859
FXUS64 KMEG 161705
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1105 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Above-normal temperatures will continue through the week.

- Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and
  thunderstorms, will return this week. Total rainfall amounts
  remain uncertain.

- Cooler conditions are anticipated next weekend with highs in
  the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts a cold front just south of
Memphis, TN. The frontal passage is bringing a shot of dry air,
lowering dewpoints into the 30s and 40s. Expect plentiful
sunshine with low humidity behind this front with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Enjoy the weather today because an
unsettled weather pattern will unfold this week.

A shortwave will move across the Central Plains on Monday
increasing elevated moisture across the Mid-South. While elevated
moisture is expected, the subsidence from today`s frontal passage
will make it difficult to effectively saturate the environment as
a whole. CAM model soundings have very large dewpoint depressions
(>30F). Due to the dry air, lowered PoPs to not exceed 25%
through Tuesday evening. Better surface moisture will be
available Tuesday night with the passage of a surface warm front,
increasing rain chances for Wednesday.

The best rain chances will reside in the latter half of the week
ahead of a deep, longwave trough and attendant cold front. The
evolution of this system has changed with every model run, which
leaves the question about severe weather and heavy rainfall
potential still uncertain. The most apparent changes from
deterministic guidance include the Canadian and Euro are more
progressive and have the front sweeping through the area Thursday
night into Friday morning. The GFS is displaying a more neutral
orientation and much slower crossing time of Friday evening into
Saturday morning. If a more neutral orientation is taken on,
heavy rainfall from training storms will threaten. Due to these
discrepancies in long term guidance, rainfall totals remain
uncertain. One thing that is consistent amongst the models is the
air mass post frontal. The air mass will result in cooler
temperatures-still above normal, but a much smaller departure
from normal. The arrival of cooler temperatures will be dependent
on FROPA timing, but the air should be in place by next weekend.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR. No significant changes to the TAFS with this forecast issuance.
Winds will continue to gradually veer over the next 24-30 hours.
Mid level clouds may approach JBR around 17/18Z and MEM by 17/24Z.
A dry airmass should prevent any precipitation from reaching the
ground through 12/24Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1105 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A cold front moving across the area is bringing a very dry air
mass to the region. The dry air is resulting in RH values in the
mid 20% to mid 30% range. Elevated 20ft winds should keep fire
danger at bay for Sunday.  A wet and unsettled pattern will
unfold this week. Precipitation chances remain low to medium
through midweek and wetting rain chances will increase by the end
of the week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS