063
FXUS64 KMEG 141732
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
  through the weekend.

- Gusty winds are expected Saturday, though the probability of
  meeting Wind Advisory criteria is low at 30% or less.

- Wet and unsettled weather, including periods of showers and
  thunderstorms, will return next week, with a potential for 1 to
  3 inches of total rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Thursday)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts a stationary boundary
stretching from north to south in a line from Paris, TN through
Tupelo, MS. This stalled boundary is resulting in a thick, alto
cumulus deck blanketing much of the Mid-South this morning. As of
10 am, this deck is starting to scatter out and will allow
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s, which is in excess
of 10 degrees above normal for mid November. This boundary will
continue its slow moving ascent and push into middle Tennessee by
tonight.

A cold front will begin to traverse southeast, will slightly
tighten the pressure gradient and bring gusty conditions to the
region for Saturday. The previous forecast hinted at the
potential for a Wind Advisory (25 mph sustained and/or 40 mph
gusts), but latest hi-res guidance indicates reduced wind
potential. Winds may be in excess of 20 mph and 25 mph gusts, but
probabilities of exceeding wind advisory criteria for gusty or
sustained winds is 30% or less. The lack of strength associated
with the front and dry airmass in place will result in a
continuation of dry conditions. This cold front is anticipated to
stall out over the region by Monday morning ahead of an
approaching system and an end to our dry weather.

An upper level trough will eject from the Northern Plains on
Monday coinciding with the development of a surface low kicking
off a wet and unsettled pattern. The surface low will lift a warm
front across the area, pushing the aforementioned stalled
boundary out of the area. With the lift from the warm front, and
moisture present, showers and thunderstorms will soak the area.
The latest run of the NBM seems to be heavily influenced by the
euro for the track of the surface low and coverage of showers.
The GFS has better coverage across Arkansas while the euro is a
more northern path with afternoon showers and storms affecting
northern portions of the Mid-South. Based on zonal flow aloft,
the northern track seems to be the most likely solution. Chances
of any thunderstorms becoming severe on Monday and Monday night
is low. There is ample shear with bulk shear near 50 kts from the
LREF, but CAPE and lapse rates remain suppressed.

The aforementioned surface low will try to send its attendant
cold front to the region by Tuesday, but this front will also
stall. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for Tuesday and Wednesday. To continue the wet and unsettled
pattern, a large trough will set up over the Inter-Mountain West
and send a few shortwaves in its wake. 500 mb height falls are
rather impressive as the trough makes its way across Texas.
Current guidance has the highest chances and probabilities of
severe weather ingredients towards southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana. The large trough is still a ways away, but warrants
continued monitoring. Another thing to keep in mind is heavy
precipitation during this pattern. The LREF is signaling a heavy
rainfall axis of accumulating greater than 3" by late next week
across the AR/TX/OK tri-state stretching towards Little Rock
approaching a 50% chance. These probabilities are lower across
the Mid-South (10-30%), but this axis of heavy rainfall could
easily set up elsewhere. Nonetheless, keep your eye on the
forecast as unsettled weather is upon us.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail as a weak ridge shifts across the
Midsouth. A midlevel cloud deck should continue to erode this
afternoon. South to southwest winds will increase to around 10 kts
with gusts near 20kts through sunset and remain a bit
elevated(5-8 kts) tonight. Winds will increase again tomorrow to
around 10kts with gusts between 20 and 25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Minimum RH values will remain elevated (50-60%) as return flow
continues to bring in moisture. Gusty winds combined with dry
soils could cause a minuscule grass fire threat for Saturday, but
RH values reside high enough. A wet and unsettled pattern will
kick off on Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms with
wetting rain chances forecast each day.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...JDS