174
FXUS64 KMEG 051150
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
550 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- Patchy black ice will be possible through sunrise, mostly in
  areas along the I-40 corridor that are still wet from Thursday`s
  rainfall. Roads that look wet may actually be icy.

- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with
  highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

- Other than a slight chance (15 to 20 percent) of rain on
  Sunday, dry and cold conditions prevail until at least midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The precip from the shortwave that moved through early Thursday
afternoon has largely come to a close, clearing out much faster
than guidance had anticipated. What we are left with around
midnight is a few light returns on the radar, which is more of a
fine mist than any falling precipitation. This does raise a
little bit of a concern about freezing fog overnight since
temperatures are already right around freezing and will continue
to fall overnight. On that same note, a Special Weather Statement
has been issued for patchy black ice for much of the area through
sunrise Friday. Several areas along the I-40 corridor still have
water on the ground from Thursday`s rainfall, which has the
potential to flash freeze into slick spots. This will mainly
impact bridges and overpasses, especially in rural areas. This
black ice threat should be over by mid morning at the latest;
temperatures will rise back above freezing and roads will have
plenty of time to dry up throughout the day.

With the exception of some light showers (15-20% chance) on
Sunday associated with a messy surface pattern, chilly and dry
conditions will prevail through the beginning of next week. We`re
locked into a pattern that is leaning below normal (40% chance)
for at least the next week due to persistent northwest flow
aloft. For early December, "below normal" means lows generally
around freezing and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. With
little to no moisture upstream, it`s looking like the forecast
will remain predominantly dry through midweek. Another weak
frontal passage may encourage another round of showers on
Wednesday, but temperatures will be far enough above freezing to
preclude any winter impacts.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

IFR and MVFR CIGs are likely to persist at MEM, MKL, and TUP
through at least this afternoon. The exception will be JBR, where
VFR CIGs will persist through late afternoon as it remains in a
cooler and drier air mass.

A surface pressure trough will move into the region from the NW
late tonight and push a low stratus deck into the region. There
is a 50 to 70% chance of LIFR and VLIFR CIGs developing overnight
at MEM and MKL, with 30 to 40% chances for Additionally, hi-res
guidance is predicting a 30 to 50% of dense fog developing near
the end of the period at all sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Other than some sporadic showers on
Sunday, chilly and mostly dry conditions prevail through midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...AC3