Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
528 FXUS64 KMEG 061124 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Rain chances return to the forecast today and will last into Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding north of I-40 tonight and early Tuesday morning. - A cold front will pass Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures into next weekend. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to the low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Clouds are beginning to increase across the area this evening. Temps are mild and dewpoints continue to creep up under weak southeast surface flow. The dry stretch that we have been experiencing across the Mid-South will be coming to an end shortly. A weak, yet moist, upper level system along the Gulf Coast is beginning to lift north this evening. Showers are pushing north from the Gulf Coast toward the Mid-South. Moisture will continue to surge overnight with PWs reaching 2 inches by early Monday morning. This system will result in numerous to widespread showers across the Mid-South on Monday. Instability will be marginal with MUCAPEs ranging from 250-750 J/kg which will support a few thunderstorms. The heavy rain threat looks to increase Monday night into Tuesday morning. A weak surface low pressure will move north through the Lower MS Valley and interact with an approaching cold front being pushed SE by a potent upper trough moving through the Great Lakes. An axis of locally heavy rain with will likely set up across eastern AR, the MO Bootheel and West TN. This area will have the best combination of lift, instability and moisture with PWs exceeding the 97.5th percentile. While rainfall amounts are expected to average 1-2 inches, isolated amounts of greater than 2 inches are likely where training storms occur. This will create a localized flash flooding threat. By Tuesday afternoon the front will start moving across the region. The instability ticks up on Tuesday, especially east of the MS River, so expect more showers and thunderstorms as the front pushes southeast. 0-6 km wind shear does increase a bit on Tuesday so will have watch whether a marginal severe storm threat develops. Precipitation chances will taper off Tuesday night. Cool high pressure will settle across the area Wednesday through Friday and continue into the weekend. Temps will be cooler with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows in the 50s. Highs will gradually warm into the lower 80s during the weekend. Not seeing much in the way of significant precipitation into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 An upper level disturbance will bring deteriorating conditions across the airspace for the next 24 hours. While a few light returns are evident on radar, surface observations do not yet report rain reaching the surface. Confidence in thunderstorms is low. Heavy rainfall is the primary concern, though a VCTS is maintained for MEM and JBR due to the uncertain track of the low. Rain chances will be intermittent throughout the day, with persistent MVFR cigs likely. Guidance is already hitting hard at IFR and signaling LIFR cigs in about 24 hours from now. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Wetting rains will keep fire concerns low through the middle of the week with anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of rainfall expected across much of the region with the potential for locally higher rainfall totals. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...DNM