Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 160822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
322 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

A classic split-flow synoptic pattern is in place across the CONUS
this morning. A deep trough is slowly digging over the West Coast
with quasi-zonal flow aloft over the east. The flow aloft is a bit
convoluted across the central U.S. with widespread convection
extending from the Rio Grande into the Central Plains. This
activity is associated with a negatively tilted shortwave trough
rotating around the outer periphery of the larger trough to the
west. Downstream of this wave (including the Lower MS Valley), we
see an area of shortwave ridging aloft. This ridge will shift
east for a few days and allow the trough to our west to influence
the weather across the Mid-South early this week.

A quasi-stationary front lies across the Mid-South this morning,
just north of Interstate 40. A few showers continue north of this
boundary with otherwise dry conditions across the CWA. This
boundary is forecast to lift north this morning, likely settling
near or just north of the KY border. There will be slightly more
instability than we have seen this afternoon so a few showers and
thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this front. That
said, most of the CWA will remain warm and dry. Temperatures this
afternoon are forecast to top out in the lower 80s for most areas.
After a dry evening, a few showers will be possible overnight,
mainly west of the MS River as the shortwave currently affecting
the Southern Plains begins to influence the Mid-South.

Rain chances for Monday and beyond have been trending downward the
past few cycles and this is due to the influence of the building
ridge over the eastern CONUS. Global ensemble guidance is showing
good agreement that an anomalous ridge will build over the
southern Appalachians this week, limiting rain chances and warming
temperatures. As for Monday, we still expect that rain will affect
portions of the Mid-South, but QPF doesn`t look quite is high as
it once did. The greatest rain chances will be during the
afternoon and evening hours with the probability for rainfall
amounts exceeding 1" during a 24 hour period remaining on the low

PoPs were generally capped at 20-30% for the mid to late week
portion of the forecast period as a strong ridge builds over the
eastern CONUS. We`ll likely be mostly dry by the weekend, so only
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms was retained only
for areas west along/west of the MS River. This ridge will keep
shortwave energy to our west and warmer temperatures aloft will
limit instability. Temperatures will likely continue a warming
trend through the week with highs pushing 90F in some areas by
the weekend. I suppose June is just around the corner so we had
better get used to it!



/06z TAFs/

A few light showers are passing through the northern portions of
the forecast area. Have added VCSH to KJBR for a few hours.
Showers are dying as they move through so did not add to other
site tonight. Outside of these few showers, expect VFR conditions
to prevail through the TAF period.




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