
today with readings mainly in the low to mid 30s. An SPS was
issued through 12 PM today, highlighting the threat of patchy
black ice especially on bridges and overpasses. The rest of the
forecast remains on track.

AC3

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A chilly overnight continues with mixed precipitation types
depending where you are across the Mid-South. Locations across
northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, and far northwest TN have already
seen rain transition to a wintry mix over the past few hours,
with freezing rain being the most common precipitation type. The
00Z sounding from Little Rock does show a pretty deep warm nose
from earlier this evening. Latest mesoanalysis does suggest that
this continues to slowly erode, which will help some locations
transition from freezing rain to sleet. Our 850 mb freezing line
continues to push into the far northwest corner of our area, so
expect those locations to continue to transition to snow with any
lingering moisture. Right now the entire column of below freezing
temperatures does appear to extend to the Mississippi River, so a
transition to snow across northeast AR, the MO Bootheel, and far
northwest TN appears imminent. As far as other locations across
the Mid-South go, locations south of I-40 will continue to see a
very cold rain, with only a brief window of a wintry mix likely
around midnight. Models continue to depict things drying out
areawide pretty rapidly after midnight, with the bulk of any
precipitation exiting before sunrise. In terms of impacts through
the overnight hours into tomorrow morning, these will likely be
mostly confined to bridges and overpasses that would be the most
susceptible to icing. If some additional issues were to arise, it
would likely be in the far northwest corner of the area and along
the TN/KY stateline. Total ice accumulation will likely remain
below a tenth of an inch, with total snow amounts remaining below
half an inch.

Any lingering precipitation will likely move out by sunrise on
Tuesday, with chilly temperatures lingering throughout the day.
High temperatures will likely remain in the 30s across much of
the area and only reach the 40s across northeast MS and our
southern tier of counties. If there is any lingering moisture on
surfaces on Tuesday, winds are expected to remain elevated enough
to help dry things out. This would likely eliminate any re-
freezing Tuesday night. A subtle high pressure will begin to
develop on Wednesday, with WAA returning to the area. This will
allow temperatures to warm back into the 40s north and low 50s
south. This brief warmer period will be short lived as things
turn cooler again into Thursday with rain chances slowly
increasing to end the week as a weak shortwave passes through the
region. Guidance does want to clip our area with some
precipitation on Friday, but these chances have continued to
decrease from previous model runs, keeping parts of the Mid-South
dry. The area should see another brief dry spell behind this
shortwave, with eyes turning to a developing upper- level trough
off the Rockies. Models have slowed down the progression of this
overall pattern, so have pretty low confidence in the ultimate
pattern as we progress through the weekend. Models do agree that
below-normal temperatures are likely here to stay for the
foreseeable future, with high temperatures in the 40s to 50s to
end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Precipitation has come to an end across the airspace leaving IFR
and MVFR ceilings blanketing the area. A brief swath of clearing
is depicted on satellite and should last for about an hour before
filling in once again at all terminals. Dry air post frontal
should continue to filter to the surface and allow decks to
scatter out by late afternoon. VFR is expected to prevail after
03Z as confidence increases with subsidence.

DNM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

No major fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
minRH values remaining above 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...DNM