Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
560 FXUS64 KMEG 240452 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1152 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Monday, mainly for areas in the Mississippi Delta - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday. - Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected across the Mid-South for most of the week, but extreme heat is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 A 596 dam ridge remains parked over the Desert Southwest, placing the Mid-South in northwest flow aloft. Guidance continues to bring a shortwave out of the Rockies today, becoming embedded within the outer periphery of the ridge. This disturbance will increase shower and thunderstorm chances within the Mississippi Delta. There is potential for associated convection to remain west of the forecast area due to dry air aloft and lower dewpoints. If precipitation does occur in the Delta, amounts will be negligible. As for afternoon highs, the NBM continues to show a 7 degree spread amongst the 25th and 75th percentiles. This is likely due to issues in modeling cloud cover associated with the aforementioned precipitation. Regardless, afternoon highs will be much cooler than recent days as temperatures remain in the upper 80s to low 90s. As for Tuesday, lingering showers and storms cannot be ruled out through mid-morning but the latter half of the day should remain dry. Additional disturbances will eject out of the Rockies midweek into the weekend. This will keep daily rain chances in the forecast. The greatest rainfall potential will be Wednesday into Thursday as a warm front lifts north and a cold front approaches from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Confidence in severe weather potential is low at this time, but given persistent northwest flow aloft and forecast SBCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. Details will become clearer as we move closer to midweek. Beyond Thursday`s frontal passage, conditions will dry out for the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, guidance brings hot and humid conditions back in the forecast with heat indices reaching headline criteria by Saturday. Until then, the probability of reaching 105 + heat index values is less than 20 percent. ANS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Scattered -SRHA will move southeast from southern MO overnight, mainly affecting JBR to MEM toward sunrise. This precip will fall from high-based clouds near FL100, overlying a relatively dry sub- cloud layer. Impacts should be minimal. 00Z HREF remains consistent with earlier runs in showing the main corridor of TSRA extending from central AR into the Arklamiss Tuesday morning. VFR will prevail Monday afternoon, behind the exited -SHRA. A repeat of -SHRA will be possible early Tuesday morning, though the signal is not particularly strong in current guidance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Fog is not anticipated Monday morning due to advancing cloud cover and elevated surface winds. The upcoming week will feature minimum relative humidity values in excess of 45 percent and daily wetting rain chances. As such, fire weather concerns are at a minimum. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ANS