Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 231137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
637 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018


Updated for 12z TAF discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Mon Jul 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Water Vapor/Infrared Satellite trends
place an upper level low over the Tennessee Valley. This is
producing partly to mostly cloudy skies across areas near the
Tennessee River and mostly clear to clear skies elsewhere. As of 3
AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s.

Short term models indicate the upper level low will remain in
place across the Tennessee Valley today. This will result in
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across the Mid-South,
especially near the Tennessee River. A potential exists for an
isolated rain shower or thunderstorm near the Tennessee River but
suspect most areas should remain rain free today. High
temperatures today will be in the 80s with lows tonight in the
middle 60s to around 70 degrees. This upper level low is expected
to gradually weaken through mid-week. The upper level trough will
remain in place across the Eastern United States into Thursday
with upper level ridging building in across the Lower Mississippi
Valley. This will result in mainly rain free weather through
Thursday. A gradual moderation of temperatures is expected with
highs reaching the lower 90s in some locations again.

Long term models indicate upper level ridging will weaken across
the Lower Mississippi Valley for Friday into the upcoming weekend
in response to another upper level low dropping into the Great
Lakes Region. As a result, mid-level shortwave troughs embedded
within northwest flow aloft will move across the Middle and Lower
Mississippi Valleys bringing shower and thunderstorm chances each
day into the weekend.



12z TAFs

MVFR ceilings have moved into portions of the Midsouth early this
morning as an upper level low spins to our southwest. Expect this
deck to expand in coverage into mid-morning before daytime heating
and subsequent mixing of the boundary layer leads to VFR conditions
for the rest of the day and into tonight. All TAF sites may see
intermittent ceilings, with only enough confidence at MKL to
prevail MVFR cigs for a couple of hours. Winds remain out of the
north generally at 5-10 kts, could see a few gusts at MEM this




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