198
FXUS64 KMEG 141740
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  Thursday. The chances for severe thunderstorms will remain
  limited, but strong winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
  possible each day, particularly during the daytime hours.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late next week, with heat
  indices of 100 to 105 expected by next Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper low
centered near St. Louis, with a trough axis extending to the
Arklatex. 00Z regional upper air soundings showed PWAT values
have decreased to 1.7 inches, as drier midlevel air had entrained
into the upper trough. Though reduced, these PWAT values are near
the 75th climatological percentile and are more than adequate for
flash flooding. 00Z HRRR depicts the MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg from
east central AR through north MS late this afternoon where
greatest storm coverage is expected. Areas outside of north MS may
see a break from storms tonight, as the boundary layer stabilizes
and weak midlevel shortwave ridging builds in from the north.

A weak amplitude upper level trough will remain over the lower MS
River Valley Sunday through Tuesday, as PWAT increases to over 2
inches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue, with
flash flooding and strong winds possible during the daylight
hours.

The western U.S. upper ridge/heat dome that was expected to
arrive midweek will be delayed by a progressive upper level
trough lifting through the Great Plains and Midwest. An
associated cold front will sag into the Midsouth late Wednesday
night into Thursday, providing a focus for thunderstorm
development. Wednesday afternoon will still likely be hot, with
prefrontal moisture driving heat indices the upper 90s.

Following Thursday`s storms, the front will wash out on Friday as
a 594 dam 500mb ridge over the southern plains expands eastward.
By Saturday, global model consensus shows the upper ridge amplifying
over the lower and middle MS River Valley, with 500 mb heights
reaching 595 dam. Mid 90s high temps are forecast for Saturday
along with mid 70s dewpoints. This will likely drive heat indices
over 100 over much of the Midsouth.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

An upper low has lead to a largely persistence forecast. Sporadic
showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue affecting
terminals through the entire TAF period. Intermittent drops to
MVFR conditions will remain plausible with the movement of
convection. Overnight, showers look to briefly wane as fog
develops over the Mid-South, amids already saturated soils and
calm winds and MVFR conditions prevail. Fog should lift shortly
after sunrise as ceilings improve to VFR. Southwest winds will
remain gusty through this afternoon before going light around
sunset.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High humidity and light winds will prevail through the middle of
next week. Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each
day. Hot and humid conditions are forecast for late next week,
along with very light winds.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH