550
FXUS64 KMEG 170341
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- Much cooler weather is in store across the Mid-South this
  weekend with below normal temperatures. Overnight lows Saturday
  night into Sunday morning will likely fall into the upper 30s
  and low 40s.

- Periods of gusty winds will continue into Saturday, with
  occasional wind gusts around 25 mph during the afternoon.

- Dry weather is expected to persist over the weekend and into
  next week, with a general warming trend back into the 70s and
  80s by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South
overnight in the wake of today`s cold frontal passage, setting
the stage for a noticeably cooler and drier weekend across the
region. The gusty winds that occurred behind the front will
diminish some overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes. This
influx of cooler, drier air will drop overnight low temperatures
into the low to mid-40s, bringing a crisp start to the weekend.
Below normal temperatures will be common across the Mid-South
Saturday with highs in the 60s as skies gradually clear.

The primary concern in the short term will be the potential for
patchy frost as the center of the surface high settles in
Saturday night into Sunday morning. With clear skies, nearly calm
winds, and a very dry airmass in place, efficient radiational
cooling will allow temperatures to plunge into the upper 30s to
near 40 degrees across the Mid-South. HREF probabilities paint a
40 to 60 percent chance of temperatures falling to less than
37 degrees across parts of West Tennessee, the Missouri,
Bootheel, and eastern Arkansas.

Looking ahead to next week, temperatures will gradually warm. The
work week will begin with high temperatures in the upper 60s to
middle 70s, warming slightly each day with upper 70s to mid/upper
80s by Thursday and Friday. No precipitation is expected over the
next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Post-frontal low clouds will continue to push south into the Mid-
South overnight. Given the latest upstream trends and model
guidance, there is a low to medium confidence that cigs will drop
to MVFR overnight. Targeted the most likely period for lower cigs
at each site with a TEMPO. Otherwise, conditions will be
prevailing VFR. North winds have diminished to around 10 knots
this evening and will become gusty once again Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Despite elevated winds across parts of North Mississippi and
eastern Arkansas, afternoon minimum relative humidity values will
generally stay in the 30 to 40 percent range, falling shy of
elevated fire weather conditions. By Sunday and into next week,
while minimum relative humidity values will remain below 40%,
wind speeds will generally remain light. No appreciable rainfall
is expected over the next seven days.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...TAB
AVIATION...SJM