Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
602 FXUS64 KMEG 281821 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 121 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Scattered showers are expected to continue mainly across southeastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi through Friday morning, bringing beneficial rain to some drought-stricken areas. - The upcoming holiday weekend will be mostly dry and pleasant with comfortable temperatures and humidity. - Another shot of cooler air is on track for late next week, which will bring more widespread rain chances and a return to below- normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A relatively cool and cloudy day is ongoing, driven by a broad trough over the eastern U.S. Temperatures range from the lower to upper 70s with a few showers across SE Arkansas and NW Mississippi. The latest GOES Water Vapor Imagery reveals a broad trough over the eastern half of the CONUS with a weakening ridge over the western half. Within the broad trough, a well-defined shortwave is rotating over NE Oklahoma with a complex of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving through Arkansas and north central Mississippi. The aforementioned shortwave will continue along a southeast track through the Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday morning. This will keep a steady stream of scattered to numerous showers mainly SW of a line from Jonesboro, AR to Memphis, TN to Tupelo, MS. Rainfall totals will range from 0.5 inches to around 1 inch. Isolated amounts to 2 inches will occur over extreme SE Arkansas and NW Mississippi through Friday morning, where there is a 40-60 % chance of 2 inches. While a majority of the Mid- South is experiencing D0 and D1 drought conditions, most areas will see limited relief, with accumulations of only up to a half inch. There is some good news, however, as the worst drought- stricken area (D2) will receive around one inch or more. Mainly dry conditions will occur for the Holiday weekend, as shortwave ridging occurs downstream of a deepening lee side trough near the Rockies. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s each day with lows in the 60s. The main trough will expand further west early next week and allow a few weak shortwaves to translate through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will introduce low chances (20% or less) for showers and thunderstorms each day through midweek. A deep upper low will descend south out of Ontario, Canada and into the Mississippi Valley by late next week. This system will help push a cold front through the Mid-South. The degree of how deep and cold this upper low will be is still not resolved by the ensemble guidance. While the models continue to work out the details, this system will deliver yet another shot of cool Canadian air to the region, continuing our `False Fall` pattern. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 At 18Z, SHRA/TSRA was occurring along and north of a stationary front extending from central AR, southeast to central MS. TSRA potential should remain in close proximity to this boundary, as shown in the TCF. Further north, MEM may see -SHRA mid/late afternoon, associated with the passage of an upper level jetstream speed max. SHRA should exit the TAF sites by early evening, but continue into the overnight for areas south of TUP. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Wetting rain chances will be confined to portions of southeast Arkansas and north Mississippi through Friday afternoon. Elsewhere will remain dry. Dry conditions will return to the entire Mid-South this weekend. Minimum relative humidities will fall into the 30 percent range each day across the majority of west Tennessee and northeast Arkansas through early next week. Another cold front will move through late next week and could bring some beneficial rainfall to the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...PWB