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000
FXUS64 KMEG 050227
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
927 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

A few showers remain over portions of eastern Arkansas this
evening and should be gone in the next hour or so. Temperatures
across the Mid-South are in the 70s to lower 80s. After the
remaining showers die off, dry weather will continue through the
overnight hours with low temperatures Monday morning mainly in
the 60s. Will update forecast to remove any evening wording.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

An Air Quality Alert for unhealthy levels of ozone is in effect
for the Memphis metro (Shelby, DeSoto, & Crittenden Counties)
through sunset today. Hot temperatures and isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will prevail
through mid week. A back door cold front will drop temperatures
back into then 80s later in the week with diminishing chances for
rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

A concern in the short term is the Air Quality Alert for
unhealthy levels of ozone through sunset this evening. In addition,
isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through sunset.
SBCAPES around 2000 J/KG near the TN River will support gusty
winds, small hail and brief heavy rain. An isolated severe storm,
due to a microburst, cannot be ruled out as DCAPE is running over
1200 J/KG due to dry air in the boundary layer.

A general Omega block will prevail across the CONUS for the next
7 days with each feature waxing and waning in strength. Upper lows
will prevail over the coast with the upper ridge axis over the
center of the CONUS to the west of the Mid-South. A weak back door
cold front over the OH Valley will gradually sink into the Mid-
South early this week. Expect above normal temps to continue while
humidity levels creep up a bit. Isolated to scattered afternoon
and evening showers will develop Monday afternoon. As the weak
cold front sinks south and stalls over the area rain chances will
be limited to mainly east-central AR and north MS Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon. Expect above normal temps both days with
highs in the low 90s.

Toward the end of the week a significant piece of energy will
rotate around the northeast U.S. upper low and through the Great
Lakes. This will send a more significant back door cold front
through the Mid-South on Thursday with chances for showers and
thunderstorms followed by cooler temperatures and lower
humidities through Saturday.

Some weakness in the upper ridge in the center of the country by
the weekend will allow some upper level disturbances to push into
the area from the west/northwest by Sunday with increased chances
for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Isolated convection will continue for a few more hours,
potentially lingering just after sunset. Otherwise, dry conditions
will prevail overnight with a few mid/high clouds and light winds.
Patchy fog will be possible in areas that picked up appreciable
rainfall, but confidence on the spatial extent is very low.
We expect slightly more coverage of diurnal convection Monday
afternoon. While VCSH was included at most TAF sites, a more
targeted VCTS will likely be needed at some point.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ001-007-008-
     011-012-020.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...MJ