586
FXUS64 KMEG 162329
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  end of the work week. Severe weather chances will remain limited
  mainly during the daytime hours each day with gusty winds and
  localized heavy rainfall as the main threats.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late week, with heat
  indices above 100 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

GOES Water Vapor satellite trends still shows a mid-level trough
axis present across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys this
afternoon. GOES Precipitable water analysis indicates values
remaining nearly steady around 2 inches (99th percentile) for
mid-June. Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary
boundary located from the Ohio River Valley back through southern
Missouri and into eastern Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms are
more plentiful this afternoon, especially east of the Mississippi
River where deeper low-level moisture is located and convective
temperatures were reached over the past 2-3 hours. Temperatures as
of 2 PM CDT are mainly in the 80s where convective activity has
not occurred thus far.

Short-term models and CAMs indicate the best convective coverage
will be late this afternoon during peak heating. Strong
instability combined with little if any shear, steep low-level
lapse rates, and very high precipitable water values will favor
the potential for a few strong to perhaps isolated severe
summer pulse-type thunderstorms through early evening, especially
across north Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts and localized heavy
rainfall will remain the main threats. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will likely decrease with the loss of peak heating later
this evening into early Tuesday morning. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop on Tuesday mostly during
afternoon peak heating. This trough axis is expected to lift out
of the region by Tuesday night.

Mid-range models indicate another mid-level trough will move
through the Middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This will result in a weak cold front dropping into
portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday
night into Thursday. Strong instability combined with sufficient
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may result in some strong to
severe thunderstorms mainly late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening northwest of I-40. Damaging winds, large hail,
and localized heavy rainfall are the main threats.

An upper-level ridge is expected to build into the region by this
weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain minimal
during peak heating. Heat headlines may become necessary for
portions of the area Friday and Saturday as a combination of high
surface dewpoints and temperatures rising into the lower to middle
90s produce heat index values approaching 105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Another beefy set of TAFS this afternoon, with no real confidence
on the timing of the onset or end of various periods of showers
and thunderstorms. In general we should see an increase in
precipitation coverage after 03z at MKL and MEM, with periods of
showers and thunderstorms through mid afternoon tomorrow.
Confidence is higher that IFR cigs will overspread the airspace
late tonight and continue through mid-morning. Hopefully this will
help to limit redevelopment of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
However, I did maintain VCTS and VCSH through the afternoon hours.
Winds will remain west to SE 6-10kts. JBR and MEM look to have
the best chance of a return to VFR conditions late tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Light winds and high humidity will persist through mid-week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually decrease after
mid-week. Hot and humid conditions will persist into the weekend
with temperatures rising into the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM