Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 260244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
944 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022


A deep upper low is situated over northern OK this evening and
will slowly track ENE into SW MO by Thursday morning. Convection
developing along am approaching cold front in Arkansas will sweep
through the Mid-South overnight. MLCAPES of 500-1000 J/KG and
0-6km bulk shear values around 40 kts could support a few strong
to severe storms overnight with damaging winds as the primary
threat. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible overnight and some
spots could pick up over an inch of rain by morning.

Forecast is in good shape with no changes needed attm.



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022/

Unsettled weather pattern for the next couple of days as an upper
low tracks just north of the Mid-South. The upper low will
finally move out of the Mid-South Friday evening. So the weekend
should be dry as an upper high moves into the area. The upper high
along with a surface high will dominate the weather for the
weekend and the beginning of next week.

Rain will be intermittent through Thursday night, however, some
areas in West Tennessee will still see a chance for rain on
Friday. The clouds will remain across most of the Mid-South
through Friday, this will keep the temperatures below normal.
Temperatures over the weekend will increase to near or slightly
above normal. By Memorial Day temperatures will be above normal,
with highs around 90.

Weather will be dry from Saturday through at least the middle of
next week.


/00z TAFs/

Still a few lingering showers near the TN River and across North
MS this evening. Expecting a lull in activity for a few hours this
evening before more on and off showers overnight. We`ll get
another brief lull in activity Thursday morning. Cigs are
currently VFR though MVFR cigs will be possible after 06z for a
few hours. S/SSW winds will remain elevated and will veer to the
SW by the Thursday afternoon with gusts nearing 20-24kts.




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