208
FXUS64 KMEG 211116
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
616 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11AM to 8PM Friday for
  portions of east Arkansas and north Mississippi. Heat index
  values will peak at 107 degrees.

- A transition to drier and cooler conditions is expected this
  weekend. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 80s to mid
  90s.

- Northwest flow aloft will keep rain chances in the forecast each
  day next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to exit the Mid-South this
evening as a cold front slowly sinks into the region. A few of
the CAMs depict redevelopment along this boundary overnight.
However, increasing CIN and a worked over atmosphere will
discourage any additional severe weather concerns. Instead,
expect a few rumbles of thunder overnight with a potential for
localized heavy rainfall.

The aforementioned front will continue its slow descent on
Friday. Unfortunately, it won`t move quick enough to keep heat
headlines entirely out of our area. As such, a Heat Advisory is
in effect from 11AM to 8PM for portions of north Mississippi.
Heat indices up to 107 degrees are anticipated. This weekend,
temperatures will be much more bearable as drier and cooler air
settles. By Sunday, highs will vary from the upper 80s near
Kentucky to the mid 90s in north Mississippi. Heat headlines are
not anticipated due to lower dewpoints.

Next week, both the GFS and ECMWF keep the Mid-South in northwest
flow aloft as a strong upper level ridge centers over the Desert
Southwest. Disturbances embedded within the outer periphery of
this ridge will keep rain chances in the forecast almost daily.
While the LREF paints a less than 20 percent chance of
overlapping severe weather ingredients, summertime temperatures
and persistent northwest flow cannot be ignored. This regime can
produce mesoscale convective systems, posing a damaging wind
threat. For now, the severe threat is low but this may change as
we get closer to next week. Outside of rain chances, feels-like
temperatures will remain below heat headline criteria with
afternoon highs in the 90s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A quiet period is expected with mainly VFR conditions and light
N/NW winds. There is a good chance of patchy light fog at MKL and
TUP early Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A few areas of patchy fog cannot be ruled out over north
Mississippi tonight. Otherwise, expect increased moisture values
and wetting rain chances to keep fire weather concerns to a
minimum.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ049-058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ007-010-011-020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SJM