852
FXUS64 KMEG 140333
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1033 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect
  through Sunday evening across the Mid-South.

- Warm overnight lows will prevent overnight recovery and stress
  at risk populations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue as the Mid-South is trapped
under a 594 dam ridge as of Thursday evening. The ridge will
continue to retrograde into Friday for our hottest day of the
week thus far with air temperatures in the upper 90s to lower
100s. Shear profiles remain lackluster under this ridge, so
single cell showers and thunderstorms could occur Friday
afternoon within the diurnal cumulus field. However, this will
not aid in much relief from the heat. Storms throughout this
period are not likely to threaten severe weather.

This pattern is anticipated to continue throughout the weekend
with an Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory in effect through
8 PM Sunday. By Sunday evening, return flow finally eases and a
more zonal to northwest flow regime will emerge. This will knock
temperatures down a few degrees, but more importantly, filter in
slightly drier air reducing heat index values.

Despite the northwest flow, probabilities from the NBM are nil
for any mentionable rainfall through the forecast period, which
could lead to rapid onset drought conditions. To increase
confidence on the possibility of rapid onset drought, long term
guidance favors another ridge sliding east late next week with
the return of southerly flow. Heat headlines are uncertain for
early into the work week, but could very easily make another
appearance late next week if these trends continue. For now,
continue to practice heat safety and prepare for another hot
week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 30 hours.
Diurnal Cu development is anticipated tomorrow afternoon with
elevated southerly flow, with some gusts at JBR and MEM. A few
showers and thunderstorms could develop within the Cu deck but
confidence was too low to include at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Hot and prolonged dry conditions continue across the region. No
wetting rain is expected across our fire weather zones through
the period. Despite the drying of fuels, critical fire weather
conditions are not anticipated as minimum relative humidity
values are expected to remain above 30% with light
south/southwest 20-ft winds.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ007-010-011-
     020.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>006-008-009-
     012>017-021>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA